AMSA FUTURES FORUM

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AMSA FUTURES FORUM

• Mr. Terry R. Head, President
• International Association of Movers
• Alexandria, VA

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Who IAM IS

• The largest international trade association and
  advocacy group for household goods forwarders,
  movers and service providers
• Founded in 1962 to represent the interests of
  military TSPs broadened scope to commercial
  business in 1970s
• Currently provide the largest networking
  opportunity for business development
• Membership is currently 2,200 companies in more
  than 170 countries and territories

3
Recent Name Change

• Name changed January 1, 2009 from Household
  Goods Forwarders Association of America, Inc. to
  
• International Association of Movers
• To better recognize and serve the needs of the
  global membership
• Unanimous acceptance for both the name change and
  associations expanding mission

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HHGFAA becomes IAM
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• WHAT A DIFFERENCE
• A YEAR MAKES. . .

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One Year Ago

• Industry was adapting to a rapidly changing world
  of globalization
• The dollar was declining and impacted buying
  power particularly overseas
• Exports were increasing
• Ocean containers and slots on vessels were scarce
• Fuel, supplies and port costs were soaring

7
2008 Economic Impact

• More user fees, port, environmental and security
  surcharges
• More customs fees and physical inspections with
  resulting increases in loss/damage claims
• Increased costs for complying with cargo security
  requirements

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Environmental Impact

• Ports forcing cleaner trucks
• Quality of life issue in major markets
• Bans on older trucks
• Inception of Pier Pass
• Off-hour operations to further reduce emissions

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In this Economy (2009)

• WORLD BANK REPORT ON GLOBAL TRADE
• Weakest since 1970
• International trade will shrink for first time in
  25 years
• Growth in China to slow to 7.4 (09) vs. 9.4 in
  2008
• World Bank will triple loans to poor countries
  35 Billion in 2009, 110 Billion next 3 years
• Prediction Barrel of oil - 75 in 2009 / 30
  decline from the 2008 highs, but well above
  current level

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In this Economy

• U.N. Global Outlook Report
• Decline of export growth and capital inflows for
  U.S. developing countries
• 09 decline .5 vs. 5.3 upward in 2008
• U.S. GDP will decline 1
• Euro Zone down by .7
• Japan down by .3

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In this Economy

• OECD
• 8-10 million Europeans unemployed
• 13 of 16 Industrial Sectors in Euro Zone register
  negative growth
• Germany Switzerland are strongest performers
• Worldwide unemployment up 25 million by 2010

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In this Economy

• New U.S. Administration
  President Obama
• Pro trade or not?
• Whats the administrations priority for trade?
• Protectionism would exacerbatethe
• crisis
• All countries experiencing reduced customs
  revenues
• Will countries increase import duties and custom
  fees?

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In this Economy

• PIRATES!!
• In the Horn of Africa region
• Ocean carriers re-routing vessels away from Suez
  Canal
• Insurance for vessels and cargo is up
• (400mil / U.N. Security Council)
• Fuel (bunker) expenses higher due to longer
  voyage with transit times increasing
• U.S. Navy (6th Fleet) now engaging with U.S.
  Africa Command and NATO

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In this Economy

• Even the weather will be bad in 2009
• Forecast for 14 named storms
• 7 Hurricanes
• 3 Major category 3 to 5 (111mph)
• 70 days tropical storm winds in the Atlantic
  Basin alone
• 30 days hurricane conditions 6/1-11/30
• What will the impact be on ports and shipping?

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Impact on Working Abroad

• U.S. Expatriates Government/military personnel
  overseas find it hard to make ends meet as the
  dollar declines
• U.S. Companies pulling out of Europe and parts of
  South America
• International Labor Organization notes Latin
  America could lose 2.4 million jobs in 2009
  first increase in regions unemployment rate in 6
  years
• Malaysia bans foreign recruitment prohibits
  hiring of new foreign workers and foreign workers
  will be first in any workforce reductions

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In this Economy

• Shipment volume has increased in some markets but
  declined in others
• Middle East is hot despite global freeze
• Best of Times Worst of Times
• Some movers saw their worst year ever others
  saw their best year
• U.S. Government and Military traffic remained
  robust

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U.S. State Department

• HHG Shipments were
• 85 DPM (Despatch Agency)
• 15 Door-to-Door (ITGBL)
• HHG Shipments now
• 15 DPM
• 85 Door-to-Door
• Great opportunities for the moving industry to
  expand State Department shipment volumes

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Other Impacts on the Moving Industry

• DOD Families First changes name to Defense
  Personal Property Program or DP3 (best value
  vs. low cost)
• Initial Launch was November 2008 for 18 initial
  sites
• Worldwide roll-out Feb/March 2009
• Potential impact to TSP Agent capacities is
  unknown

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In this Economy

• The MOVING Landscape
• Global Expansion is losing speed
• Worldwide housing markets take a beating
• Companies are scaling back
• Dramatic currency fluctuations
• Sporadic credit policies
• Mover-to-Mover, Ocean/Air Carriers, Insurance
  Providers
• Oil prices are down -- but will they stay down?
• Despite cheap fuel, airlines brace for a 2.5
  Billion loss in 2009
• Asian air cargo dropped 22.6 - 4th Qtr 2008

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In this Economy

• Newly Expanded Security Requirements
• TSA Screening Mandate
• Unknown Shippers only on all-cargo air craft
• 50 cargo on passenger airlines by Feb. 2009
• 100 cargo on passenger airlines by Aug. 2010
• TSA will now screen international inbound cargo
• WHO? HOW? AT WHAT COST?
• New Security Bolt Seal Requirement
  ocean containers
• New 102 Importer Security Program
• TSA requires more data on shipments and shippers

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In this Economy

• How IAM is Helping
• International Shippers Association (ISA)
• A cooperative buying group
• Receivables Protection Program (RPP)
• Member Education
• How to survive in this economy
• Technology Partnership
• Common industry standards
• AMSA, CAM, FIDI, FEDEMAC, PAIMA

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In this Economy

• How IAM is Helping
• Advocacy
• Cooperating with AMSA, CAM State Associations
  via the National Council of Moving Associations
  (NCMA)
• Movers Benefit Trust healthcare
• Fix Housing First Coalition
• Maintaining Carmack Amendment
• Threat of Unionization
• Employee Free Choice Act
• Consumer Education
• Protection from SCAM operators

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• Today I say to you that the challenges we face
  are real. They are serious and they are many.
  They will not be met easily or in a short span of
  time. But know this, America
• they will be met.
• President Barrack Obama
  (excerpt from his inaugural address)

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• THANK YOU!
• International Association of Movers
• 47th Annual Meeting
• Orlando, Florida
• October 10-13, 2009
• www.IAMovers.org