Emerging telecom industry lanscape

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Emerging telecom industry lanscape

• Has the 96 Act failed?
• Confused political assurances w/ economic
  motivations
• Misunderstood difficulty, thus lacked enforcement
  mechanisms
• Oversold short-term benefits
• The RBOC's revenge Re-emergence of large,
  vertically integrated telcoslocal /
  long-distance / business networks
• WirelessVerizon Wireless - 26.3 mCingular
  Wireless - 19 m (SBC BellSouth)ATT Wireless -
  15 mSprint PCS - 9.2 mNextel Communications -
  6.2 million.
• Fiber troubles
• Residential access 75 BB availability, 11
  take-upWiFi surprise?
• Next wave of consolidation

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What Telecom Bust?

• Two distinct events
• Dot-com bust
• Telecom collapse
• Not demand nor technology bust
• (over) supply bust - 1990's investment
• New entrants
• Economics of fiber supply
• "Technology successfully met the challenge posed
  by unrealistic business plans that were
  formulated in willful disregard of real demand."
  (A. Odlyzko)

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Infrastructure

• 90s internet "free" bandwidth (from the open
  phone network)
• Today bifurcated situation
• Long-haul and CLECs crisis
• Local still holding
• What comes next?
• Re-verticalization
• Competitive bankruptcy
• "Let them fail fast"
• Challenge incentives for infrastructure
  investment

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Standards Architecture

• 90s internet
• Open standards (compete on implementation)
• End-to-end architecture
• Next-Generation
• Standards wars?
• Limits to E2E strategic incentives
• Challenge incentives for open / end-to-end?

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Lead users / leading applications

• 90s internet
• expanding communities military, research,
  education, mass-medium
• users (individual / corporate) invent the
  applications
• Productivity network-based re-organization of
  work
• Next-Generation
• User-led innovation requires user control
• Closed networks / fragmented user communities
• Challenge sustaining user-driven innovation

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"Consolidation, Integration Network Control"

• Some fundamental choices
• Consolidated Infrastructure or 'fibersphere'
• Integrated network or open architecture
• Supplier control or user-driven change