The Impact of Long-range Transport on US PM Prediction

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The Impact of Long-range Transport on US PM
Prediction

• Ho-Chun Huang, Youhua Tang, Dongchul Kim, Sarah
  Lu, Marina Tsidulko, Caterina Tassone, Jianping
  Huang, Jeff McQueen1, William Lapenta1, Geoff
  DiMego1, Stephen Lord1, Ivanka Stajner2, Arlindo
  daSilva3, Mian Chin3, and Thomas Diehl4
• SAIC 1NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC 2Noblis 3NASA/GSFC
  4UMBC
• International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting
  Research
• Boulder, Colorado December 2-3 2009

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Outline

• Overview of NCEPs GFS-GOCART offline global
  aerosol modeling system
• Impact of trans-continental and Intercontinental
  aerosols transports
• Discussion and Summary

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GFS-GOCART Offline System

• GFS
• NCEP/EMC Global Forecast System
  (http//wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/gdas)
• GOCART
• NASA Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol
  Radiation and Transport Model (GFDL, ESRL
  FIM-Chem, GEOS-Chem Chin et al., 2000, 2002, and
  2004)

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GOALS

• To serve as an initial benchmark for a planned
  inline implementation
• To provide modeled aerosol fields for
  assimilation of satellite and in-situ data
• To provide aerosol lateral boundary conditions
  for regional air quality forecasting (AQF)
  systems

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GOCART Aerosols

• Dust (in radius)
• 0.1 1.0 µm 1.0 1.8 µm 1.8 3.0 µm
• 3.0 6.0 µm 6.0 10.0 µm
• black carbon
• hydrophobic and hydrophilic
• organic carbon
• hydrophobic and hydrophilic
• Sulfate
• SO2, Sulfate, DMS, and MSA
• sea-salt aerosols (in radius)
• 0.1 0.5 µm 0.5 1.5 µm 1.5 5.0 µm 5.0
  10.0 µm

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GOCART Processes

• Advection flux form semi-Lagrangian (Lin and
  Rood 1996)
• Boundary layer turbulent mixing (2nd closure
  scheme Helfand and Labraga 1988)
• Dry deposition the resistance method (Wesely
  1989 Walcek et al. 1986)
• Wet deposition rainout (Giorgi and Chameides
  1986), washout (Dana and Hale 1976), convective
  scavenging with moist convection (Allen et al.
  1996), and evaporation below the cloud
• Simple sulfur chemistry (Chin et al 2000) with
  prescribed OH, NO3, and H2O2 monthly averaged
  fields from IMAGES (Müller and Brasseur 1995)

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Impact of intercontinental transport of dust on
AQ

• Period May 1 to August 31, 2006
• NCEP National Air Quality Forecasting System
  (CMAQ)
• Older version of GFS meteorology

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GFS-GOCART Impact on AQFC
AQFC PM25 Conc. versus AIROW Obs.
The GFS-GOCART aerosol simulations provide
dynamic lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) to
National Air Quality Forecast Capability (AQFC)
to identify the intrusion due to long range
transport. The intrusions can never be resolved
by using present static LBCs. Inclusion of
Saharan dust transport in LBCs reproduces
enhancement of fine particular matter (PM2.5)
concentration in the 1st episode, and about half
of the enhancement in the 2nd episode (right
panels).
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Submicron aerosol

• Daily averages of Mt. Bachelor aerosol and
  GFS-GOCART dust
• Mt. Bachelor observatory is at 43.98ºN, 121.69ºW,
  2.7 km altitude

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Impact of long-range transport of biomass burning
particles on AQ

• Period May 1 to August 31, 2006
• Emission GFEDv2 8day AVG data
• GFS Q1FY10 operational

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Impact from Mexico Fires
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Impact from Boreal Forest Fires
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Impact from Siberia Fires
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GOCART Emissions

• Dust ? Driven by meteorology field
• Seasalt ? Driven by meteorology field
• Anthropogenic emissions ? Need global emissions
  database
• Biomass burning ? Need real-time global emissions
  for forecasting as well as type of fire and plume
  injection height
• Volcanic emissions ? Need real-time global
  emissions for forecasting

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Challenge for PM Forecasting Research versus
Forecasting

• Global scale emissions and in nearreal time
• Network of global geostationary and orbital
  satellites (QFED, FLAMB, GFAS)
• Projection for future fire emissions
• Need to finish runs within specific time limit
  (wall-clock)
• Complexity of physical and chemical processes
  incorporated
• Species mapping between global and regional
  Chemical-Transport Model (CTM)
• Improve forward model first guess with
  assimilated satellite aerosol information

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Summary

• The long-rang transport of aerosols has
  significant impact on the US PM forecast
• The need for the realistic estimation of
  emissions of various aerosols globally and in
  near real-time
• Continuous improvements of GFS-GOCART emissions
  and transport processes
• Include anthropogenic aerosols
• Include sea-salt aerosol
• Data Assimilation using satellite observations

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Backup slides
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2006 August Biomass Burning - South Africa
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2006 August Biomass Burning - South America