Generic Space Ground System WBS

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Generic Space Ground System WBS Cost Drivers

• Project Proposal Presentation
• OR 680

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The Project Team

• Team members
• Ron Bryan ( Team Lead )
• Jim Anthony, Rich Johnson, Kelvin Kercado, Ken
  McKenzie, Sean Stapleton
• Faulty advisor
• Dr. Loerch gt OR consultation
• Dr. Brouse gt SE consultation
• External Sponsor Tim Anderson (The Aerospace
  Corporation)
• Project type SE

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What is a Ground Station?
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The Problem 1

• Ground system cost estimation is a poorly
  understood field.
• Different customers acquire different ground
  system elements and capabilities
• Cost estimates usually developed on ad hoc basis
• Special purpose WBS
• Special purpose, analogy-based cost methods built
  on the fly
• Specialized models exist, but none are adequate
  to estimate an entire ground system
• No two ground stations are exactly alike
• No known modern comprehensive ground system cost
  model

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The Problem 2

• An Unprecedented
• Amount of money will be spent on ground systems
  in next ten years
• Need for ground system cost estimates exists
• However each customer is interested in different
  ground elements and capabilities
• Current models do not meet todays requirements
• Need a high quality cost estimation model

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Statement of Work

• Develop a WBS for a generic space ground station
• WBS consists of costable building blocks
• Leaf elements must be mutually exclusive
• Identify candidate primary cost drivers for the
  leaf elements of the WBS
• Verify and show that the final generic WBS can be
  applied to foreseeable specific ground stations
  (or major subsystems) of varied composition and
  capability
• Propose cost modeling methods / techniques that
  can be used to build a ground station cost model
  using this WBS

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Scope

• Assume government Space Ground Stations
• Military, Intelligence and Civilian
• WBS and cost drivers for design through
  operations.
• Exclude Government Program/Contracting Office
  costs
• Final product is not a cost model
• But will recommend Cost Modeling techniques

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Sample Existing WBS

• But
• No Cost Drivers!
• Unknown Flexibility
• Customer Dissatisfaction

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Cost Driver Constraints

• Final cost model will be used for budgeting and
  should cost studies.
• What is knowable 10 years in advance?
• E.g. What will we know about software?
• SLOC?
• Median Programmer Income?
• What types of functions will it perform?
• What data will it operate on?

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Sample Cost Elements

• MIL-HDBK-881A, 30 July 2005 states the following
  items are Common Elements that comprise the
  costs associated with each WBS line

• System Test and Evaluation
• Peculiar Support Equipment
• Common Support Equipment
• Operational and Site Activation
• Initial Spares and Repair Parts

• Integration, Assembly, Test, and Checkout
• Systems Engineering
• Program Management
• Training
• Data
• Industrial Facilities

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Technical Approach 1

• Plan project schedule and deliverables
• Confirm understanding of SOW and deliverables
  content
• Prepare and deliver draft proposal for client
  sign-off
• Deliver final project proposal

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Technical Approach 2

• Build knowledge and gather data
• Literature review
• Identify fundamental requirements
• Identify studies that address costs and staffing
  requirements
• Site visits
• Interview ground system program managers
• Observe fundamental ground system functions and
  representative hardware, software, manpower and
  overhead needs

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Technical Approach 3

• Analyze existing Cost Element Structures
• Army, NASA, NRO
• Determine key discriminators through engineering
  estimates and experience
• Additional input provided by SMEs and vendors
• Integrate WBS and cost information

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Technical Approach 4

• Apply the Spiral Development Model
• Prepare a preliminary WBS
• Iterate on client/mentor feedback to draft
• Iterate on client/mentor feedback to final
  deliverable
• Develop an appropriate cost estimating
  methodology recommendations

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Preliminary Project Schedule 1
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Preliminary Project Schedule 2
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Projected Project Risks

• VV scope is unbounded
• Any Foreseeable is not achievable
• We will select 5 sample configurations
• Access to domain knowledge/SMEs
• Can impact quality of information
• We must work to develop independent expertise and
  sources of information

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Why a 5 Project-Specific Bonus?

• The Aerospace Corporation hires many GMU SEOR
  Grads, and funds its employees to go through the
  SEOR MS programs.
• A good project outcome
• Increased industry reputation for GMU SEOR
• More SEOR students
• More department funding!!
• Susan Jones is on the SEOR Advisory Board

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Questions

• Questions?
• Thoughts?
• Suggestions?

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Ground Station Cost ModelingProject Presentation

• Backup
• Slides

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The Aerospace Corporation POCs
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References

• Wertz, J.R., and Larson, W.J., Space Mission
  Analysis and Design, 3rd Edition, Space
  Technology Library, Microcosm Press and Kluwer
  Academic Publishers, 1999.
• Turner, S., Bujewski, T., Bush, J. and G. Knebel,
  Automation in Satellite Ground Systems, GSAW,
  Manhattan Beach, CA, 2005.
• Rich, M., Lazar, S., Betser, J., Space
  acquisition strategy - just how important is the
  ground segment?, GSAW, Manhattan Beach, CA,
  2003.
• Simmons, C. B. (1998). Evaluation criteria for
  satellite ground systems, GSAW, El Segundo, CA,
  1998.

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Cost Estimating Techniques

• Top-Down Estimating (Analogy)
• Low to medium fidelity
• Can be conducted early in the development phase
• Estimate fidelity increases with smaller levels
  of generalization
• Parametric Estimating
• Medium to High fidelity
• Leverages wide base of industry data
• Parametric tools allow sensitivity analysis for
  identification of cost drivers and affordability
  activities
• Estimates are sensitive to tool calibration
• Bottom-Up Estimating (Grass Roots)
• Very high fidelity
• Estimate is based on existing vendor quotes,
  bills of materials, actual expenditures

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Identification of Cost Drivers

• Method 1 Sensitivity Analysis (Parametric Tool)
• Determine key attributes that impact cost through
  manual parameter manipulation
• Compare sensitivity of all parameters of cost
  contributors
• Method 2 Engineering Estimation
• Determine key discriminators through engineering
  estimates and experience
• Input provided by SMEs and vendors
• Method 3 Conduct Market Research
• Examine previously fielded systems and FOIA
  contracts
• Determine cost contributors from actual
  expenditures
• Determine cost drivers through research and SMEs