Turbulence JSAT Briefing Rod Bogue NASA Dryden Flight Research Center

1
TurbulenceJSAT BriefingRod BogueNASA Dryden
Flight Research Center
2
In the U.S. our focus is set by theWhite House
Commission on Aviation Safety
1.1 Government and industry should establish a
national goal to reduce the aviation fatal
accident rate by a factor of five within ten
years and conduct safety research to support that
goal. 1.2 The FAA should develop standards for
continuous safety improvement, and should target
its regulatory resources based on performance
against those standards
5.3-2
3
The National Civil Aviation Review Commission
(NCARC) on Aviation Safety Provided Additional
Direction

• FAA and the aviation industry must develop a
  strategic plan to improve safety, with specific
  priorities based on objective, quantitative
  analysis of safety information and data.
• Government should expand on their programs to
  improve aviation safety in other parts of the
  world.

5.3-3
4
Why worry about accidents?Gore Commission
Recommendation 1.1 - Government and industry
should establish a national goal to reduce the
aviation fatal accident rate by a factor of five
within ten years and conduct safety research to
support that goal.
50
Airplanes in service
25,598
45
40
12,595
35
1997
2016
30
Hull loss accidentsper year
Our goal
25
20
15
Millions of departures
10
Hull loss accident rate
5
0
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
Year
Jet Transports 60,000 lbs. or greater
5.3-4
5
Hull Loss Accident Rates by World Regionsby
Accident Site
Western-Built Transports, 1988 through 1997
C.I.S.
Europe 0.8
United States and Canada 0.5
China 2.7
JAA - 0.6 NonJAA - 1.2
Middle East 1.9
Asia 2.3
(Excluding China)
Africa 9.5
Latin America and Caribbean 4.7
Oceania 0.5
Accidents per million departures
World 1.4
Insufficient fleet experience to generate
reliable rate.
6
Potential for Totally New Airplane Designs to
Affect Safety is Very Small
25000
New Designs
20000
Number of airplanes at years end
Total Airplanes Produced After 1998
15000
10000
Retained Fleet
5000
Out of Production Models (as of 1998)
0
2005
2010
2015
2000
1998
2007
7
All Parts of Industry Must Work Together

• Each accident may involve many issues
• The degree of involvement varies with accident
  type and region of the world
• Data analysis will be used to determine actions

Flight Crew
Operator
Airplane
Weather
Air Traffic Control/ Airport
Maintenance
Other
8
Safety Responsibilities Are SharedSafe Airplane
Safe Operation Safe Infrastructure Safe Air
Travel
Including Air Traffic Service providers
9
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
10
CAST Mission
Provide government and industry leadership to
develop and focus implementation of an
integrated, data driven strategy to improve
commercial aviation safety.
Taken from Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
Master Plan, dated 10/9/98
5.3-12
11
CAST Vision
Achieve the highest levels of safety in the
domestic and international commercial aviation
system by focusing on the right things
prioritized to result in the greatest improvement
in commercial aviation safety.
CAST Goal
Reduce the commercial aviation fatal accident
rate by 2007.
Taken from Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
Master Plan, dated 10/9/98
5.3-13
12
Working Together Commercial Aviation Safety Team
FAA and the aviation industry must develop a
strategic plan to improve safety, with specific
priorities based on objective, quantitative
analysis of safety information and data. NCARC
recommendation dated 12/97.
Industry
Government

• DOD
• FAA
• Aircraft Certification
• Flight Standards
• System Safety
• Air Traffic Operations
• Research

NASA ICAO JAA
Boeing PW RAA FSF IATA
AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
Representing GE and RR
5.3-11
13
A FOCUSED AGENDA
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
GENERAL AVIATION
Controlled Flight Into Terrain
CABIN SAFETY
Pilot Decisionmaking
Loss of Control
Passenger Interference
Loss of Control
Uncontained Engine Failures
Weather
Passenger Seat Belt Use
Runway Incursion
Carry-on Baggage
Approach and Landing
Child Restraint
Survivability
Turbulence
Runway Incursions
14
JSAT Organizational Relationships
15
Safety Analysis Process
1.
NTSB Accident Incident Reports
2.
21.3 Reports
NASDAC data
Airclaims data
Historical Data
FOQA data
Industry
Pareto Plots CAST
CAST
5.3-23
16
Safety Analysis Process
1.
NTSB Accident Incident Reports
2.
21.3 Reports
NASDAC data
Airclaims data
Historical Data
FOQA data
Pareto Plots CAST
Industry
CAST
3.
Threat
Accident
4.
Combined Threat
Causal Analysis
Intervention Strategy
Cause
Cause
Cause
Cause
JSAT
JSAT
5.3-23
17
Safety Analysis Process
1.
NTSB Accident Incident Reports
2.
21.3 Reports
NASDAC data
Airclaims data
Historical Data
FOQA data
Pareto Plots CAST
Industry
CAST
3.
Threat
Accident
4.
Combined Threat
Causal Analysis
Intervention Strategy
Cause
Cause
Cause
Cause
JSAT
JSAT
5.3-23
18
CAST Process Summary

• Government Industry Partnership
• Integrated Focused Strategy
• Data-Driven
• Optimized for Safety Benefits
• Reviews of Results to Adjust Focus

19
JSAT Progress Status in the CAST Process
Data Analysis
Set Safety Priorities
Implement Safety Enhancements
Select highest leverage areas of interest
Review/approve JSAT report
JSIT
9/00
CAST
Immediate Action initial approval
Initiate/ approve JSIT
CAST
3/99
CAST
Initiate/ approve JSAT
Immediate Action specific plans
CAST
Conduct JSIT Analysis
8/99
JSIT
CAST
Conduct JSAT analysis
Final Immediate Action approval
ID Immediate Action(s)
Prepare initial project proposals
JSIT
6/00
CAST
JSIT
JSAT
Execute Monitor progress
Initial project selection
Immediate Action approval
JSIT / CAST
CAST
Adjustments as necessary
Integrate into existing work and distribute
Achieve consensus on priorities
Agree on problems and interventions
4/20/99
20
JSAT Status

• Accident Data Set Defined
• Event Sequences Developed
• Standard Problem Statements Defined
• Draft Interventions Developed
• Report to CAST 8/30/00