NASA Kennedy Space Center Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis Capabilities and App

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NASA Kennedy Space CenterSpace Transportation
Operations Research and AnalysisCapabilities
and ApproachesJune 2002Edgar ZapataNASA,
Kennedy Space CenterFL 32899Systems Engineering
OfficeMailcode YA-D4-A(321) 867-6234
http//science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/rlvhp.h
tm
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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis Outline

• Space Transportation Operations Research and
  Analysis
• Tools
• Analysis Capabilities Available and in Use
• AATe
• AATe Software Usability Upgrade
• Vision Spaceport
• Design Environments ModelCenter
• AATe
• VSP Wrap into ModelCenter
• Design Environments AFRL and Adaptive Modeling
  Language (AML/Technosoft).
• GEM-FLO
• Research - Capabilities in Development
• Simulation Tools Dynacs Productivity Apex
  Inc. GEM-FLO (Dr. Steele)
• Simulation Toolkits - TEAMS (Glenn Rhodeside)
  (SBIR ph.1)
• Activity Based Costing by University of Texas, El
  Paso and CCT Corp, (STTR ph.1)
• Higher Fidelity Operations Turnaround Time
  Estimation Capability (OPSTAT)
• Knowledge Capture and Reasoning Discovery
  Machines Corp. TMK Methods (Jessica Mock) (SBIR
  ph.1)
• Summary

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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis Space Transportation Operations Research
and Analysis

• The focus of space transportation operations
  research and analysis as outlined in this
  briefing is to
• Provide meaningful insight for decision makers,
  designers, technologists and other analysts
  within the process of defining future space
  transportation systems.
• Provide insight at the earliest possible
  conceptual phases of design and decision making.
• Provide operations insight into the direction of
  space transportation systems investments for both
  flight and ground systems.
• Improve the vehicles, the Spaceports, and the
  systems of systems required to make space
  transportation routine and affordable within our
  lifetimes.

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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis Tools
Tools enable More rapid analysis. More
traceable answers. More easily understood
answers. More standard and equal processes over
time.
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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis Analysis Capabilities Available and In
Use

• Required for operations to be active in a design
  process
• Description of the concept
• Decisions and trades
• Concept information at an overall and a high
  sub-system level
• Power level on engines?
• Reliability, loss of vehicle?
• Architecture
• Toxic Fluids?
• OMS/RCS fluids?
• etc
• Insights from operations involvement include
• Qualitative areas for improvement, choice of
  technology
• Operating costs for the concept
• Fixed everything required to achieve a single
  launch capability
• Variable everything flight rate dependent

Shuttle Lessons Learned
Shuttle Data
Studies and Analysis
Subject Matter Experts - Ops
Tools and Techniques
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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis AATe
http//science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/AATe_In
fo.htm

• Conceptual tool about 25 minimum input
  variables.
• Allows more detail if available, up to 75 input
  variables (decisions).
• All Excel/Visual Basic user interface
• Semi-intuitive, friendly, external interface
• Ability to save concepts and reload later within
  the workbook (5 megs each, 3 workbooks, one for
  each stage, plus a 4th summary workbook)
• Complex internal workings involving both hard
  data and subject matter knowledge base matrixes

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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis AATe
http//science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/AATe_In
fo.htm

• Design screen is 1 of 2 required screens.
• Types of inputs are Ops driven not a weight or
  size based model.

Degree of sub-systems integration (simplicity)
Toxic fluids?
Number and selection of different fluids
Probability of Loss of Vehicle
Scaling, L, W, H, Dry Wt
Design Life
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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis AATe
http//science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/AATe_In
fo.htm

• When more concept design detail is available the
  tool provides some options for better definition.
  This is referred to as Level 2 capability.

• Number of fluidsestimate comparatively OR
  disable this calculation and enable a more
  refined calculation.
• View impacts of each fluid one by one by jumping
  to outputs

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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis AATe
http//science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/AATe_In
fo.htm

• Recent evolution integrated a Spaceport Facility
  and GSE acquisition cost estimator.
• The FACGSE spreadsheet calculates the acquisition
  costs based only on size and Shuttle historical
  data.
• The AATe takes these scaled values and further
  modifies them up/down based on the element design
  inputs.
• STILL EVOLVING tends to estimate high due to
  inclusion of engineering.
• Does not yet include changes in costs due to
  existing facilities or engineering.

• ENTER dimensionsOUT come FAC/GSE costs from
  scratch for that scale system IF the FAC/GSE was
  like Shuttle.
• AATe modifiers then process these results further
  to account for improvements

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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis AATe
http//science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/AATe_In
fo.htm

• Outputs include
• Turnaround Time, Landing to Launch
• Operations fixed costs
• Operations variable costs (per flight)
• Number of vehicles required to satisfy an
  inputted tonnage to orbit per year

• DOES NOT HAVE FLIGHT RATE AS AN INPUT GENERATES
  IT AS AN OUTPUT BY GENERATING TURN TIME PER
  SINGLE VEHICLE.

