Southern Area Fire Risk Assessment

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Southern Area Fire Risk Assessment

• Spring 2008

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Introduction

• Team Members
• Clint Cross, U S Forest Service
• Jon Wallace, U S Fish Wildlife Service

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Objectives

• To provide an assessment of the expected fire
  situation in the Southern Area through the end of
  November that can be used to
• Assist state and federal wildfire agencies in
  preparing for the fall fire season
• Assist state and federal wildfire agencies with
  severity requests for emergency fire funding
• Inform the National MAC group of the Southern
  fire potential Inform FEMA of the Southern fire
  potential in order to assist in obtaining
  financial assistance
• Inform FEMA of the potential impact on ESF4 or
  state resources availability to response to all
  hazard incidents

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Background
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Fire Risk Analysis

• Weather
• Fuels Fire Behavior
• Fire Occurrence
• Summary Recommendations

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Weakening of the High Pressure
30 Day Normal Precip as of 1/30/08
90 Day Normal Precip as of 1/30/08

• Expect short term impact
• Will not end drought

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8 14 day Weather Forecast
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90 day forecast
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Drought Outlook
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Fuels Fire Behavior

• Used regional Predictive Service Areas to
  identify areas of concern
• Analyzed ERCs, 1000 hr fuel moisture, KBDI, and
  RH
• PSA map by Percentiles

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ERC Map October 14
ERC Map November 29
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ERC Map January 1, 08
ERC February 11
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Summary

• It will take an increase in precipitation over a
  long time period to erase fuel and soil moisture
  deficits
• Following short duration precipitation events the
  potential to return to a period of high fire
  danger resulting in more Initial Attack and
  larger fires could occur fairly quickly (within 5
  days).
• Areas which received significant rainfall in the
  last 7 days could be back in fire business if
  follow up moisture is not received.
• Rain fall patterns are not expected to change.
• Due to the short and long term drought, any
  change to drier weather could cause an abrupt
  change to high to extreme fire potential.
• Weather patterns will likely flucuate more than
  normal this Spring. Fire managers will need the
  ability to adapt quickly to changing conditions.

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Fall/Winter Fire Season Scenarios
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Recommendations

• As fire activity increases and regional
  preparedness level reaches PL3 the Decision
  Support Team should be reactivated at the
  Southern Area Coordination Center to provide Fire
  Behavior, Fire Danger, and technical support to
  incidents and to fire managers to assist in
  making the decisions in what could be an active
  fall fire season. Recommend starting with short
  team that can be expanded as fire occurrence
  increases.
• Supplement local and state initial attack
  resources earlier than normal.
• Additional aviation assets will likely be needed.
  
• Up to date/real time fire reporting up to SACC
  has been an on going problem. State coordination
  centers should continue to improve this reporting
  procedure. This is crucial for acquiring and
  keeping national resources.
• Timely, accurate and useful information on
  current and forecasted fuel conditions should be
  improved. This can be accomplished by utilizing
  the Decision support team to augment the SACC
  predictive services unit.
• Fire managers must consider potential fire
  behavior which can be expected when fire danger
  indices exceed the 97th percentile. Tactics
  should be altered to provide for firefighter and
  public safety. Appropriate Management Response
  may be point protection rather than direct
  attack.