Predicting Success: A Statistical Analysis of

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Predicting Success A Statistical Analysis of
Dredged Material Habitat Creation
David Alberts, CC 03 Advisor Stephanie Pfirman,
LDEO Mentors Andrew Gelman, Statistics
Upmanu Lall, Environmental Engineering
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One of more than 400 created habitat islands off
the Atlantic Coast along the Inter-coastal
Waterway (USACE)
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What I Will Say

• Original Intentions
• Pitfalls
• Reorganization
• Thesis Revision
• Data Collection
• Results
• Interpretation and Analysis

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Original Intentions

• Original Thesis A small number of factors can be
  used to predict the level of success that an
  environmental intervention program will achieve
  in being funded and implemented.
• Original Data Collection Aspirations

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Pitfalls

• No one would give up the unfunded proposals
• Statistical Significance ( of projects required)
• Intangibles (lurking variables)

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Reorganization

• New Focus Project Planning vs. Implementation
• Identification of three critical variables in
  determining success
• Interview Surveys

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The Three Critical Independent Variables Between
Project Planning and Project Success

• Multidisciplinary Planning Committee
• Pre-Implementation Assessment / Control Test /
  Monitoring of Site
• Clarity of Goals and Objectives

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My Hypothesis Multidisciplinary, well-researched
and educated planning are key factors in bridging
the gap between project proposal and project
success
Bodkin Island Plan, MD (EPA)
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Example of the Data Set First 10 Projects -
Whats Missing?
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of Long Term Success Cases
(Grouped by Success Coefficient)
of Short Term Success Cases
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STATISTICS ARE FUNDAMENTAL!!!!!
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Correlation and Determination
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(No Transcript)
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Long-Term)
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m)
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What I Have Said

• Background
• Re-evaluation of the Thesis
• Data Collection
• Success in determining success in determining
  success in determining . . . .
• . . . . Basically . . . . .

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I AM A GENIUS!!!
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Aransas National Wildlife Refuge, TX (USACE)
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Warm Springs, CA (USACE)
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Gaillard Island Confined Disposal Facility, AL
(USACE)
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Miller Sands Island, OR (USACE)