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Title: The Science of Climate Change A Bah' Perspective


1
The Science ofClimate Change A Bahá'í
Perspective
  • Arthur Lyon Dahl Ph.D.
  • International Environment Forum (IEF)?
  • http//www.bcca.org/ief
  • Bahá'í Conference on Social and Economic
    Development
  • Orlando, Florida, 20 December 2008

2
Why are we worried?
  • If climate change goes unchecked, its effects
    will be catastrophic on the level of nuclear
    war.
  • The security dimension will come increasingly to
    the forefront as countries begin to see falls in
    available resources and economic vitality,
    increased stress on their armed forces, greater
    instability in regions of strategic import,
    increases in ethnic rivalries, and a widening gap
    between rich and poor.
  • International Institute for Strategic Studies,
    Strategic Survey 2007 (September 2007)?

3
Greenhouse Effect
4
Carbon Dioxide, a Greenhouse Gas
  • We are interfering with the carbon cycle,
    releasing carbon from long-term storage by
    burning fossil fuels (oil, coal, natural gas) and
    adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere

5
Greenhouse gases and climate change
  • More heat in the atmosphere and oceans changes
    air and water circulation and climate
  • Local effects will be highly variable, and are
    not easily predictable
  • Various computer models are used to predict the
    effect of rising greenhouse gas levels on the
    climate
  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
    confirms a significant human climate impact

6
Past and Future CO2 Concentrations
7
Changes in greenhouse gas concentrationsCO2M
ethaneNitrous oxides
  • IPCC 2007

8
Carbon dioxide and temperature
9
We are all responsible for climate change
  • Everyone benefiting from the burning of fossil
    fuels is responsible
  • Everyone involved in land clearing or benefiting
    from land use changes is a contributor
  • How much we are responsible depends on our
    country of residence, lifestyle and consumption
    patterns, with the rich most responsible
  • The poor will be the greatest victims of climate
    change, while contributing the least to the
    problem
  • This is an ethical dilemma

10
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12
NationalCarbonDioxideEmissionsPer Capita
13
Country Shareof GlobalCO2 Emissions2004Highly
concentrated(UNDP HDR 2007-2008)?
14
Energy-related CO2 Emissions(UNDP HDR 2007-2008)?
15
Cumulative CO2 Emissionsby rich countries(UNDP
HDR 2007-2008)?
16
GHG Emissions by Sector(UNDP HDR 2007-2008)?
17
Climate Change will bestronger and sooner
  • Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel
    have accelerated since 2000
  • Rise in 1990s 0.7/yr 2.9 since 2000
  • Three causes growth in world economy, rise of
    coal use in China, weakening of natural carbon
    sinks (forests, seas, soils)?
  • Growth in atmospheric CO2 about 35 higher than
    expected a few years ago

18
TemperatureTrends
19
Temperature increase last 50 years
20
Climate Change Science
  • No science is perfect, and there are always
    different interpretations of the available data
  • Powerful interests have tried to discredit
    climate change science despite the overwhelming
    consensus of climate scientists on the human
    impact on global warming
  • The counter-arguments have been disproved one
    after the other
  • Even the latest IPCC report (2007) represents a
    very cautious compromise position reflecting what
    is certain, not probable

21
Signs of Climate Change
  • Many species are changing their latitudinal and
    altitudinal distributions in response to rising
    temperatures
  • Coral reefs have suffered bleaching and mortality
    from unusually high temperatures
  • The number of category 5 cyclones (hurricanes)
    has increased in all oceans over the last 30
    years
  • The last 12 years have seen 11 of the warmest
    years ever recorded

22
What the models sayIPCC 2007
23
Ocean thermohaline circulation
24
Polar areas are changing fastest
  • Half of the permafrost in the Arctic is expected
    to melt by 2050 and 90 before 2100, releasing
    methane
  • 14 of the permanent ice in the Arctic Ocean
    melted in 2005 23 more in 2007(worst melting
    ever) almost as much in 2008 opening the
    North-West Passage permanent ice in the Arctic
    Ocean may be gone by 2015-30
  • Greenland glaciers have doubled their rate of
    flow in the last few years, raising sea level 0.6
    mm per year
  • Similar melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet
    could add another 4 mm per year

25
Did 'Abdu'l-Bahá know about global warming?
  • Should the fire of the love of God be kindled in
    Greenland, all of the ice of that country will be
    melted, and its cold weather become temperate...
  • 'Abdu'l-Bahá (1916), Tablets of the Divine Plan,
    5, p. 28
  • (He is also reported to have said that palm trees
    would grow in Chicago and Montreal.)?

