From Uppsala to Lisbon

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From Uppsala to Lisbon
Kjell Aleklett President of ASPO Uppsala
University, Sweden
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Workshop in Uppsala 2002
The world oil depletion curve is based on all
available information on oil reserves and
estimates of the amounts yet-to-find, and
indicates that world oil production will reach a
peak around 2010 and decline thereafter. The
seminar evaluated the evidence for this forecast,
and addressed the important political and
environmental consequences. ASPO plans to update
the evaluation every year as new information and
insights come in, with the intention of providing
governments with a reliable basis for planning
their responses to this critical issue.
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Bruce StanleyAssociated Press
Oil experts warn global crude supplies could peak
by 2010 UPPSALA, Sweden -- Global supplies of
crude oil will peak as early as 2010 and then
start to decline, ushering in an era of soaring
energy prices and economic upheaval -- or so said
an international group of petroleum specialists
meeting Friday.    They hope to persuade
oil-dependent countries like the United States to
stop what they view as squandering the planet's
finite bounty of fossil fuels.    Americans, as
the biggest consumers of energy, could suffer a
particularly harsh impact on their lifestyle,
warned participants in the two-day conference on
oil depletion that began Thursday at Uppsala
University in Uppsala, Sweden.    "There is no
factual data to support the general sense that
the world will be awash in cheap oil forever,"
said Matthew Simmons, an investment banker who
helped advise President Bush's campaign on energy
policy. "We desperately need to find a new form
of energy."
The Washington Times, The Detroit News, Houston
Chronicle, Las Vegas Sun, Oil News, Bangkok
Post, The Seattle Times, Atlanta Journal,
FoxNews Channel
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One TV camera for 30 minutes
Matthew Simmons We need a wake up call. We need
it desperately. We need basically a new form of
energy. I dont know that there is one. 
Bo Holmström, TV4, Sweden
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Workshop in Paris 2003
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Doris Leblond
ASPO openly denounce the "politically correct"
view held by most policymakers and
institutionsnot to mention oil companiesthat
"near-term oil supply is mainly an economic and
geopolitical concern."
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Colin Campbell 2003
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Berlin 2004
The peak-oil debate will be the Next Big Thing.
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Berlin 2004
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Colin Campbell 2004
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Lisbon 2005 Peak Oil on everyones lips
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Lisbon 2004
The documentary workshop At least seven
teams Represented by team Kelly Way, six weeks on
the rood for peak oil
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Confucius500 BC
Study the past to define the future
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The future of energy
The end of the Oil Age
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The Hubbert model
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Oil reserve
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(No Transcript)
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US Lower 48
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(No Transcript)
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Peak in production
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The dream factories
Fathi Birol
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Dreams of unlimited production
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(No Transcript)
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Sadad Al Husseini26-Oct-2004
Sadad Al Husseini, just retired as vice-president
of the Saudi oil company Aramco The American
government's forecast for future oil supplies are
a "dangerous over-estimate".
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10 new Saudi Arabia
120.6
2 increase
Reservoir capability declines the leaking
bucket syndrome
100 mm b/d
38.6 mmbd
82 /-
80 mm b/d
97.6 mmbd
- 59 mmbd
60 mm b/d
3-5 capability decline rate
40 mm b/d
20 mm b/d
2025
2015
2005
1995
97.6 mmbd 10 Saudi Arabias by 2025
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The world needs new oil fields
ExxonMobil In other words, by 2015, we will
need to find, develop and produce a volume of new
oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every
10 barrels being produced today.
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IEA the dream factory
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• Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi at the
  Center for Strategic International Studies in
  Washington, May 17, 2005
• Remaining world oil reserves are abundant.
• Spare production capacity outside Saudi Arabia
  is minimal.
• Saudi Arabia now is pumping 9.5 million barrels
  of oil a day. The country has 1.5 million
  barrels a day of excess capacity and could
  maintain 11 million barrels a day if needed.
• There are a number of countries that can
  increase their capacity.
• There are still huge oil fields in Saudi Arabia.
  The country has enough oil to pump 12.5 million
  to 15 million barrels a day for the next 13 to 15
  years.

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Deutsche Bank, December 2, 2004
The ASPO view The end-of-the-fossil-hydrocarbons
scenario is not therefore a doom-and gloom
picture painted by pessimistic end-of-the world
prophets, but a view of scarcity in the coming
years and decades that must be taken seriously.
Forward-looking politicians, company chiefs and
economists should prepare for this in good time,
to effect the necessary transition as smoothly as
possible.
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T. Boone Pickens
"Let me tell you some facts the way I see it.
Global oil is 84 million barrels a day. I don't
believe you can get it any more than 84 million
barrels. I don't care what Abdullah, Putin or
anybody else says about oil reserves or
production. I think they are on decline in the
biggest oil fields in the world today and I know
what's it like once you turn the corner and start
declining, it's a tread mill that you just can't
keep up with. Palm Springs, May 4, 2005
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ASPO A Mission For Peace
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Colin 2005?