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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis AATe
http//science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/AATe_In
fo.htm

• Past and Current Applications
• Basic processes and assessment techniques used as
  far back as Access to Space
• Highly Reusable Space Transportation - used
  earliest rendition of technique, All-Rocket,
  Air-breathers, Single and Two Stage, all reusable
• Space Solar Power Study - Further refined model
  and multiple concepts
• Early 99 - In-house KSC LFBB/RFS special requests
  studies
• Space Transportation Architecture Study 99 - All
  reusable, multiple ETO systems
• Early 2001 request for AFRL SOV assessment, a
  TSTO RLV. Further collaborative arrangements to
  be defined in Nov. 2001.
• Through 2001 Integration into AEE (was RSTS,
  was ISE) in support of 2nd Gen / RLV, SLI.

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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis AATe
http//science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/AATe_In
fo.htm

• Current Users March 2002
• Lockheed Martin Denver (JSRA rights), supporting
  SLI / MSFC.
• SAIC Huntsville, (NDA) performing various
  contracts supporting SLI / MSFC.
• KT Engineering, (NDA) performing study contracts
  supporting SLI / MSFC.
• Boeing Phantom Works (JSRA rights), used as part
  of a contract task, RMLS study, for AFRL. Work
  complete.
• Honeywell Space Systems, Palmdale, (NDA)
  contracts supporting 2nd Gen / SLI / MSFC.
• Orbital Sciences Corp (OSC), (NDA) contracts
  supporting NRA 8-30 / MSFC.
• AFRL Future use / integration into AML as part
  of KSC support to RMLS effort.
• Northrop Grumman (through sub-contractors), (NDA)
  as a tool being integrated into the NG design
  environment (ModelCenter).
• Use Restrictions
• Free distribution to government (NASA, DoD) or
  KSC VSP JSRA member companies (Boeing,
  Lockheed-Martin, Command and Control Technologies
  Corp.)
• Distribution with NDA (non-disclosure agreement)
  restrictions to contractors doing work under
  government contract must identify government
  contract and government COTR.

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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis AATe Software Usability Upgrade

• Blue-Frog Technologies Corp. is upgrading the
  AATe for usability and other enhancements.
• Release 1.0 will be released early January 2003.
• Excel will still be the backend.
• Front end will be simple, intuitive, and
  EXTREMELY easy to use.
• Files will be able to be shared among users.
• Software size will come down to a couple of megs
  or less in a single package vs. 15 megs today in
  different Excel workbooks and files.

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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis Vision Spaceport

• Vision Spaceport was created under a Joint
  Sponsored Research Agreement combining government
  and industry investment dollars.
• Boeing
• CCT Corp.
• Lockheed-Martin
• NASA KSC
• More detail is required about 150 input
  variables, ground and flight systems design and
  operations decisions.
• Separate briefing available.

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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis Design Environments ModelCenter AATe
and Vision Spaceport

• AATe is wrapped and awaiting integration into the
  NASA Advanced Engineering Environment (AEE)
  supporting the Space Launch Initiative
• Total ModelCenter AATe automation (no user in the
  loop) is in work, evolving.
• Plan is to integrate into AEE before end of year
  and any SLI requirements milestones.
• 3rd Stage evolution TBD to address scale and
  other issues for CTV type vehicles.
• Vision Spaceport wrap is in work.
• Will be complete near years end.
• Promote integration of multiple tools in a
  comparative capability into AEE.

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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis Design Environments ModelCenter AATe
and Vision Spaceport

• ModelCenter adds capabilities such as automated
  parametric and sensitivity analysis and DOE.
  Takes only minutes to graph.
• Example using a Bimese TSTO Stage 1

Effect on TAT of PLOV ONLY
96 days as is (0.998 or worse)
72 days if taken to six 9s
Effect on Ops Variable Cost per flight of
sub-systems integration ONLY
34M as is
43M if worse, more Shuttle like
27M minimum
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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis Design Environments AFRL and Adaptive
Modeling Language (AML/Technosoft)

• KSC will explore the integration and/or addition
  and development of an operations analysis
  capability into the Air Force Research Lab (AFRL)
  design environment for RLVs.
• RLV foreseen as a viable competitor to non-CONUS
  based bombers, if a design is derived around an
  extreme ops focus.
• Work not yet begun modest AFRL funds provided.
  Many preliminary planning discussions and roles
  defined or being defined.

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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis GEM-FLO
http//science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/Tools1.
htm

• GEM-FLO is a Generic Simulation Environment for
  Modeling Future Launch Vehicles Operations.
• Productivity Apex Inc.
• Dynacs
• NASA
• Inputs are principally times and resources.
• Separate briefing available.
• Highlights and provides insight into the
  interaction of discrete events and the effects of
  variability and randomness.

