Gerrit-Jan Knaap

1
Land Market Monitoring Beyond Land Supply

• Gerrit-Jan Knaap
• Professor and Director
• National Center for
• Smart Growth Research and Education
• University of Maryland

2
Monitoring Infrastructure

• Points, lines, and polygons
• The concept of service capacity
• The concept of capacity consumption

3
MonitoringSchool Systems and Plans
Monitoring School Systems and Plans
Leal Elementary School
4
MonitoringPark Systems and Plans
Monitoring Park Systems and Plans
King (Neighborhood)Park
5
Monitoring Sewer Systems and Plans
6
MonitoringRoad Systems and Plans
Monitoring Road Systems and Plans

• Lincoln Avenue between
• Pennsylvania and Florida

7
Monitoring Residential Land Markets

• Population, Acres, Housing units,
• Annexations, building permits, zone changes
• Days of inventory

8
Residential Development, 1996 - 2000
9
Residential Vacant Tracts, 1996 - 2000
10
Residential Vacant Lots, 1996 - 2000
11
Housing Starts, Maryland Counties
Sources Census and National Association of
Homebuilders
12
Housing Starts, Regions
Sources Census and National Association of
Homebuilders
13
Monitoring Housing Prices
14
Existing Single Family Home Prices, Regions
Source National Association of Homebuilders
15
New Single Family Home Prices, Regions
Source Census New Residential Sales Index
16
House Price Index
Source Office of Federal Housing Enterprise
Oversight (OFHEO)
17
Existing Single Family Home Prices, Maryland
Counties
Sources Metropolitan Regional Information
Systems, Inc. and National Association of
Homebuilders
18
Monitoring Rents
19
Monitoring Affordability
20
Monitoring Housing Supply
21
Monitoring Housing Match
22
Measuring, Monitoring, and Evaluating Urban Form
23
(No Transcript)
24

• (1) Street Design and Circulation Systems
• Int_Connectivity ratio of the number of street
  intersections versus the sum of intersections and
  cul-de-sacs (Criterion, 1999)

25
(No Transcript)
26
Internal Connectivity


27

• (1) Street Design and Circulation Systems
  (Continued)
• Ext_Connectivity median distance between
  Ingress/Egress (access) points in feet
  (Criterion, 1999)

28
(No Transcript)
29
(No Transcript)
30
(No Transcript)
31

• (1) Street Design and Circulation Systems
  (Continued)
• Blocks_Peri median value of perimeter of the
  blocks in a neighborhood
• Blocks number of blocks divided by number of
  housing units

32
(No Transcript)
33

• (1) Street Design and Circulation Systems
  (Continued)
• Length_Cul-De-Sac_ St median value of length of
  cul-de-sac streets
• Rt_Cul-De-Sac_Units proportion of housing units
  that are located by the Cul-De-Sacs in a
  neighborhood

34
(No Transcript)
35

• (2) Pedestrian Walkability Characteristics
• Ped_Com percentage of SFR units within walkable
  distance of commercial uses
• Ped_Transit percentage of SFR units within
  walkable distance of transit stations

36
(No Transcript)
37
(No Transcript)
38

• (3) Land-use Characteristics
• Mix actual area of commercial, industrial and
  public land uses in the neighborhood divided by
  number of housing units in a neighborhood

39

• (3) Land-use Characteristics (Continued)
• Lot_size the median value of the area of lot
  size in square foot in a neighborhood
• Pop_Denisty the number of households divided by
  the area of the neighborhood
• SFRDU_Density SFR housing units divided by the
  area of the neighborhood

40

• (4) Accessibility Characteristics
• Comdis distance in feet to the nearest
  commercial use
• Busdis distance in feet to the nearest bus
  station
• Parkdis distance in feet to the nearest park

41
Urban Form Measurements (Unit of measurements) Forest Glen Orenco Station Trend of changes Price Premium of Orenco
(1) Street Design and Circulation Systems (1) Street Design and Circulation Systems (1) Street Design and Circulation Systems (1) Street Design and Circulation Systems (1) Street Design and Circulation Systems
Internal Connectivity_Beta 1.22 1.45 Decreased until 1990, then reversed
External Street Connectivity (feet between access points) 569 1016 Increased all the time
Length_Street (feet) 95 204 No change
Block Perimeter (feet) 3365 830 Increased until 1991, then reversed
Number of Blocks per Housing Unit 0.026 0.15 Decreased until 1992, then reversed
Median Length of Cul-De-Sacs (feet) 203 106 Decreased all the time
(2) Density (2) Density (2) Density (2) Density (2) Density
Lot Size (Square feet) 8675 3500 Decreased all the time -
Floor Space (Square feet) 1911 1648 Increased all the time -
Pop_Density (person/acre) 2.02 2.62 No change -
DU_Density (Units/acre) 5.14 11.93 Increased all the time, but expedited after 1990 -
42
Urban Form Measurements (Unit of measurements) Forest Glen Orenco Station Trend of changes Price Premium of Orenco
(3) Land Use Mix (3) Land Use Mix (3) Land Use Mix (3) Land Use Mix (3) Land Use Mix
Entropy Index Including SFR area (1 evenly distributed) 0.20 0.37 No change -
Entropy Index Excluding SFR area (1 evenly distributed) 0.20 0.30 No change
(4) Accessibility Characteristics (4) Accessibility Characteristics (4) Accessibility Characteristics (4) Accessibility Characteristics (4) Accessibility Characteristics
Median Linear Distance to Nearest Commercial Use (feet) 3184 834 Decreased until 1990, then reversed -
Median Distance to Nearest Park (feet) 1267 873 Decreased all the time
(5) Pedestrian Walkability (5) Pedestrian Walkability (5) Pedestrian Walkability (5) Pedestrian Walkability (5) Pedestrian Walkability
Percent of SFR Units within ¼-Mile Network Distance of Commercial Use 4 78 Decreased until 1990, then reversed
Percent of SFR Units within ¼-Mile Network Distance of Bus Stops 34 100 Decreased until 1993, then reversed -
43
Better Information leads to Better Land
Management Decisions

• Infrastructure Capacity
• Housing Market Indicators
• Prices, Starts, Vacancy
• Urban Form
• Connectivity, Land Use, Density, Accessibility
• Better Decisions leads to Better Urban
  Environments