Title: The Science of Climate Change A Bah' Perspective
1The Science ofClimate Change A Bahá'í
Perspective
- Arthur Lyon Dahl Ph.D.
- International Environment Forum (IEF)?
- http//www.bcca.org/ief
- Bahá'í Conference on Social and Economic
Development - Orlando, Florida, 20 December 2008
2Why are we worried?
- If climate change goes unchecked, its effects
will be catastrophic on the level of nuclear
war. - The security dimension will come increasingly to
the forefront as countries begin to see falls in
available resources and economic vitality,
increased stress on their armed forces, greater
instability in regions of strategic import,
increases in ethnic rivalries, and a widening gap
between rich and poor. - International Institute for Strategic Studies,
Strategic Survey 2007 (September 2007)?
3Greenhouse Effect
4Carbon Dioxide, a Greenhouse Gas
- We are interfering with the carbon cycle,
releasing carbon from long-term storage by
burning fossil fuels (oil, coal, natural gas) and
adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere
5Greenhouse gases and climate change
- More heat in the atmosphere and oceans changes
air and water circulation and climate - Local effects will be highly variable, and are
not easily predictable - Various computer models are used to predict the
effect of rising greenhouse gas levels on the
climate - The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
confirms a significant human climate impact
6Past and Future CO2 Concentrations
7Changes in greenhouse gas concentrationsCO2M
ethaneNitrous oxides
8Carbon dioxide and temperature
9We are all responsible for climate change
- Everyone benefiting from the burning of fossil
fuels is responsible - Everyone involved in land clearing or benefiting
from land use changes is a contributor - How much we are responsible depends on our
country of residence, lifestyle and consumption
patterns, with the rich most responsible - The poor will be the greatest victims of climate
change, while contributing the least to the
problem - This is an ethical dilemma
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12NationalCarbonDioxideEmissionsPer Capita
13Country Shareof GlobalCO2 Emissions2004Highly
concentrated(UNDP HDR 2007-2008)?
14Energy-related CO2 Emissions(UNDP HDR 2007-2008)?
15Cumulative CO2 Emissionsby rich countries(UNDP
HDR 2007-2008)?
16GHG Emissions by Sector(UNDP HDR 2007-2008)?
17Climate Change will bestronger and sooner
- Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel
have accelerated since 2000 - Rise in 1990s 0.7/yr 2.9 since 2000
- Three causes growth in world economy, rise of
coal use in China, weakening of natural carbon
sinks (forests, seas, soils)? - Growth in atmospheric CO2 about 35 higher than
expected a few years ago
18TemperatureTrends
19Temperature increase last 50 years
20Climate Change Science
- No science is perfect, and there are always
different interpretations of the available data - Powerful interests have tried to discredit
climate change science despite the overwhelming
consensus of climate scientists on the human
impact on global warming - The counter-arguments have been disproved one
after the other - Even the latest IPCC report (2007) represents a
very cautious compromise position reflecting what
is certain, not probable
21Signs of Climate Change
- Many species are changing their latitudinal and
altitudinal distributions in response to rising
temperatures - Coral reefs have suffered bleaching and mortality
from unusually high temperatures - The number of category 5 cyclones (hurricanes)
has increased in all oceans over the last 30
years - The last 12 years have seen 11 of the warmest
years ever recorded
22What the models sayIPCC 2007
23Ocean thermohaline circulation
24Polar areas are changing fastest
- Half of the permafrost in the Arctic is expected
to melt by 2050 and 90 before 2100, releasing
methane - 14 of the permanent ice in the Arctic Ocean
melted in 2005 23 more in 2007(worst melting
ever) almost as much in 2008 opening the
North-West Passage permanent ice in the Arctic
Ocean may be gone by 2015-30 - Greenland glaciers have doubled their rate of
flow in the last few years, raising sea level 0.6
mm per year - Similar melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet
could add another 4 mm per year
25Did 'Abdu'l-Bahá know about global warming?
