Winona Area Housing Study

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Welcome
Winona Area Housing Study January 2009
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Welcome

• Community Partners Research, Inc.
• Scott Knudson and Steve Griesert

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Housing Study

• Housing Study was initiated by City of Winona and
  Southeast MN Multi-County HRA
• Research finalized in November 2008

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Major Reasons for Study

• Last study completed in 1999
• Strong housing markets in early 2000s lead to
  changes in housing stock
• Projections for future growth and anticipated
  housing needs

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Research and Data

• U.S. Census and State Demographer
• City and County Records building permits, sales
  reports, foreclosures
• Interviews with City and community leaders
• Telephone survey of larger rental properties
• Data collection from colleges and universities

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Study Contents

• Executive Summary
• Introduction
• Demographic Estimates and Trends
• Demographic Projections
• Student Data
• Housing Affordability and Income
• Existing Housing Inventory

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Study Contents

• Rental Housing Analysis
• Special Needs Housing
• Employment and Economic Trends
• Affordable Housing Development Strategies
• Best Practices in Affordable Single Family
  Development
• Findings and Recommendations

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Demographic Highlights

• The City of Winona was analyzed, along with a
  surrounding market area, referred to as Greater
  Winona
• Greater Winona includes the Cities of Goodview,
  Minnesota City, Rollingstone, and Stockton and
  the Townships of Hillsdale, Homer, Rollingstone,
  Warren, Wilson, and also Buffalo Township, WI

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Demographic Highlights

• Official demographic estimates are low
• Community Partners Research created our own
  estimates, using the best information on housing
  unit creation and occupancy rates
• We believe that Greater Winona has as many as 200
  more households than the official sources would
  estimate

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Projection Highlights

• Since current-year estimates are low, most
  available projections are also very conservative
• We conservatively project that Greater Winona
  will average as many as 80 new households per
  year through 2015

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Projection Highlights

• We have projected that approximately half of this
  growth, or 40 households per year will be in
  Winona
• This could be very conservative if housing
  construction activity rebounds
• Student households in college housing would
  generally not be considered as households

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Projection Highlights

• The growth potential for the larger region is
  substantial the State Demographer projects more
  than 11,000 households will be added between 2005
  and 2015 in a six-County region
• More than 80 is in Olmsted County

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Age Projection Highlights

• Aging trends show and increase in the population
  age 55 and older, and a decrease in the
  population age 54 and younger
• This is not unique to Winona County these are
  regional, state and national trends, and reflect
  the baby boomers

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Age Projection Highlights

• Age group showing the largest net growth will be
  55 to 64 year old households through 2015
• The only age group under 55 that is expected to
  increase in size is 25 to 34 year old households

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Student Population Highlights

• Students have big demographic impact in 2000,
  students represented 25 of Winonas population
• All of the net population growth since 2000 can
  be attributed to student growth, according to
  official estimates

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Student Population Highlights

• Winona States enrollment is up by more than
  1,100 students since 2000
• However, projections expect a decline in
  traditional student populations for the next five
  years but this is not college-specific
  Winonas institutions may not follow this trend

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Income and Affordability Highlights

• Winona Countys median household income was
  estimated at 46,431 in 2008 up 20 from the
  2000 Census
• Winonas median household income was 38,935 in
  2008 up 18 from the Census

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Income and Affordability Highlights

• The median household income for renters is
  generally well below the overall median
• The median income for families and home owners is
  typically higher

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Income and Affordability Highlights

• Affordable Housing is a relative term
• We defined affordable ownership at 127,400
• We defined affordable rental at 640 per month

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Existing Housing Highlights

• Winona has an older-than-average stock of housing
  pre-1940 houses represented 52 of
  owner-occupancy stock in 2000 more than double
  the Statewide average
• The percentage of older rental housing was also
  high 51 pre-1960 housing in Winona and 35
  Statewide

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Existing Housing Highlights

• Building permits show more than 700 housing units
  constructed in Winona since 2000 including WSU
  housing
• However, 77 of these were between 2001 and 2004
• Unit losses have also occurred, including
  Northwood Apartments

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Existing Housing Highlights

• Adjusting for unit losses and housing that is
  specialized, i.e. student, the City has probably
  added about 400 units for permanent resident
  households
• Strong housing construction has also occurred in
  Goodview and Stockton

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Existing Housing Highlights

• The median sale price for existing homes in
  Winona was approximately 130,000
• Approximately 73 of existing home sales were for
  less than 160,000
• Most newly constructed homes in Winona were in
  higher price ranges

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Rental Housing Highlights

• A large inventory of rental housing exists
  probably 4,800 to 5,000 total units in Greater
  Winona
• Students may represent 1,200 renter households
• Specialized senior housing and regional center
  status contribute to rental demand