26
ArcticTemperatureScenario2090
27
PredicteddecreaseinArcticOceanice cover
28
Arctic Ocean permanent ice cover
29
Glacier retreat - Argentina(BBC News)?
30
Retreat of the Rhone Glacier, Valais, Switzerland
(BBC News)?
31
ReductioninSnow2080-2100
32
There is little time left to act
  • Global temperatures have already risen 0.6C and
    will probably rise a further 3, or even up to
    4.5-5 by 2100
  • Ocean temperatures have risen at least 3 km deep
  • Glaciers and snow cover have decreased cold
    days, nights and frost have become rarer hot
    days, nights and heat-waves more frequent
  • Sea level rise has doubled in 150 years to 2
    mm/year, and recent polar melting may add another
    4 mm/year
  • Recent surge in CO2 levels from less uptake by
    plants
  • We may soon be approaching a tipping point where
    runaway climate change would be catastrophic

33
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34
Agricultural Productivity 2080
35
Predicted changes in precipitation
  • December-February
    June-August
  • Percent change 1900-1999 to 2000-2099
  • IPCC 2007

36
Biodiversity 2050
37
Biodiversity Impacts
38
ChangingBiomesinSouthAfrica
39
Coral reefs protect tropical coasts and provide
fishbut global warming could bleach and kill them
40
Climate change and coral reefs
41
Coral reefs will grow more slowly Carbon
dioxide makes the water more acid

42
Ocean Acidification to 2100
43
The most vulnerable areas risking catastrophic
collapse this century
  • Arctic Ocean and Greenland ice sheet
  • Amazon rain forest
  • Northern boreal forests
  • El Nino affecting weather in North America,
    South-East Asia and Africa (3C rise)?
  • Collapse of West African monsoon
  • Erratic Indian summer monsoon

44
Human Impacts of Climate Change
  • Increased damage from extreme weather events
    floods, droughts, cyclones
  • Less winter snowfall, melting glaciers, water
    shortages
  • Changing conditions for agriculture and forestry,
    shifting fish stocks, disease vectors
  • Sea level rise, flooding low-lying areas and
    islands
  • Millions of environmental refugees (500m-1b)?
  • High costs of mitigation and adaptation
  • Greatest impact on the poor

45
Spread of Malaria 2050
46
Food Insecurity
47
Sea Level Rise 1870-2006
48
Projected sea level rise to 2100(IPCC 2007)?
49
Effects of 1m Sea Level Rise
50
Rising sea levels will create millions of refugees
51
If you lived on a coral islandWhat would you do
if the sea level rose?
  • Carrie Bow Cay, Belize, Research Station of the
    Smithsonian Institution

52
Atoll Butaritari, Kiribati
53
Tuvalu is already being flooded (BBC News)?
54
Predicted Climate Refugees 2010(IAASTD 2008)?
55
Economic impact of natural disasters linked to
global warming
  • Record 112 billion in 1998
  • Unprecedented 204 billion in 2005, reflecting
    the high number of disasters affecting built-up
    areas

56
Effect on the economy
  • The Stern Report estimated the annual cost of
    uncontrolled climate change at more than 660
    billion (5 to 20 of global GDP, as compared to
    1 for control measures for greenhouse gases).
  • Climate change represents the greatest market
    failure in human history
  • IPCC 4 says stabilizing greenhouse gases by 2030
    will slow global growth 0.12/yr or 3 total
    global GDP

57
Global warming is driven by our addiction to
fossil fuels
  • Industrial economy depends on cheap energy, 80
    from fossil fuels
  • Transportation, communications, trade,
    agriculture, urbanization, consumer lifestyle all
    depend on abundant energy
  • Energy needs 50 by 2030, half in China and
    India coal 73 CO2 emissions 57 (2/3 from
    US, China, India, Russia)?
  • Adaptation will be expensive and the struggle for
    diminishing resources globally destabilizing