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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis GEM-FLO

• Tools users may combine the insights and
  strengths of multiple tools to create synergy and
  new insight.
• AATe and GEM-FLO in a sample, generic SLI
  analysis.

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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis Research Capabilities in Development

• Space transportation ops analysis and
  understanding is in 1st generation of
  capabilities.
• Not a mature science.
• The need for exploring new and innovative
  techniques and analysis approaches, and for
  developing new tools, is continuous.

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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis Simulation Tools Dynacs Productivity
Apex Inc. GEM-FLO

• GEM-FLO capabilities will be applied in coming
  year within SLI by the KSC Systems Engineering
  Office.
• Separate briefing available.

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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis Simulation Toolkits - TEAMS (Glenn
Rhodeside) (SBIR ph.1)

• TEAMS will create a simulation (1) environment,
  (2) approach and (3) distributed capability for
  running simulation tools.
• Traditionally, simulation is stalled by being
  about software that requires experts to
  continuously modify and run, in order to get
  obscure answers, and which is not readily used by
  other than the original developer local to the
  use.
• This proposal addresses all these barriers to
  making sophisticated simulation something really
  used in the day to day work of analyzing and
  making decisions.
• Phase 1 complete.
• Phase 2 leading to a useful product is pending
  SBIR FY03 selection decision.

For more information contact Glenn Rhodeside,
NASA KSC at 321-867-7910 or glenn.rhodeside-1_at_ksc.
nasa.gov
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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis Activity Based Costing by University of
Texas, El Paso and CCT Corp, (STTR ph.1)

• A Phase 1 STTR, University (Dr. Torres) and
  Private Company (CCT, Fl) co-research-effort.
• Preliminary work promises to lend insight into at
  least the Shuttle TPS sub-system and some
  application to future RLV TPS design choices.
• The TPS pathfinder is being used to explore the
  feasibility of abc (Activity Based Costing)
  estimation to space transportation ops across all
  sub-systems.
• In work - Phase 1 due to conclude at end of
  fiscal year.
• Phase 2 will be pending selection of STTRs in FY
  03.

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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis Higher Fidelity Operations Turnaround
Time Estimation Capability (OPSTAT)

• In procurement / award loop.
• Ops needs to generate the value of turnaround
  time for conceptual space transportation systems
  based on design and operations factors
  influencing this variable so that earliest
  possible insight exists to feed into any
  investment process or decision making.

(We can afford to err on costsbut if we err on
turnaround time, we wont even be near the side
of the barn on total systems costs and operation
for any desired flight rate per year)
The vision
The reality
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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis Knowledge Capture and Reasoning
Discovery Machines Corp. TMK Methods (Jessica
Mock) (SBIR ph.1)
www.discoverymachine.com

• The task, method, knowledge TMK approach uses a
  diagrammatic approach to both problem formulation
  AND to problem resolution. While some programs
  assist in diagramming relationships, and while
  some capabilities in broad use (like Excel)
  assist problem resolution (calculating, modeling,
  iterating, etc) there are NO real capabilities
  that join diagrammatic formulation to resolution
  seamlessly.
• Simulations begin to address this but the TMK
  method is broader in that it establishes room for
  all types of calculations, not just simulation.
• A very low TRL product, but the engine is
  functional! True research leading to new
  commercial products.
• Phase 1 complete.
• Phase 2 leading to a useful product is pending
  SBIR FY03 selection decision.

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Space Transportation Operations Research and
Analysis Summary

• Space transportation ops analysis that is
  meaningful at the earliest stages of design,
  technology and investment decision making is a
  maturing science.
• To the degree ops analysis is useful in possibly
  altering future outcomes (cost, turnaround time,
  overall affordability) it is more difficult.
• To the degree ops analysis becomes more readily
  feasible, as detail emerges, the answers become
  more a consequence of earlier decisions that can
  not be un-done, not information useful to
  significantly alter that outcome.

Pre-Phase A Advanced Studies
Phase B Definition
Phase A Preliminary Analysis
Phase D Development
Phase C Design
Phase E Operations
Requirements Understanding/Filtering
Architectures Selection/Analysis Execution
Concept Collaboration, Assessment and Feedback to
Design
Process/Product Assessment and Refinement
Virtual Prototyping
Detailed, Focused Development
Operations
60-90 of life cycle cost locked in (but not
necessarily known!)
Breadth
Concept Z
Concept Y
Depth
Concept X
Year 1 We need to reduce the power level on the
engine to increase reusability, reduce layers or
infrastructure across that program element, and
to reduce its cost and turn time
dramaticallyWhile we are at it, lets have only 4
engines, not 6The TPS will be the new hard
stuff...
Year 10 If we provide improved access to the
engine maybe we can cut a shift off the operation
in that bayCan we un-employ two technicians if
we use the new web based work control?...Should
we invent a laser to scan the TPS and save 20 hrs
a month?