Load Modeling Assumptions

1
Load Modeling Assumptions

• SSG-WI PWG/TSG Meeting
• November 9, 2005

2
RMATS Load Areas

• The RMATS Study load forecasts were gathered from
  the participants during the RMATS study, and
  escalated for 2015.
• Bubbles were defined by RMATS participants
• RMATS forecasts used include Colorado, Idaho,
  Montana, Utah, Wyoming, Montana, and northern
  Nevada
• Idaho (Roger Grimm) and Utah (Becky Wilson)
  provided updates.

3
Northwest

• For Oregon and Washington, the NWPPC (Terry
  Moreland) developed the forecasts to coordinate
  with the fixed hydro shape used.
• Two bubbles, NW-US west and NW-US east.
• For Alberta and British Columbia, the 2015
  forecast comes from WECC 2005 LR report 2014
  numbers for Canada,
• escalated to 2015 and
• proportioned to bubbles according to the FERC 714
  hourly data

4
Southwest

• New Mexico, Arizona, Southern Nevada, Imperial
  CA, and northern Mexico forecasts
• come from the 2005 WECC LR Report,
• escalated from 2014 (the last year in the
  report) to 2015, and
• proportioned into bubbles to match the average of
  several years historical (FERC form 714) data.

5
California

• Used annual forecasts from the CEC
• Monthly numbers developed using same monthly
  proportions as WECC LR report.
• Division into bubbles based upon proportions
  developed from FERC 714 historical data and input
  from Irina Green for summer months
• Division of northern California bubbles by Irina
  Green