The Transition to Electric Bikes in China

1
The Transition to Electric Bikes in China
History and Key Factors for Rapid Growth

• BAQ 2006, Dec 14
• Jonathan Weinert, Inst. of Transp. Studies
  UC-Davis
• Ma Zedan, Tsinghua University
• Christopher Cherry, UC-Berkeley

2
Outline

• E-bike Background
• History
• Key Factors
• Technical
• Economic
• Political
• Other
• Conclusions

3
Motivation

• Successful FAST adoption of a new
  transportation technology due to air quality
  concerns
• 2. Apply lessons to
• Other technologies
• Other countries

4
Methodology

• Existing Literature
• Interviews
• 23 e-bike companies, 4 factory visits, 5 dealers,
  12 users, 1 govt rep.
• Surveys
• 1,000 e-bike users in Shanghai, Kunming, and
  Shijiazhuang (Weinert, Ma, Yang, Cherry 2006,
  Cherry and Cervero, 2006)

5
E Bike Background
Insert pix
6
E-bike Background

• Definition 2-wheeled vehicle (2WV) propelled by
  electricity and (sometimes) human power.

Bicycle-style Scooter Style
7
E-bike Growth in China

• Jamerson, F. and Benjamin, E., 2004 Electric
  Bicycle World Report, 7th Edition with 2005
  update, 2005

8
E-bike Pros and Cons
1. Cherry, Weinert, Ma (2006)
9
History

• Phase 1 (1980s)
• Technology sub-par
• Phase 2 (early 90s)
• Technology better, but not as good as incumbent
• Phase 3 (late 90s-present
• Technology competitive with incumbent
• Incumbent crippled by regulation (The Harding
  Effect)
• Other factors

10
E-bike Industry

• 1998 10 companies
• 2005 498 registered
• (1,000-5,000 unofficial)
• Why? mature, simple technology, weak IP
  enforcement
• Size 10- 200,000 bikes/year
• Profit margin 6

11
The Key Factors
12
Key Factor 1 Technology

• Batteries Type
• Valve-regulated lead-acid
• Replaced liquid electrolyte batteries
• Motor Type
• Brushless motors
• Longer life, lower maintenance, more power

13
How has e-bike technology improved?
Weinert, Ma, Cherry (2006)
14
Key Factor 2 Economics

• Economics

Compact car
15
Economic/Market Factors

• 2002-06 Gasoline prices rose by 45(Shanghai)

China National Statistics Report (2005)
16
Key Factor 3 Policy Factors

• Gasoline scooters bans
• 1994 Tianijn
• 1996 Shanghai
• 1998 Guangzhou, Shijiazhuang, Suzhou
• National E-bike standards (99)
• The pedal loophole create uniform specs for
  BSEB and SSEB
• Other loopholes (speed, weight, power)
• Natl Road Transportation Safety Law (04)
• Gave e-bikers right to use bike lane
• Gave e-bike industry more confidence

17
E-bikes a Tale of Two Cities

• Beijing
• 2002, issued e-bike ban effective 06
• 2006, amidst strong oppostion, reversed decisions
• Strictly enforces standards, SSEBs lt 5
• Shanghai
• Loosely enforced standards, SSEBs gt70
• Banned gasoline scooters 1998

18
E-bikes growth compared to other 2WVs (Shanghai)

• Kang, 2004

19
How have regional policy differences affected
e-bike sales?
20
4. Other Factors

• Liberalization of the housing market (started in
  mid-1990s)
• SARS early 2003
• Abnormally high summer heat wave (2003)
• Why did sales spike

21
Conclusions

• Technology
• Battery life, energy density, motor efficiency
• Macro-economics
• Incomes rose, share spent commuting rose
• Industry
• Low barriers to entry, more entrants, falling
  costs
• National and Local policies
• Product standards --gt loopholes (SSEB)
• Road space

22
So What Was It?

• The technology
• The market
• Or the policy
• Or the timely confluence of all three???

23
Acknowledgements

• Research Supported by
• ITS-Davis (Dr. Joan Ogden Dan Sperling)
• Hong Kong Fok Ying Tung (Huo Ying Dong) Education
  Foundation, Project No. 94027
• ITS-Berkeley Center for Future Urban Transport-A
  Volvo Center of Excellence
• Presentation available at www.jonathanweinert.com/
  presentations