Scenario Development and RiskBased Decision Support

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Scenario Development and Risk-Based Decision
Support

• Moderator John Houghton (DOE)
• Overview Henry Jacoby (MIT)
• Rapporteurs
• Claudia Nierenberg (NOAA)
• Joel Scheraga (EPA)
• Panelists
• Eric Barron (Pennsylvania State University)
• Paul Craig (Sierra Club)
• Philip Mote (University of Washington)
• Bob Corell (Harvard, AMS)

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Why the Need for the CCRI
Climate Research
Policymakers Managers
Mitigation
USGCRPOther US Global
Adaptation
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Summary of CCRI Structure
Climate Research
Policymakers Managers
Scenario Developmt
Mitigation
USGCRPOther US Global
Impacts Analysis
Adaptation
Applied Climate Modeling
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Key Observations

• The voice of the science community is evident in
  the strategic plan
• The importance of connecting science to decision
  makers is prominent
• The CCSPO Strategic Plan sets the stage for a new
  approach integrating Research, Observations,
  Assessment and Decision Support (The ROADS
  Strategy)
• Moving from a problem identification strategy to
  a more solutions-oriented strategy

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Observations

• Research
• How to elicit opinions
• Tool development
• Not all is research
• institution-building
• new apparatus
• not policy analysis
• Move to strategic plan from visions

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Challenges in Providing Decision Support

• Need a generalized, flexible capability
• not really a 2-4 year problem
• Horses for courses
• Importance of uncertainty analysis
• Capability is diffuse diverse
• Organizational issues
• integration/separation of functions (?)
• Managing the new working arrangements
• Meeting short-term goals while creating long-term
  capability

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Challenges in Providing Decision Support

• Assessments must be
• credible
• salient
• legitimate
• Methods, models and tools Shy away from tendency
  to focus on only a few of the rich array
• Scenarios Need to look at wide array of
  scenarios not limited to scenario-driven
  climate models
• Integrating science insights and knowledge from
  other sources (e.g., indigenous perspectives)

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Challenges in Providing Decision Support

• Risk communication
• No constituency pushing for adaptation
• Need many tools and techniques to make use of
  climate model output
• Long-range forecasts are not validatable But
  usefulness and accuracy are different concepts.
  Need a generalized, flexible capability (not
  really a 2-4 year problem)

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Weaknesses

• Multiple Stresses and Regional Imperatives
• We need to do much more to energize the science
  community in service to society
• Decision-Making goes well beyond energy policy
• Good balance between research and practice ...
• but needs more prioritization (Santas wish
  list)
• More on non-CO2 greenhouse gases
• Reluctant to draw lessons from IPCC, USNA
• Need more on climate variability
• Need more detail on how to build bridge between
  research and decision makers/stakeholders
• Where is emphasis on impacts and adaptation
  analysis?

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Weaknesses

• Need more attention to international concerns

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Concerns

• Reassess
• Strategys time frames (I.e., 2-4 years for the
  CCRI and 10 years for the USGCRP)
• the necessary resources to invest in and
  implement the strategic plans
• management and coordination mechanisms for
  implementation
• 2-4 year time frame
• These things take time (e.g., uncertainty
  analysis)
• Dont wait until last minute to begin future
  assessments!

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Thank you
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Why a CCRI?

• Have flood of research results BUT not much way
  for feedback of stakeholders questions
• Decision support is a bridge
• Introduction of dialogue and a new way of doing
  things working relationships

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Importance of Risk Analysis

• Climate issue is fundamentally a problem of risk
  analysis and decision making under uncertainty
• Experience also suggests that it is more
  effective to pose climate change as a risk
  management problem to local decision makers

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Key Observations

• Scenario development has a logical 3-prong
  approach
• Historical perspectives
• What if scenarios
• Model projections
• But, we are also missing a key opportunity
• to energize the science community in service to
  society