CONSERVATION GENETICS AND THE FUTURE OF LIFE

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CONSERVATION GENETICS AND THE FUTURE OF
LIFE David S. Woodruff, University of California
San Diego dwoodruf_at_ucsd.edu THE FUTURE DEPENDS
ON PROJECTIONS ABOUT HUMAN NUMBERS AND RESOURCE
USE AND CLIMATE CHANGE 100 YEAR PROJECTION
DAWN OF THE HOMOGECENE MANY SPECIES
EXTINCTIONS LOSS OF GENETIC VARIATION IN SMALL
FRAGMENTED POPULATIONS ASCENT OF THE WEEDS
GENERALISTS LOSS OF POLLINATORS AND
DISPERSERS INCREASED DISEASE PEST OUTBREAKS
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GLOBAL RATES OF HABITAT DESTRUCTION AGRICULTURE,
LOGGING, FUELWOOD, URBANIZATION CURRENTLY ABOUT
3040 HECTARES PER MINUTE HALF A FOOTBALL FIELD
PER SECOND
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S CA2 NO. OF SPECIES DOUBLES WITH 10X INCREASE
IN AREA
LOG SP. NO.
NOW
FUTURE
Log HABITAT AREA
A 10-FOLD DECREASE IN AREA CUTS THE SP. NO. IN
HALF. CURRENT GLOBAL RATE OF DESTRUCTION IS 2040
ha/minute.
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10 MILLION SPECIES OF WHICH 2/3 LIVE IN
TROPICS 40 OF TROPICAL FOREST DEGRADED BY
2020 SO gt700,000 SP. WILL GO EXTINCT IN TROPICAL
FORESTS AND gt1 MILLION SPECIES WORLDWIDE OVER 20
YEARS 15,000 SP./YEAR (GUESSTIMATE) CURRENT
MAMMALIAN RATE 1 EVERY 4 YEARS COMPARED TO K-T
(DINOSAURS) EXTINCTION RATE OF 1 EVERY 10,000
YEARS. OVERALL RATE NOW gt1,000X BACKGROUND
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FAUNAL COLLAPSE DUE TO AREA EFFECT
No. Sp.
TIME
IF 1.5 OF WORLD IS PARKS AND RESERVES THEN 10
OF BIOTA WILL SURVIVE IN YEAR 4000 50 OF HIGHER
VERTEBRATES WILL GO EXTINCT IN NEXT 500 2000
YEARS PREDICTION 510 LOSS BY 2020
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• CAUSES OF EXTINCTION/THREAT
• HABITAT LOSS ALTERATION
• OVER-EXPLOITATION
• SPECIES INTRODUCTIONS
• PREDATORS/PATHOGENS
• COMPETITORS
• SECONDARY EFFECTS
• COMMENSALS
• POLLINATORS/DISPERSERS
• PESTICIDES
• CATASTROPHES

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GENETIC VARIABILITY IS CORRELATED WITH FITNESS IN
SOME CASES

• DEVELOPMENTAL STABILITY
• GROWTH RATE SIZE
• METABOLIC EFFICIENCY
• FERTILITY
• SURVIVAL OF NEW DISEASES
• SURVIVAL IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT
• LACK OF GENETIC VARIATION IN A POPULATION MAY
  CONTRIBUTE TO REDUCED FITNESS AND EXTINCTION

