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Sebastopol Economic Summit: Opportunities and Challenges

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Director, Center for Regional Economic Analysis. Sonoma State ... Sustainable changes are the fruition of a collective vision. Government, business and labor. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Sebastopol Economic Summit: Opportunities and Challenges


1
Sebastopol Economic SummitOpportunities and
Challenges
  • Robert Eyler, Ph.D.
  • Chair, Department of Economics
  • Director, Center for Regional Economic Analysis
  • Sonoma State University
  • www.sonoma.edu/org/crea/sebasecon1.ppt

2
Introduction
  • Sebastopol faces many challenges and
    opportunities
  • West County hub?
  • What does Sebastopol want to be?
  • Ultimately, Sebastopol challenged by what it
    cannot be.
  • Some visions will drive people away, as well as
    businesses.
  • Macro Trends may affect decisions, need to
    monitor.
  • International, national important.
  • State and Local more important for Sebastopol.

3
Interdependency
  • Sebastopol cannot forget connections
  • Role in Sonoma County economy dependent on other
    towns and cities.
  • HWY 12 connection key for incoming businesses.
  • Business attraction does not happen in a vacuum.
  • Other towns watching, positioning constantly.
  • Pursuit of tax revenue and indirect income gains.
  • What does Sebastopol offer that other towns do
    not, and what could it offer?

4
Macro Trends
  • US Economy Growth, 3 GDP, Pers Income 0.2.
  • Global threats not going away.
  • Election leaves an economic dead zone in its
    wake.
  • Economy in slow recovery, no defined direction.
  • State economy Unemployment up in trend slightly,
    Consumer Spending rising (10 growth in CA)
  • Budget solved? If not, issues to come.
  • State government a large employer.
  • More cuts likely to come before new taxes.
  • Key is keeping and attracting industries in CA.

5
Macro Trends (cont.)
  • Interest Rates
  • Will they continue to rise or fall Mortgage
    Rates?
  • Stock market, real estate reacting slowly in
    trend.
  • FED with two rate hikes in 2004, likely to do one
    more.
  • Gas Prices dont worry about day to day.
  • Major problem is long-term threat to cost
    stability.
  • As costs rise, unemployment will also, businesses
    fail.
  • Business decisions are made with strategic focus,
    constrained by macroeconomic situation.

6
Competition
  • Is Sebastopol primed for new businesses?
  • If so, what businesses?
  • Where will customers come from?
  • Is Sebastopol a tourist, retail stop?
  • Where will businesses go?
  • Where will workers live?
  • Must think like the targeted business.
  • Understand its economic situation and decision
    making.

7
Strengths
  • Sebastopol has strengths that must be exploited
  • Quaint downtown on the way to river area and
    coast.
  • Wide breadth of retail options, few chains.
  • Close to city without being in city.
  • Areas available for development that enhance
    community (sustainability a focal point locally).
  • Sebastopol must be a place where business can
    thrive, but not harm community.

8
Weaknesses
  • Access limited for large-scale businesses.
  • Resident retail dollars exported.
  • Importing dollars leads to growth.
  • Traffic shifts from inflows to outflows.
  • Real estate prices high.
  • This is a problem everywhere in Sonoma County.
  • How will workers afford to live there?
  • Size constraints only certain businesses will
    come.
  • Reduces number and types of businesses to attract.

9
Opportunities
  • Need to identify and build a town plan that
    provides options.
  • Must lose any myopia, need to be flexible and
    allow changes.
  • Changes can come in a sustainable, sound way.
  • Plan to be County lead in sustainable business
    expansion and attraction.
  • Housing solutions a huge opportunity in a small
    community.
  • Key Must define what is sustainable specific
    to Sebastopol.

10
Threats
  • Sebastopol not alone.
  • Windsor, Healdsburg, Cotati, Sonoma, SR.
  • Need to identify biggest threats, and monitor
    continuously to consistently react.
  • Community itself may not have consensus.
  • Business expansion and attraction turned off by
    political infighting, bureaucracy.
  • You may think it is worth the fight, until your
    jobs gone.

11
Conclusions
  • Sebastopol needs to react to regional changes and
    local demand.
  • Sustainable changes are the fruition of a
    collective vision.
  • Government, business and labor.
  • Must also be part of a general plan that allows
    for contingencies and new ideas on growth.
  • Available space attracts certain businesses?
  • Affordable housing remains an large issue.

12
Conclusions
  • Act individually, but think about community
    economics.
  • How will local businesses survive?
  • Will Wal-Mart, Home Depot, et al. be seen as too
    strong, regardless of location?
  • Can there be better integration of vision?
  • Need to sell Sebastopols strengths and think
    about unique characteristics.
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