Energy for development: some facts and figures

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Energy for development some facts and figures

• Wim Turkenburg
• Copernicus Institute Utrecht University
• w.c.turkenburg_at_chem.uu.nl
• Public Debate Access to Energy for the Poor
• Stichting Natuur en Milieu / NCDO / WISE /
  Milieudefensie / DGIS
• Ministry of Foreign Affairs The Hague - 13
  September 2006

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World primary energy consumption in 2001

• Fossil fuels 332 EJ (79.4)
• - oil 147 EJ
• - natural gas 91 EJ
• - coal 94 EJ
• _________________________________________________
  __________________________________________________
  _______
• Renewables 57 EJ (13.7)
• - large hydro 9 EJ
• - traditional biomass 39 EJ
• - new renewables 9 EJ
• _________________________________________________
  __________________________________________________
  _______
• Nuclear 29 EJ (6.9)
• _________________________________________________
  __________________________________________________
  _______
• Total 418 EJ (100)

Source World Energy Assessment, Overview, 2004
update
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Contribution new renewables

• 2001 share in world primary energy consumption
• __________________________________________
• - Modern biomass 6.0 EJ
• - Geothermal 2.1 EJ
• - Small hydro 0.36 EJ
• - Wind turbines 0.16 EJ
• - Low temp. solar energy 0.20 EJ
• - Solar Thermal Electricity 0.003
  EJ
• - Solar PV 0.004 EJ
• - Marine energy 0.002 EJ
• _______________________________________________
  __________________________________________________
  _____
• Total 8.9 EJ

WEA-update, 2004 (based on W.C. Turkenburg, 2003)
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(As shown in World Energy Assessment 2004 Update)
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Life expectancy, infant mortality, literacy, and
total fertility rate as function of commercial
energy consumption per capita
life expectancy
infant mortality
illiteracy
Source Energy as an Instrument of Socio-Economic
Development, UNDP, 1995
total fertility rate
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World CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion
Gigatonnes of CO2
Annex II North America
Economies In Transition

Annex II Europe


China
Annex II Pacific
Asia
Latin America
Africa
Other Non-Annex I
Middle East
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Emission growth top 10 countries
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Energy and Developmentkey challenges

• Access to modern energy services (clean cooking
  fuels, electricity)
• Environmentally sound supply of energy (indoor
  and outdoor pollution)
• Energy security (dependency on oil and fuel
  imports)

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Accessibility

• Without access to modern energy services,
  substantial social and economic development
  cannot occur.
• 2.4 billion people rely on wood, charcoal and
  dung
• 1.6 billion people do not have access to
  electricity
• Reality at the local level

Women and girls in rural areas often spend
between 2-4 hours collecting biomass fuel
1.6 million deaths per year due to indoor air
pollution
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The link between Poverty and Share of Traditional
Biomass in Residential Energy Consumption
IEA, 2002, World Energy Outlook, Chapter 13
Energy and Poverty
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High Demand forBiomass in Developing Countries
Energy Consumption per capita by fuel and
proportion of population in poverty
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Source World Energy Assessment 2004 Update
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Pollution from cooking stoves/fuels (measured
emissions to room air from flue-less stoves in
China)
PIC Products of Incomplete Combustion
Natural Gas ?
Town Gas ?
Kerosene ?
LPG ?
Source Zhang, Smith, et al., 2000
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Indoor Air Pollution vs Alternative
Environmental Risks (Worldwide in 2000)
Source WHO, World Health Report 2002 Reducing
Risks,Promoting Healthy Life
Thus, worldwide, indoor air pollution is second
largest environmental risk in causing premature
mortality!
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Global Warming Commitment of cooking
fuels/technologies due to GHG emissions
(estimates)
! ?
! ?
! ?
Source Bond, Venkataraman, and Masera, ESD, 2004
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GCCFI

• Pressing need for a Global Clean Cooking Fuel
  Initiative! Shift from solid to gaseous/liquid
  fuels (PM solar cooking).
• Clean cooking fuels are not yet a major political
  issue in the developing world.
• As our esteemed colleague professor Amulya Reddy
  (?2006) from India has said
• Clean cooking fuels must become a rallying
  point on the political agenda - like bijli
  (electricity), sadak (roads), and pani (water) in
  recent Indian elections.
• Clean cooking fuels are technically and
  environmentally feasibleand affordable.

See Special Issue on Clean Cooking, Energy for
Sustainable Development, Vol. 8, Nr. 3,
September 2004 (www.ieiglobal.org/esd.html)
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Brasil has shown Ethanol can compete with
gasoline
ethanol
gasoline
Source J. Goldemberg, et al., 2004
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Reality at the global level Electricity
Deprivation (millions)
Source IEA WEO (2004)
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South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
East Asia / China
IEA, 2002, World Energy Outlook, Chapter 13
Energy and Poverty.
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Future contribution renewables

• Potential contribution of renewables in second
  half of the 21th century
• 20 - 50 of total energy consumption

Source W.C. Turkenburg et.al., WEA, 2000
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Cost fossil fuel electricity with/without CO2
Capture and Storage (CCS) )

) Gas prices 2.8-4.4 US/GJ Coal prices
1-1.5 US/GJ
Source IPCC SR-CCS, 2005
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Outlook for More Efficient Use of Energy

• Cost effective over the next 20 years to reduce
  primary energy consumed per unit of energy
  services
• OECD Countries 25-35
• Developing Countries 30- gt45
• Economies in transition gt40
• Greater gains in efficiency feasible with
  advanced energy technologies that offer multiple
  benefits

Source World Energy Assessment, 2000
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Putting things in perspective

• Energy production investments per year
  (public/private) 290-430 billion
• Total foreign aid (ODA) worldwide in 2000 60
  billion all sources all sectors.
• Value of all subsidies to energy in South 50
  billion (in 1990).
• Investment in energy projected at 300-500
  billion per year for the next 20 years.
• Most will occur in developing countries.
• 5-10 enough to achieve complete access to
  modern energy for the poor