Emerging Issues, Trends,

1
Emerging Issues, Trends, Initiatives
August 5, 2008
Office of the Commissioner of Higher Education
2
14 campuses serving 42,000
students each semester
Daniels
Sheridan
Glacier
Toole
Hill
Lincoln
Liberty
Valley
Flathead
Blaine
Roosevelt
Pondera
Phillips
Chouteau
Richland
Teton
Lake
Sanders
McCone
Lewis and Clark
Dawson
Garfield
Cascade
Fergus
Petroleum
Judith Basin
Mineral
Missoula
Prairie
Meagher
Powell
Musselshell
Wheatland
Granite
Custer
Broadwater
Treasure
Fallon
Deer Lodge
Golden Valley
Jefferson
Ravalli
Rosebud
Yellowstone
Sweet Grass
Silver Bow
Gallatin
Stillwater
Carter
Big Horn
Powder River
Park
Madison
Carbon
Beaverhead
3
ENROLLMENT DISTRIBUTION
Student FTE Distribution by Institution Type

Annual Average FTE 2007-08
Includes community colleges
7,445 FTE
4
ENROLLMENT DISTRIBUTION
Student FTE Distribution by Institution Type

Annual Average FTE 2007-08
Includes community colleges
5
ENROLLMENT TRENDS
Total Student FTE by Institution Type Cumulative
Percent Change, 1998 - 2008
MUS all campuses, including CCs
2-year COTs CCs
BA/MA
TECH, MSUB, UMW, MSUN Flagships
MSU UM
Source MUS Official Enrollment Report
6
Emerging Issues Trends
Overall, College Participation Rates in Montana
are Low
Percent of the Total Population Enrolled in
College 18
to 64 Year Olds, Fall 2007
source NCES, IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey, MT
data Fall 2006, WICHE states Fall 2004
7
Emerging Issues Trends
Low Percentage of Adults Enrolled in Higher
Education
Percent of Population 25 Years and Older Enrolled
in College Fall 2007
Montana ranks last in the West and 49th in Nation
source NCES, IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey U.S.
Census Bureau
8
Emerging Issues Trends
Few Opportunities for Early College Access
Percent of Population 15 to 17 Years Old Enrolled
in College Fall 2007
Montana ranks last in the West and 45th in Nation
source NCES, IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey U.S.
Census Bureau
9
Emerging Issues Trends
College Continuation Rates are Above Regional
Average
but we still have room to improve
On average, 35 of recent high school graduates
enter the MUS, 5 enroll in tribal or private
colleges in Montana, while 15 choose to enroll
out-of-state.
source NCES, IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey, MT
data Fall 2006, WICHE states Fall 2004
10
Emerging Issues Trends
Low Percentage of Students Enrolled in Two-year
Colleges
Includes Tribal Colleges
source IPEDS
source IPEDS, Fall 2006 estimates, includes
Tribal Colleges
11
Emerging Issues Trends
2-year Tuition in Montana is Relatively High
2-year Tuition Fees as a Percent of 4-year
Tuition Fees Average Annual
Resident Undergraduate Tuition Fees, 2005-06
source NCES, IPEDS
12
Emerging Issues Trends
Retention Rates at 2-Year Campuses are Below the
Regional Average
Freshmen Retention Rates at 2-year Public
Institutions 2006-07 Students Entering Fall 2006,
Returning Fall 2007
source IPEDS
source IPEDS, Fall 2006 estimates, includes
Tribal Colleges
13
Emerging Issues Trends
Retention Rates at 4-Year Campuses are Below the
Regional Average
Freshmen Retention Rates at 4-year Public
Institutions 2006-07 Students Entering Fall 2006,
Returning Fall 2007
source IPEDS
source IPEDS, Fall 2006 estimates, includes
Tribal Colleges
14
Emerging Issues Trends
Over 1/3 of Recent MT Graduates Require
Remediation
Remediation Rate (def.) percent of recent
Montana high school graduates enrolling in
remedial math or English in the fall semester
immediately following graduation.
2002-03 Grads Enrolling Fall 03
2003-04 Grads Enrolling Fall 04
2004-05 Grads Enrolling Fall 05
2005-06 Grads Enrolling Fall 06
2006-07 Grads Enrolling Fall 07
source MUS Data Warehouse (does not include
comm. colleges)
15
Emerging Issues Trends
Distance Learning is Becoming Increasingly Popular
source IPEDS
source IPEDS, Fall 2006 estimates, includes
Tribal Colleges
16
Emerging Issues Trends
Transferability of Credit is a Hot Topic
New Transfer Student Enrolling in the MUS Each
Fall Semester Fall
2001 Fall 2007
source IPEDS
source IPEDS, Fall 2006 estimates, includes
Tribal Colleges
17
Emerging Issues Trends
Number of High School Graduates is Declining
Projected Percentage Change in Public High School
Graduates 200304 through 201617
-17
MT Grads 2004 10,500 2017 8,700
68
source NCES, Projections of Education Statistics
18
Emerging Issues Trends
College Continuation Rates