- Should the fire of the love of God be kindled in
Greenland, all of the ice of that country will be
melted, and its cold weather become temperate... - 'Abdu'l-Bahá (1916), Tablets of the Divine Plan,
5, p. 28 - (He is also reported to have said that palm trees
would grow in Chicago and Montreal.)?
26ArcticTemperatureScenario2090
27PredicteddecreaseinArcticOceanice cover
28Arctic Ocean permanent ice cover
29Glacier retreat - Argentina(BBC News)?
30Retreat of the Rhone Glacier, Valais, Switzerland
(BBC News)?
31ReductioninSnow2080-2100
32There is little time left to act
- Global temperatures have already risen 0.6C and
will probably rise a further 3, or even up to
4.5-5 by 2100 - Ocean temperatures have risen at least 3 km deep
- Glaciers and snow cover have decreased cold
days, nights and frost have become rarer hot
days, nights and heat-waves more frequent - Sea level rise has doubled in 150 years to 2
mm/year, and recent polar melting may add another
4 mm/year - Recent surge in CO2 levels from less uptake by
plants - We may soon be approaching a tipping point where
runaway climate change would be catastrophic
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34Agricultural Productivity 2080
35Predicted changes in precipitation
- December-February
June-August - Percent change 1900-1999 to 2000-2099
- IPCC 2007
36Biodiversity 2050
37Biodiversity Impacts
38ChangingBiomesinSouthAfrica
39Coral reefs protect tropical coasts and provide
fishbut global warming could bleach and kill them
40Climate change and coral reefs
41Coral reefs will grow more slowly Carbon
dioxide makes the water more acid
42Ocean Acidification to 2100
43The most vulnerable areas risking catastrophic
collapse this century
- Arctic Ocean and Greenland ice sheet
- Amazon rain forest
- Northern boreal forests
- El Nino affecting weather in North America,
South-East Asia and Africa (3C rise)? - Collapse of West African monsoon
- Erratic Indian summer monsoon
44Human Impacts of Climate Change
- Increased damage from extreme weather events
floods, droughts, cyclones - Less winter snowfall, melting glaciers, water
shortages - Changing conditions for agriculture and forestry,
shifting fish stocks, disease vectors - Sea level rise, flooding low-lying areas and
islands - Millions of environmental refugees (500m-1b)?
- High costs of mitigation and adaptation
- Greatest impact on the poor
45Spread of Malaria 2050
46Food Insecurity
47Sea Level Rise 1870-2006
48Projected sea level rise to 2100(IPCC 2007)?
49Effects of 1m Sea Level Rise
50Rising sea levels will create millions of refugees
51If you lived on a coral islandWhat would you do
if the sea level rose?
- Carrie Bow Cay, Belize, Research Station of the
Smithsonian Institution
52 Atoll Butaritari, Kiribati
53Tuvalu is already being flooded (BBC News)?
54Predicted Climate Refugees 2010(IAASTD 2008)?
