Business cycle facts:

1
Business cycle facts An Overview for the 8th
Federal Reserve District
SuZanne Troske Zat Chintaradeja Joe Haslag
2
I. Conditions in Missouri
3
Unemployment Rate 1991-August 2004
Source U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
4
Employment Growth in Non-Agricultural Sector
Source U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
5
Employment Growth in Goods-Producing Sector
Source U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
6
Missouris Employment in Goods-Producing Sector
by Industry
Source U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
7
Employment Growth inService-Providing Sector
Source U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
8
Missouris Employment inService-Providing Sector
by Industry
Source U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
9
Personal Income Growth(constant )
Source U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis and U.S. Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
10
Per Capita Income in US and Missouri
Source U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis and U.S. Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
11
Growth of Per Capita Personal Income
Source U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis and U.S. Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
12
Growth in Missouri GSP
Source MO Department of Economic Development
13
Inflation U.S. and LocalBase Period
1982-1984100
Source U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
14
Missouri Tax Revenue Collections
Source Missouri Department of Revenue
15
Growth in General Fund, Sales Tax and Income Tax
Revenue
Source Missouri Department of Revenue
16
Summary of Conditions of Missouri

• Service-Providing sector is leading rebound in
  employment growth
• Income measures growing faster
• Inflation remains moderate in major metro areas
• States fiscal picture looking brighter

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II. Business Cycle Facts
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Business Cycle Volatility
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Contemporaneous Correlation
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Range of Correlation Coefficients
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A review

• Some variation in volatility across district
  states
• Almost all district states are highly correlated
  with U.S. business cycle
• More variation in leading relationship than
  lagging relationship

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Summary

• Missouri economy is improving
• Led by service-providing industries, employment
  and income are growing faster
• Within 8th district, cyclical volatility varies
  quite significantly.
• 8th district states generally in-step with U.S.
  business cycles