Percent of high school graduates
enrolled as 1st-time, degree-seeking college
students in the fall semester immediately
following graduation
In order to maintain the base number of recent
high school graduates attending the MUS,
Montanas continuation rate must increase to 70.
source NCES, IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey high
school enrollment - WICHE, Knocking at the
College Door - 2003
19
Emerging Issues Trends
Montana Produces Graduates!
Ratio of Degrees Awarded to Students Enrolled,
2005
Bachelor's Degrees Awarded per 100
Undergraduates (headcount)
12.0
Factoid 69 of MT Residents Receiving Bachelors
Degrees were Employed in Montana Following
Graduation
8.9
Source IPEDS, NCHEMS
20
Emerging Issues Trends
MUS Graduates are Finding Employment in Montana
Percent of Resident Graduates Entering Montanas
Workforce 2004-05
Graduates Employed Within One Year
source NCES, IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey U.S.
Census Bureau
21
Emerging Issues Trends
Montana is Attracting a Young Workforce
Net Migration
Flow of
Population Moving in and out of Montana
2000 Net
Migration
2005 Net
Migration
22-34 year olds
Net Migration 4,562
(importing)
22-34 year olds
Net Migration -2,171
(exporting)
Native Montanans are Returning Home
Source U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American
Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample
File. Represents annual average net migration,
1995-2000.
22
Emerging Issues Trends
Research Development Continues to Grow
MUS Research Development Expenditures
FY
1998 - FY 2006 Actual, FY 2010 Projected
source National Science Foundation
23
Emerging Issues Trends
Enrollment in Graduate Programs Lags Behind Peers
Percent of Higher Education Enrollment in
Graduate Programs
Unduplicated Headcount at Public Private
Institutions, Fall 2006
source NCES, IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey
24
Emerging Issues Trends

• Unmet Need of Students Receiving Pell Grants
  (note Pell serves
  as low-income, need-based indicator)

MSU UM Figures (avg), 2006-07
Unmet financial need continues to grow when cost
of attendance outpaces financial aid resources.
Total unmet need 70 Million (N 6,859
Pell Recipients)
25
Emerging Issues Trends
Financial Aid for Low Income Students is Limited
State Funded Need Based Aid per Student FTE
2002-03 thru
2005-06
Source NASSGAP Survey, IPEDS
regional peers WICHE states minus CA
Even with recent increases to financial aid
programs, need-based aid in Montana still lags
behind the regional average.
26
Emerging Issues Trends
Percentage of Students Receiving Financial Aid

• Percentage of 1st time students receiving aid,
  AND
• Ratio of Tuition to Median Household Income,
  2005-06

Montana students are more likely to receive
financial aid than student from other western
states. One reason is that tuition in Montana is
higher relative to median household income.
27
ENROLLMENT TRENDS
Western Undergraduate Exchange (WUE)
2003 to 2007
27
source WICHE
28
ENROLLMENT TRENDS
Western Undergraduate Exchange (WUE)
Net Migration by State Fall 2007
source WICHE
29
Emerging Issues Trends
Trend of Declining State Support Shifted in 2008
MUS Funding History by Revenue Sources
MUS
Education Units, Fiscal Years 1992, 1997, 2002 -
2009
back
source OCHE Fiscal Affairs
30
Emerging Issues Trends
Cost per FTE is Below the Regional Average
Total Revenue per FTE

FY07, Public Institutions (FTE for MT MUS
Official FTE)
back
Source IPEDS
31
Projected Percent Change in Labor Force by Age

2006-2016
Emerging Issues Trends
Montanas Workforce Continues to Age
2006 Pop.Totals 5,026 16,
074 83,421 321,312 79,566
31
32
Projected Population and Labor Force

2007-2030
Emerging Issues Trends
Population Growth.Labor Force Decline?
Population
If current Census projections hold, Montanas
population will continue to increase, while
numbers in the labor force decline.
Labor Force
33
Emerging Issues Trends

• The number of high school graduates is declining.
• Expected to drop from approximately 10,500 to
  8,500 graduates by 2017.
• Montanas population will continue to grow,
  mostly in the older age categories. By 2017
• 50 age group expected to increase by 22.
• 15 to 19 years expected to decrease by 13.
• The University System needs to adapt in order to
  ensure graduates are meeting workforce demands.

34
Current Strategic Initiatives
35
Emerging Initiatives
2-year Education Delivery System Develop a more
coordinated approach to 2-year education in the
Montana University System.
Graduate Research Programs Invest in graduate
student stipends to help fuel research programs
and economic development in Montana.
Targeted Financial Aid Create an incentive for
students to attend 2-year and 4-year
institutions (excluding flagships).
Pool for Critical Salary Issues Establish a pool
of funds to address retention and recruitment of
faculty and staff.