58
The double economic challenge
  • On current trends, ...humanity will need twice
    as much energy as it uses today within 35
    years.... Produce too little energy, say the
    economists, and there will be price hikes and a
    financial crash unlike any the world has ever
    known, with possible resource wars, depression
    and famine. Produce the wrong sort of energy, say
    the climate scientists, and we will have more
    droughts, floods, rising seas and worldwide
    economic disaster with runaway global warming.
  • John Vidal in The Guardian Weekly, 9-15 February
    2007, Energy supplement, p. 3

59
Present institutions have failed to address such
global challenges
  • No politician will sacrifice short-term economic
    welfare, even while agreeing that sustainability
    is essential in the long term
  • Deep social divisions within societies and
    between countries prevent united action in the
    common interest
  • Climate change is just one symptom of the
    fundamental imbalances in our world
  • Our present economic system is driving us in the
    wrong direction

60
The values underlying the economic system are
threatened fundamentally
  • - Economic thinking is challenged by the
    environmental crisis (including climate change)?
  • - The belief that there is no limit to nature's
    capacity to fulfil any demand made on it is false
  • - A culture which attaches absolute value to
    expansion, to acquisition, and to the
    satisfaction of people's wants must recognise
    that such goals are not, by themselves, realistic
    guides to policy
  • (based on The Prosperity of Humankind, Bahá'í
    International Community, 1995)

61
Climate change is driven by our consumer culture
  • - Materialism's gospel of human betterment
    produced today's consumer culture pursuing
    ephemeral goals
  • - For the small minority of people who can afford
    them, the benefits it offers are immediate, and
    the rationale unapologetic
  • - The breakdown of traditional morality has led
    to the triumph of animal impulse, as instinctive
    and blind as appetite
  • - Selfishness becomes a prized commercial
    resource falsehood reinvents itself as public
    information greed, lust, indolence, pride - even
    violence - acquire not merely broad acceptance
    but social and economic value
  • - Yet material comforts and acquisitions have
    been drained of meaning (based on Baha'i
    International Community, One Common Faith, 2005)?

62
Ways forward
  • Harness all available sources of energy on the
    surface of the planet (UN estimated investment
    required 20 trillion over 2 decades)?
  • Reduce environmental impact to sustainable limits
  • Accelerate the transition to reduce the shock
  • Create global governance mechanisms to manage
    this global challenge
  • Share the cost, effort and benefits globally with
    equity and justice

63
A Global Approachis Necessary
  • Climate change cannot be separated from the
    challenges of economic globalization, energy and
    resource depletion, poverty reduction, social
    imbalances and security
  • Each problem interacts with the others in complex
    ways
  • Partial solutions will not solve the problems
    that threaten future sustainability

64
Moral and ethical challenge
  • Mitigation of climate change... asks profound
    moral and ethical questions of our generation. In
    the face of clear evidence that inaction will
    hurt millions of people and consign them to lives
    of poverty and vulnerability, can we justify
    inaction? No civilized community adhering to even
    the most rudimentary ethical standards would
    answer that question in the affirmative,
    especially one that lacked neither the technology
    nor the financial resources to act decisively.
  • UNDP Human Development Report 2007/2008, p. 68

65
Sustainability an ethical conceptAs trustees
or stewards of the planet's resources and
biodiversity, we must- ensure sustainability
and equity of resource use into distant future-
consider the environmental consequences of
development activities- temper our actions with
moderation and humility- understand the natural
world and its role in humanity's collective
development both material and spiritual(based on
Bahá'í International Community, Valuing
Spirituality in Development. 1998)?
66
Sustainability is a fundamental
responsibilitySustainable environmental
management must come to be seen... as a
fundamental responsibility that must be
shouldered, a pre-requisite for spiritual
development as well as the individual's physical
survival.(based on Bahá'í International
Community, Valuing Spirituality in Development.
1998)?
67
Moderation in Material Civilization
  • The civilization, so often vaunted by the learned
    exponents of arts and sciences, will, if allowed
    to overleap the bounds of moderation, bring great
    evil upon men....
  • Bahá'u'lláh (1817-1892)

68
JUSTICE AND EQUITY
  • It is unjust to sacrifice the well-being of most
    people -- and even of the planet itself -- to the
    advantages which technological breakthroughs can
    make available to privileged minorities
  • (based on Baha'i International Community,
    Prosperity of Humankind)

69
An ethical approach will be essential to convince
all of us to act
  • Climate change may be the common threat that
    forces governments to work together in their
    collective interest
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