55Economic impact of natural disasters linked to
global warming
- Record 112 billion in 1998
- Unprecedented 204 billion in 2005, reflecting
the high number of disasters affecting built-up
areas
56Effect on the economy
- The Stern Report estimated the annual cost of
uncontrolled climate change at more than 660
billion (5 to 20 of global GDP, as compared to
1 for control measures for greenhouse gases). - Climate change represents the greatest market
failure in human history - IPCC 4 says stabilizing greenhouse gases by 2030
will slow global growth 0.12/yr or 3 total
global GDP
57Global warming is driven by our addiction to
fossil fuels
- Industrial economy depends on cheap energy, 80
from fossil fuels - Transportation, communications, trade,
agriculture, urbanization, consumer lifestyle all
depend on abundant energy - Energy needs 50 by 2030, half in China and
India coal 73 CO2 emissions 57 (2/3 from
US, China, India, Russia)? - Adaptation will be expensive and the struggle for
diminishing resources globally destabilizing
58The double economic challenge
- On current trends, ...humanity will need twice
as much energy as it uses today within 35
years.... Produce too little energy, say the
economists, and there will be price hikes and a
financial crash unlike any the world has ever
known, with possible resource wars, depression
and famine. Produce the wrong sort of energy, say
the climate scientists, and we will have more
droughts, floods, rising seas and worldwide
economic disaster with runaway global warming. - John Vidal in The Guardian Weekly, 9-15 February
2007, Energy supplement, p. 3
59Present institutions have failed to address such
global challenges
- No politician will sacrifice short-term economic
welfare, even while agreeing that sustainability
is essential in the long term - Deep social divisions within societies and
between countries prevent united action in the
common interest - Climate change is just one symptom of the
fundamental imbalances in our world - Our present economic system is driving us in the
wrong direction
60The values underlying the economic system are
threatened fundamentally
- - Economic thinking is challenged by the
environmental crisis (including climate change)? - - The belief that there is no limit to nature's
capacity to fulfil any demand made on it is false - - A culture which attaches absolute value to
expansion, to acquisition, and to the
satisfaction of people's wants must recognise
that such goals are not, by themselves, realistic
guides to policy - (based on The Prosperity of Humankind, Bahá'í
International Community, 1995)
61Climate change is driven by our consumer culture
- - Materialism's gospel of human betterment
produced today's consumer culture pursuing
ephemeral goals - - For the small minority of people who can afford
them, the benefits it offers are immediate, and
the rationale unapologetic - - The breakdown of traditional morality has led
to the triumph of animal impulse, as instinctive
and blind as appetite - - Selfishness becomes a prized commercial
resource falsehood reinvents itself as public
information greed, lust, indolence, pride - even
violence - acquire not merely broad acceptance
but social and economic value - - Yet material comforts and acquisitions have
been drained of meaning (based on Baha'i
International Community, One Common Faith, 2005)?
62Ways forward
- Harness all available sources of energy on the
surface of the planet (UN estimated investment
required 20 trillion over 2 decades)? - Reduce environmental impact to sustainable limits
- Accelerate the transition to reduce the shock
- Create global governance mechanisms to manage
this global challenge - Share the cost, effort and benefits globally with
equity and justice
63A Global Approachis Necessary
- Climate change cannot be separated from the
challenges of economic globalization, energy and
resource depletion, poverty reduction, social
imbalances and security - Each problem interacts with the others in complex
ways - Partial solutions will not solve the problems
that threaten future sustainability
64Moral and ethical challenge
- Mitigation of climate change... asks profound
moral and ethical questions of our generation. In
the face of clear evidence that inaction will
hurt millions of people and consign them to lives
of poverty and vulnerability, can we justify
inaction? No civilized community adhering to even
the most rudimentary ethical standards would
answer that question in the affirmative,
especially one that lacked neither the technology
nor the financial resources to act decisively. - UNDP Human Development Report 2007/2008, p. 68
65Sustainability an ethical conceptAs trustees
or stewards of the planet's resources and
biodiversity, we must- ensure sustainability
and equity of resource use into distant future-
consider the environmental consequences of
development activities- temper our actions with
moderation and humility- understand the natural
world and its role in humanity's collective
development both material and spiritual(based on
Bahá'í International Community, Valuing
Spirituality in Development. 1998)?
66Sustainability is a fundamental
responsibilitySustainable environmental
management must come to be seen... as a
fundamental responsibility that must be
shouldered, a pre-requisite for spiritual
development as well as the individual's physical
survival.(based on Bahá'í International
Community, Valuing Spirituality in Development.
1998)?
67Moderation in Material Civilization
- The civilization, so often vaunted by the learned
exponents of arts and sciences, will, if allowed
to overleap the bounds of moderation, bring great
evil upon men.... - Bahá'u'lláh (1817-1892)
68JUSTICE AND EQUITY
- It is unjust to sacrifice the well-being of most
people -- and even of the planet itself -- to the
advantages which technological breakthroughs can
make available to privileged minorities - (based on Baha'i International Community,
Prosperity of Humankind)
69An ethical approach will be essential to convince
all of us to act
- Climate change may be the common threat that
forces governments to work together in their
collective interest