Gas Flows and Tarification presentation at Madrid Forum V 78 February 2002

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Gas Flows and Tarificationpresentation at Madrid
Forum V7-8 February 2002
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Gas Flows and Tarification

• Invitation to GTE to develop gas flow charts
  reflecting different circumstances
• Intention is to develop a cost reflective
  tariff system over the European Network to avoid
  pancaking

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Gas Flows and Tarification

• However Observation of physical flows in most
  circumstances does not give relevant
  information for tarification- transmission
  systems have been designed according to the
  service sold by the TSO, i.e. capacity
  rights- tariff should therefore be related to
  physical capacity irrespective of actual flows in
  the network- physical flows at the border are
  the result of decisions taken by shippers

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Gas Flows and Tarification

• Publication of physical flows at the border in
  crisis back-up situations are not acceptable to
  shippers- sensitive information with impact
  on security of supply - sensitive information
  with respect to measures of shippers how to cope
  with interruptions - sensitive information with
  respect to contract flexibilities, relative
  prices, possibility for interruptions
• Gas Flows are determined by shippers

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Gas Flows and Tarification

• Moreover Deriving gas flows for any future
  scenario would lead to a mismatch of gas flows
  at cross-border points- gas flows at
  cross-border points are the result of
  individual portfolio optimisation of shippers
  under a given scenario
• - portfolio optimisation is depending i.a. on
  contractual provisions and especially also on
  price differentials

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Gas Flows and Tarification

• GTE however has explored the possibility to
  collect historical data about flows at
  cross-border points- peak day
  statistics- data is commercially dead4 day
  average from 27. 12 to 30.12.1996 has been
  chosen

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(No Transcript)
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Flow of Russian Gas to Europe (2000)
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Gas flows
4 day average from26.12. 31.12.1996
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St. Fergus (132mcm)
UK Forecast Peak Supply/Demand (Winter 2001-2)
Irish Interconnector (23mcm)
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Teesside (36mcm)
Barrow (53mcm)
Point of Ayr (3mcm)
Easington (65mcm)
Theddlethorpe (34mcm)
Bacton(107mcm)
Other Supply LNG Storage
56mcm Other Storage 26mcm Other
Demand NTS Power Generation 68mcm NTS
Industrial 11mcm
European Interconnector (14mcm)
10 October 2001
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St. Fergus (94mcm)
UK Average Supply/Demand (2730 December 1996)
Irish Interconnector (5mcm)
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Teesside (3mcm)
Barrow (59mcm)
Easington (33mcm)
Theddlethorpe (34mcm)
Bacton(92mcm)
Other Supply Storage
20mcm Other Demand NTS Power Generation
32mcm NTS Industrial 6mcm
23 January 2001
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Peak day scenarios
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BP statistical review of world energy 2001
source bp statistical review of world energy 2001
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UK Supply/Demand 27-30th December 1996
Supply
Demand
All figures in mcm
All figures in mcm