Safety, Health, Economic Impacts R. E. Carbone

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Safety, Health, Economic ImpactsR. E. Carbone
Im a researcher - basic weather and climate
process studies. No training in safety, health or
economics. I have lead national and international
weather research programs dedicated to the
improved prediction of high impact
weather. Sydney 2000 reinforces my belief that
there is an underexploited opportunity. Do we
grasp the benefits that could arise from a
serious multi-sector engagement? For the sake of
focus, Ill restrict my comments to short range
weather prediction.
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Some Pet Peeves
Are we shackled by uniformity of service
policies? 2/3s of our population lives on 2
of the land We should define uniformity in a
way that benefits everyone. Are we shackled by
lack of clarity and coordination among
governmental and private sector relationships? I
think so.
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What Differentiates Urban Zones?
Sheer quantity of weather-sensitive activity Wide
range of sensitivities at any given time within a
forecast zone Fine scale of spatial and temporal
co-mingling of various sensitivities High public
interest in relatively small weather
changes Potential economic importance of
routinely disruptive weather Relatively high
density of weather, water and environmental
monitoring Proliferation of ad hoc nowcasting and
very short range dynamical forecasts. Omnipresent
heavy-hittersTransportation, Water, Emergency
Management, Air
Quality, Public Events, Recreation
And the Added Dimension of Homeland Security

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REAL
Scanning Raman-shifted Eye-safe Aerosol Lidar
(REAL) Pentagon, 7 May 2004
Urban aerosol mapping, locating aerosol sources,
monitoring dispersion of pollutants
Wavelength 1.5 microns High pulse energy Range
resolution 3 m Useful range 500 m to several
km Rapid scanning Complete eye-safety
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Information Needed
An urban environment observing system. Present
Environment (PE) gridded and depicted at urban
use scale (500m, 1 min) Nowcasts of PE (trends
and very short range forecasts) Dynamically-based
surface layer forecasts Short range
(dynamically-based) storm/environment forecasts.
Use-directed significant impact estimates and
forecasts Condition-keyed optimal pathways
products
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Value of Information
Baseline social scientist studies on current use
and value for targeted user groups Joint
user-provider projections of high-value products
and services Micro-economic model forecasts of
value Forecast Demonstration Projects designed
to provide products and services Social Scientist
observations of product and service usages,
decision impacts Detailed meteorological/environme
ntal verification Social Scientist interviews of
targeted-users to quantify usages, decision
impacts User-provider evaluation of incremental
value
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Education, Training, Outreach
Education, training and outreach can be dominant
factors.
A case in point Aviation wind shear accident
prevention circa 1985. Discovery and
understanding of microbursts was the key
factor Pilot training provided, based on visual
clues, general meteorological conditions. Acciden
t rate plummeted, well before deployment of
detection systems
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Actions Now
Develop a national consensus on uniformity of
service defined by categories of products and
services best matched to rural, ex-urban and
urban needs. Comparable mitigation of
principal impacts could be a guiding criterion.
Providers and users should jointly design Urban
Forecast Demonstration Projects in light of
baseline socio-economic studies of current use
and value. FDPs should be conducted in
representative urbanized areas jointly with
targeted user groups. The incremental use and
value, as measured by changes in decision-making,
tangible benefits and verifiable improvements in
weather information, should then be quantified by
social scientists and users alike. A who does
what issue arises among various branches and
levels of government and various private sector
interests. This issue should not impede the RD
necessary to define the elements of the
solution. It would be best to constructively
debate and test potential divisions of labor
before operational implementations are
understood.
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END