REALITY The Cost of Error

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REALITY The Cost of Error

• Wednesday 18th October 2006
• RAF Bentley Priory
• David King, Chief Inspector of Air Accidents

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Topics to cover.

• What is the reality of the industry approach to
  the cost of error?
• Are we proportionate in our responses?
• What are the costs? Do we know?
• If we know are we selling the case for an
  appropriate response?

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Reality what underlies appearances - on the
surface industry seems to accept much of the
cost? -disproportionate response to cost! Cost
the price to be paid due to delays,
cancellations, turn backs, incidents,
Accidents What is the price ? direct vs
indirect Do we know?
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• The vast amount of data on accidents and
  incidents is in stark contrast to the paucity of
  cost data on those same events.
• Even more difficult to assess is the cost of not
  having an incident. (Simmons 2005)

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Ground Accidents FOD!
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Ground Accidents (Civil) Direct cost estimate
c 5 Billion pa 200 fatalities
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• Save One Minute initiative
• Raise awareness of Air Navigation Providers
• Average Air Transport Flight Time 97 minutes
• 40 million flights per year 400 billion
• Saving 1 minute per flight would potentially save
  
• 4 Billion per year.

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Direct Costs

• Rework costs
• Airport/hangar charges
• Loss of ticket revenue
• Refreshments, compensation (EC Reg N0 261/2004
  )
• Diversion
• Fuel
• Labour overtime (airport staff, crew)
• Hotel
• Alternative flight
• Loss of cargo revenue

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Indirect Costs

• Further impact on scheduling
• Damage to reputation
• Loss of goodwill
• Reduction in Flight Crew confidence
• Adverse impact on individuals/Depts

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Delay Costs Timeline Revised 2005
720 / Cancellation
90
180
360
0
120
240
Delay time
STD
Airport Parking / GPU Charges
Pax Re-protection / Airport Staff OT /
Engineering Costs (where applicable)

• Discount 3 on future flight / flying miles
• Hotel, meal(s), transport
• Ramp
• Catering meal change
• Cargo lost revenue

• Refreshment 1
• Phone card

• Refreshment 2
• Discount1 on future flight / flying miles

• Refreshment 3
• Discount2 on future flight / flying miles

• Catering - Dry ice

• Catering - replace perishables and dry ice

Cost Elements
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Delay Costs Build-up Grand Total 2005
Fleet
Cost
Delay Time 03/04 (mins)
Avg Cost per Min
A340 747-400 747-200 Cancellation TOTAL
42.48 50.03 62.84 - 47.67
4.9M 5.5M 1.3M 5.4M 17.0M
175,372 160,894 20,688 0 356,954
Average cost per cancellation 73,972
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Maintenance errors

• 60-80 of aviation accidents are attributed to
  human error- maintenance and inspection errors
  have contributed 9-23.
• Contributed to 15 of commercial jet accidents
  (Boeing 1995)
• Maintenance problems are the 2nd greatest
  contributor to onboard fatalities, following CFIT
  (UK CAA, 1992)

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Maintenance errors

• 20-30 of engine in-flight shutdowns and 50 of
  engine-related flight delays/cancellations are
  caused by maintenance error. (Boeing 1997)
• 48,800 unairworthy aircraft are dispatched per
  year as a result of maintenance error (Marx 1998)

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Commercial Maintenance Incident Costs (c 2000)

• Average cost of-
• Rework ??
• In-flight engine shutdown 500k
• Flight cancellation 50k
• Return to gate 15k
• Ground damage incident 70k

(1m)
(73k)
(30)
(140)
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Military Maintenance Incidents

• FOD Following a series of engine ground runs
  boroscopic investigation revealed that 3 of the
  Stage 4 compressor blades were damaged. At under
  200 hrs, engine changed.
• Ground Damage During night shift the minibus
  driver reversed into the aircraft damaging its
  port aileron.
• Procedures The left hand undercarriage door .
  remained locked when hydraulic power was applied
  on the ground twisting it. The door had been
  manually raised and locked and not returned to
  the open position.

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Military Maintenance Incident Costs

• Diversion
• Fuel
• Labour overtime (staff, crew)
• Alternative tasking
• Failed mission loss of ground support?
• Further impact on mission scheduling
• Damage to reputation
• Reduction in Flight Crew confidence
• Adverse impact on individuals/Depts

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Excalibur Charter airline suffered a serious
incident in 1993
In 1996 a series of maintenance problems resulted
in delays, a rejected take-off and further
departure delays. The delays and costs of
rectification, further delays, costs of finding a
replacement aircraft and adverse publicity put
the airline into receivership!
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REALITY The Cost of Error
We do not know what it costs but
Direct indirect Ms
Damage to reputation Loss of goodwill
Damage to staff
Loss of the business
Loss of life
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we need to rethink how we are delivering the
message?
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QUESTIONS?