CBRFC Water Supply Training

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CBRFC Water Supply Training
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Goals

• Review methodologies and procedures
• Increase consistency between forecasters
• Improve understanding of basin hydrology

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Agenda
Oct 9 Verification / Climate Correlations
Nov 4 Procedures
Nov 5 Forecast Tools
Nov 12 Basin Project Reports
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Oct 9 Verification / Climate Correlations

• Overview and General Discussion
• Verification Kevin and Lisa (2 hours)
• New Capabilities
• Basin Assignment
• Climate Correlations Bill (1/2 hour)
• Climate Correlation demo Kevin and Drew (1/2
  hour)

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Nov 4 Procedures

• Water supply procedure list Brenda / Greg
• Basin documentation best practices and baseline
  template Greg
• Data gathering obtaining data, processing data,
  database, shef coding Brenda
• Coordination with NRCS and WFOs Brenda
• Product Dissemination ESGs, publications,
  western water, email Greg

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Nov 5 Forecast Tools

• SWS theory Kevin
• SWS practical Steve
• ESP and XEFS Kevin
• ESPADP Greg
• ESP and ESPADP batch - John

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Nov 12 Basin Project Reports

• Verification and climate assignment results
• Great Basin Brent
• Green Basin Bill
• Upper Colorado Brenda
• San Juan Gunnison Tracy
• Lower Colorado Greg
• Overall discussion How do we come up with our
  number?

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Format

• Formal talks
• Open discussion
• Homework assingment
• Interesting and fun

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(No Transcript)
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Opportunity 1 Important Forecast Program
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Opportunity 2 CBRFC Control

• Unlike many other most NWS programs, CBRFC has
  near total freedom over forecast procedures,
  services, etc
• 1940s CBRFC established for water supply
  forecasting
• 1990s SWS developed at CBRFC
• Major opportunity for prototyping concepts for
  other NWS programs

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Opportunity 3 ESP

• Many irrigation interests, reservoir operators,
  and other water management agencies now possess
  sufficient sophistication to demand and
  efficiently utilize water supply forecasts of a
  probabilistic nature for a variety of time
  periods.
• Twedt, et al, 1977
• ESP is a valuable tool when used as part of an
  operational decision support system for water
  management. The probabilistic information allows
  decision makers to incorporate risk into
  operational decisions.
• -WARFS Demonstration Report, 1994
• Now that Ive been using ESP to support
  decisions in my operations, I cannot imagine not
  using it
• paraphrasing a water manager in 2008

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Opportunity 4 Verification

• You guys keep telling me how you make your
  forecasts and how great they are, but youve
  never shown me anything that proves it.
• Anonymous customer, 2008
• New verification capabilities this year (THANKS
  LISA!) will allow the first ever objective and
  robust treatment of this question.

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More Opportunities

1. NIDIS
2. Interaction with research community

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New Paradigms?
SWS
ESP
NRCS
Forecaster
User
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New Paradigms?
ESP XEFS
NRCS VIPER
SWS
ESP
NRCS
Forecaster
Forecaster
User
User
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Discussion

• What areas of the forecast process would you like
  more explanation?
• Where do you see opportunities for improvement?
• Is there information or support that youre not
  getting that would help you?
• Is there too much information?