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GENETIC PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
VARIABILITY CHEETAH, PERE DAVIDS DEER, ARABIAN
ORYX INBREEDING DEPRESSION MARTHAS VINYARD
HEATH HEN, KOALA REPRODUCTION DUSKY SEA-SIDE
SPARROW OUTBREEDING DEPRESSION AUSTRIAN IBEX,
SPIDER MONKEYS, SONORAN MINNOWS
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DEFINING EVOLUTIONARILY SIGNIFICANT UNITS
(ESUs) CHIMPANZEES AFRICAN ELEPHANTS SAN
CLEMENTE ISLAND LOGGERHEAD SHRIKE GENETIC
CENSUSING AFRICAN FOREST ELEPHANTS GENETIC
EROSION MONITORED in SMALL MAMMALS on FOREST
FRAGMENTS on ISLANDS in a NEW RESERVOIR in KHLONG
SAENG Wildlife Sanctuary, THAILAND.
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DECLINE OF BIOMES AND BIOTAS WHAT IS HAPPENING?
SPECIES LOSSES AT AN ALL TIME HIGH IN LAST 65M
YRS. AND INCREASING. MAYBE 30K/YR NOW. TAXONOMIC
CONSEQUENCES ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES WILL
ECOLOGICAL SERVICES FAIL? EVOLUTIONARY
CONSEQUENCES IS EVOLUTION OVER? GLOBAL
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES RAPID BUT lt THAT COPED
WITH IN LAST 2M YRS. IS IT UNPREDEDENTED? NO,
NOT YET A MASS EXTINCTION IS IT BAD? YES,
INEXCUSABLE TO LET IT BECOME A MEXTINCTION RECOMM
ENDATIONS ARM THE SCIENTISTS ALERT THE
PUBLIC DO ANYTHING TO BUT TIME
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CONSEQUENCES FOR ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONS THRESHOLDS
AND ALTERED STATES DISEASE AND PEST
ERUPTION CHANGES IN BIOGEOCHEMICAL
CYCLES KEYSTONE SPECIES FOOD WEBS SHORTENING OF
FOOD CHAINS ASCENT OF THE MICROBES INCREASE IN
NUTRIENT ENRICHED NICHES UNPREDICTABILITY
NON-LINEAR EFFECTS SURPRISES ANTARCTIC SURGE
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WHAT ARE WE DOING WRONG? HABITAT LOSS HABITAT
DEGRADATION HABITAT FRAGMENTATION HABITAT
SIMPLIFICATION PHYSICAL ECOLOGICAL HOMOGENIZATI
ON EXT OF ENDEMICS / ASCENT OF DOMESTICATED/
WEEDS AND GENERALISTS AND COMMENSALS ORGANISMS
OVER-EXPLOITATION GENETIC MODIFICATION
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THE FUTURE DEPENDS ON PROJECTIONS ABOUT HUMAN
NUMBERS AND RESOURCE USE 100 YEAR
PROJECTION SPECIES EXTINCTIONS LOSS OF VARIATION
IN SMALL FRAGMENTED POPULATIONS ASCENT OF THE
WEEDS GENERALISTS CONTINUED CLIMATIC
CHANGE DAWN OF THE HOMOGECENE 1000 YEAR
PROJECTION MORE EXTINCTIONS
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FUTURE EVOLUTION OF SPECIES LOSS OF GENETIC
VARIABILITY FRAGMENTATION OF GEOGRAPHIC
RANGES REDUCTION OF Ne ELIMINATION OF PREDATORS
AND COMPETITORS ELIMINATION OF POLLINATORS AND
DISPERSERS NEW DISHARMONIOUS COMMUNITIES
ASSEMBLAGES OF SPECIES ADAPTIVE RESPONSES TO
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES
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RECOMMENDATIONS REDUCE HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH
RESOURCE USE IMPROVE ECOLOGICAL EDUCATION PROMOTE
RESEARCH ON ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES SO AS TO
IMPROVE SPECIES LEVEL CONSERVATION ON RELN
BETWEEN GENETIC VARIATION POP.
VIABILITY DEVELOP GLOBAL SYSTEM TO FOSTER
PROTECTION OF FRESHWATER AND MARINE
ECOSYSTEMS PROMOTE THE RE-DESIGN OF PROTECTED
AREAS TO ACCOMMODATE PREDICTED CLIMATIC CHANGE
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GENERAL DILEMMAS TOO FEW PLANS FOR SPECIES OR
COMMUNITIES CHOOSING AND JUSTIFYING CHARISMA,
UTILITY, KEYSTONE.. SPECIES IN ISOLATION vs.
SPECIES IN HABITATS INSTITUTIONS AND CRISIS
MANAGEMENT PARKS AND RESERVES ZOOS, AQUARIA
BOTANICAL GARDENS EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMS OWNERSHIP
AND MANAGEMENT OF THE WILD
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• BIODIVERSITY CRISIS COULD NOT HAVE COME AT A
  WORSE TIME
• NOW CLEAR THAT
• TRADITIONAL NATIONALISM DOES NOT SERVE OUR
  INTERESTS.
• WHEN A LEAF FALLS IN BRAZIL IT DOES IMPACT US
  HERE.
• LIVING THE ECOLOGICAL LIE (GHOST ACERAGE) HAS A
  PRICE
• WE ARE LIVING HIGH, AS IF WE HAD 10 EARTHS
• SHOVELING COAL ON A RUNAWAY TRAIN ONLY MAKES
  THINGS WORSE
• YOU CANT EAT GNP AS TRADITIONALLY DEFINED
• ECONOMISTS AND ENGINEERS SHOULD HAVE TO STUDY
  ECOLOGY
• ATTITUDES TOWARDS WILDLIFE ARE DIVERSE AND OFTEN
  ILL- INFORMED, MANIPULATED, AND/OR IRRATIONAL

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SOLUTION OF THE BIODIVERSITY CRISIS CAN COME
ONLY WITH THE SOLUTION OF THE HUMAN PREDICAMENT
SUSTAINABILITY STEWARDSHIP BIONEERING THE
INTERVENTIVE GENETIC AND ECOLOGICAL MANAGEMENT OF
SPECIES, COMMUNITIES AND ECOSYSTEMS IN A
POST-NATURAL WORLD ANALYTIC DELIBERATION
SCIENCE-BASED PROCESS OF CONSENSUS BUILDING