Innovation in Terrorist Behavior

1
Innovation in Terrorist Behavior

• Martha Crenshaw
• Wesleyan University

2
What is Innovation?

• Adoption of new patterns of behavior
• Ideas incorporated into action
• Types
• Strategic
• Tactical
• Organizational
• Distinguishing the original from the derivative

3
Explaining Innovation and Adaptation

• Problem solving and analogical reasoning
• New logical connections
• Problems redefined and routines stretched
• New solution
• New association of familiar methods
• Modification of the known to fit the new
• Result of learning not inspiration
• Not necessarily due to failure of other methods
• Role of entrepreneurs intrinsic motivation
• Stimuli
• Governments innovation
• New opportunities and resources
• New constituencies
• Intra-movement rivalries

4
Strategic Innovation

• Shifts that transform nature of terrorist
  challenge
• Exceptional and rare
• Requires new conception of strategic
  effectiveness
• New goal
• New way of relating operations to goal

5
Tactical and Organizational Innovation

• Tactics
• Change in method, not strategic conceptualization
• New weapons and targets
• More frequent than strategic innovations
• Organizations
• Change in group structure (e.g., hierarchy vs.
  flat or leaderless)
• Open underground vs. clandestinity
• Alliances

6
Diffusion of Innovation

• How?
• Direct contact
• Imitation
• Observation
• Media transmission (television, internet)
• Which innovations?
• Appearance of success
• Ease of use
• Salience and publicity
• To whom?
• Identification processes
• Reference groups and role models

7
Example Suicide Terrorism

• Origins in Iran-Iraq War, 1980-1988
• Hezbollah as revolutionary model, 1983-2000
• Religious sanction by Shiite clerics
• Aided by Iran
• Targets
• Embassies (American, Israeli)
• Military headquarters/barracks (American, French,
  Israeli)
• Israeli army convoys
• Transnational reach (Argentina 1992 1994)
• Primarily vehicle bombs
• Imitated by secular political parties
• Participation by women
• Videotaping

8
Suicide Terrorism The Diffusion and
Adaptation of Innovation

• LTTE in Sri Lanka 1987-
• Assassinations of prominent leaders, including
  Tamils
• Economic, transportation, military, religious
  targets
• Human bombs
• Specialized suicide units including women
• Hamas Palestinian Islamic Jihad 1993-
• Aim mass civilian casualties
• Attacks on urban centers within Green Line
• Culture of martyrdom in Sunni community
• Imitation by PFLP and Fatah (Al Aqsa Martyrs
  Brigade)
• Human bombs
• No US targets

9
Evolution of suicide terrorism Al Qaeda

• Al Qaeda 1988-
• Relationship to Egyptian Islamic Jihad
• Shift to anti-US 1996
• 9/11
• Global reach
• Pre 9/11 (Kenya, Tanzania, Yemen, Afghanistan,
  Italy, US, Jordan. . . .)
• Post 9/11(Tunisia, Indonesia, Kenya, Saudi
  Arabia, Morocco, Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt,
  England, Bangladesh. . . .)
• Combination of organizations
• Underground conspiracy
• Social movement/volunteers
• Business enterprise
• Transnational
• Forced decentralization post 9/11
• Variety of targets (diplomatic, military,
  economic, civilian, religious)
• Narrow focus

10
Suicide terrorism in Iraq 2003-

• Organizations
• Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia 2004-
• Mujahideen Shura Council 2006-
• Ansar al Sunna
• Unknowns
• Sectarian dimension
• Pakistan as model?
• Multiple targeting of civilians, police,
  military, coalition forces, local authorities
• Frequency
• Palestinians 1993-2005, estimated 142 attacks
• Iraq 2004-2005, 544 car bombs alone
• Context of insurgency
• External reach (Jordan)