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Rental Housing Highlights

• Overall occupancy rates are very high
• Almost no vacancies in market rate housing or tax
  credit units
• Some vacancies in subsidized housing, but most
  projects also had waiting lists

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Rental Housing Highlights

• Some weakness in student demand was reported at
  the time of the survey, but indications were that
  late acceptances were causing a second round of
  demand
• Senior assisted living was the only identified
  sub-sector with a vacancy rate above 5

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Rental Housing Highlights

• Production of rental housing has occurred since
  2000, but much of the net gain in traditional
  rental housing was offset by lost units, such as
  Northwood Apartments
• Growth has occurred in student housing, including
  East Lake Apartments

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Employment and Economic Trends

• Winona County has consistently had a low rate of
  unemployment 4.2 in 2007 compared to 4.6
  Statewide 2008 has probably changed
• 2007 average annual wage was 32,604 for all
  industries Statewide average was 44,356

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Affordable Development Strategies

• Information complied by the Greater MN Housing
  Fund on site selection, lots, streets, homes and
  landscape systems
• GMHF has worked on affordable development in St.
  Peter, Marshall and Worthington

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Best Practices Section

• Examples used by other communities to generate
  above-average levels of new housing construction
• Often based on community subsidies to write-down
  the end sale price of new single family homes and
  lots

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Washington Crossings
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Jimmy Carter Place
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Findings and Recommendations Highlights

• Section starts with recap of growth and
  projections what is most reliable prediction
• Recommendations are grouped
• Rental Housing
• Home Ownership
• Housing Rehabilitation
• Policy issues

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Rental Recommendations

• Demand calculations show the need for between 390
  and 560 additional rental units through 2015
• Our recommendations include a mix of units by
  price including higher rent, moderate rent, and
  income-based housing

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Rental Recommendations

• Opportunity exists for up to 100 units to serve
  higher income segment of the market luxury
  segment is under served
• Traditional market rate rental in more modest
  price range should represent the majority of the
  units potential for up to 200 units

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Rental Recommendations

• Tax credit units serve moderate income but has
  occupancy restrictions and income limits
  potential exists for up to 125 additional units
• Goal of producing some additional subsidized
  housing for low income families but few
  resources exist and deep subsidies will typically
  be needed

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Rental Recommendations

• Student housing expansion is likely to occur if
  good sites exist near WSU
• Latest WSU project could impact this Study
  assumed not net gain of on-campus housing
• Possible decline in traditional student
  enrollment should be monitored

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Rental Recommendations

• Good senior housing with services options exist
  in Winona
• Light services, or congregate senior housing is
  the biggest gap up to 47 units could be added

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Rental Recommendations

• Assisted living and memory care markets are well
  served potential surplus of assisted living
  units exists Countywide
• Possible program opportunity to add a services
  option in existing subsidized senior housing

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Rental Recommendations

• Any future rental development in Winona will face
  land issues conversations with multifamily
  developers indicate few options
• Special needs issues will continue to exist
  some addressed in Rochester and La Crosse
  others locally

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Home Ownership Recommendations

• The demand calculations used for this Study
  showed most future demand for housing will be
  owner-occupancy
• Most of this demand will come from households age
  55 to 74 years old
• Trade-up housing should be strong

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Home Ownership Recommendations

• To address the entry-level segment of the market
  proactive efforts are probably required
• If affordable target is around 127,400 then
  subsidies would be needed to generate production
  in this price range, especially in Winona

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Home Ownership Recommendations

• Trade-up market should remain the strongest
  portion of the market through 2015 growth from
  55 and older households
• Attached single family should remain strong 25
  to 30 market share is probable

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Home Ownership Recommendations

• Private development community has responded
  multiple subdivisions exist with primarily
  higher priced lots in Winona
• Recent subdivisions include Creekwood,
  Cobblestone Creek and the Meadows

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Home Ownership Recommendations

• Goodview, Rollingstone and Stockton all have
  active subdivisions
• Winona has looked for infill and redevelopment
  options for more affordable ownership
• Some communities use affordable set-asides for
  price diversity

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Rehabilitation Recommendations

• Winona has been active in housing rehab and in
  setting rental certification standards with a
  large stock of older housing these efforts will
  be ongoing
• With slowdown in the affordable new construction
  markets, resources are focusing more on rehab

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Housing Rehabilitation
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Policy Issues

• Research for the Study identified a number of
  issues related to public policy and housing
• Issues have been identified without an opinion

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Policy Issues

• 30 Rental Housing Density
• Three Unrelated Individual Occupancy Limit Per
  Unit
• Re-Zoning Requests in Areas Around WSU Campus
• City Assessment Policy
• City Trunk Line Fee Adds to Residential
  Development Costs
• AUAR Process Resulted in Lower Densities for
  Future Subdivision Development
• Bluff Land Protective Buying

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Thanks for coming today