Kirk Lesh UCSB Economic Forecast Project

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Kirk Lesh UCSB Economic Forecast Project
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Real Estate
3

• Residential
• Market

4
Paradigm Shift

• Growing Economy
• Available Credit
• Deteriorating Economy
• Lack of Credit

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Signs of Life ?
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(No Transcript)
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South Coast Home Sales
Y-O-Y Change
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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(No Transcript)
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South Coast Median Home Price
Y-O-Y Change
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
10
(No Transcript)
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South Coast Foreclosures
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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(No Transcript)
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South Coast New Housing Units
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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Signs of Life ?

• Rising Unemployment
• Weak Economy
• Tight Lending Standards
• Low Interest Rates

15
30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2007
2008
2009
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Recovery ?

• Rising Unemployment
• Weak Economy
• Tight Lending Standards
• Low Interest Rates
• Rebuilding
• Government Intervention
• Anemic Recovery

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Commercial Real Estate
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(No Transcript)
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Santa Barbara Retail Vacancy Rates

3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
20
Santa Barbara Retail Lease Rates
/sq. ft.
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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Retail Market

• Circuit City
• General Growth Partners
• Locally Owned
• Consumer Spending

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(No Transcript)
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South Coast Office Vacancy Rates

10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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South Coast Office Lease Rates
/sq. ft.
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
25
South Coast Industrial Vacancy Rates

6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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South Coast Industrial Lease Rates
/sq. ft.
1.35
1.30
1.25
1.20
1.15
1.10
1.05
1.00
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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Commercial Real Estate

• Pro-active Tenants
• Auto Dealerships
• Little Construction
• Lack of Capital

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Thank You

• Visit us at
• www.ucsb-efp.com