Cynthia Selin

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Scenarios for Nanotechnologies Development
NANO GIGA MARCH 16, 2007
Cynthia Selin Post Doctoral Research Associate
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Sec 2(b)(10) Establish societal implications
research program Require NSECs address societal
implications Integrate societal concerns with
nano RD for benefit of all Provide for public
input
THE U.S. 21ST CENTURY NANOTECHNOLOGY RD ACT OF
2003 (PL 108-153)
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• Awards made Fall 2005
• NSEC/Center for Nanotechnology in Society at
  Arizona State University
• 6.2 million
• NSEC/Center for Nanotechnology in Society at UC
  Santa Barbara
• 5 million
• Project at Harvard/UCLA (1.7 M)
• Project at University of South Carolina (1.4 M)

Network for Nanotechnology in Society
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ASUs CENTER FOR NANOTECHNOLOGY IN SOCIETY
Testing the hypothesis participatory,
deliberative processes will stimulate efforts to
enhance desirable impacts and mitigate
undesirable ones through decisions made by NSE
researchers about research priorities and
directions
Guston Sarewitz 2002
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REAL TIME TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT(RTTA)

• RTTA 1 - Research and Innovation Systems Analysis
  
• Research Program Assessment
• Public Value Mapping
• Workforce Assessment
• RTTA 2 - Public Opinion and Values
• Public Opinion
• Media Influence
• Scientists Opinions
• RTTA 3 Deliberation and Participation
• Scenario Development
• Innovation Space
• Critical Corps
• National Citizens Technology Forum
• RTTA 4 - Reflexivity Assessment and Evaluation
• Reflexivity Assessment
• Boundary Organizations

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REAL TIME TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

• INTEGRATION Embedded in knowledge creation
  process, integrated in existing processes
• REFLEXIVE polling, focus groups, socio-technical
  mapping and dialogue between producers and
  consumers
• ENGAGEMENT latent publics, lab researchers,
  broad stakeholders
• ANTICIPATION Uses retrospective prospective
  analysis- to situate innovations in context

RTTA AS A DIFFERENCE
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WHY ANTICIPATION MATTERS

• Not prediction!
• Premature, emergent S T
• Latent publics
• Contentious debate
• Promises, hype expectations

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• We believe investments in nanoelectronics are
  essential to start the engine of the
  technological revolution of the next decade"
  --Dr. Hans Stork, Chief Technology Officer, Texas
  Instruments
• Nanotechnology is among the fastest-growing
  fields of research. It has unlimited potential to
  change the way we live. " --U.S. Senator Kay
  Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas)
• "In a sense this (nanotechnology theory) would
  allow you to play God" --Pablo Debenedetti,
  Professor of Chemical Engineering, Princeton
  University

VISIONS, HYPE AND EXPECTATIONS
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EXPECTATIONS VISIONS OF FUTURE CONSEQUENCES

• Functional to sense- and decision making in the
  present
• Evolve are dynamic continually generated and
  discarded
• Operate as schemata, modulated by experience and
  knowledge

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WHY ANTICIPATION MATTERS

• Expectations are constitutive elements of the
  innovation process

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WHY ANTICIPATION MATTERS

• Not prediction!
• Premature, emergent S T
• Latent publics
• Contentious debate
• Promises, hype expectations

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• To develop multiple, plausible visions of
  nanotechnology enabled futures, elucidate public
  preferences for various alternatives

ANTICIPATION AT CNS
Goals
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• possibility-based
• narrativity
• multiplicity of story lines
• plausibility
• internal consistency

CHARACTERISTICS OF SCENARIOS
LINK TO FORESIGHT
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USES FOR SCENARIOS

• Decision Making
• Generating Creativity
• Learning
• Framing Debate
• Focusing Vision
• Building Identities
• Consensus
• Formulating Strategic Plans

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ANTICIPATION AT CNS
To cultivate societys ability to govern the
implications of its own ingenuity
Goals
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                                                                   "If present trends in nanoscience and nanotechnology continue, most aspects of everyday life are subject to change." - National Science and Technology Council                      
                                                         Who controls your Nano Futures? Here are ten scenarios exploring possible futures of nanotechnology. Will they come true? Should they? Why or why not? Who gets to decide? Will it be you? This site is your opportunity to interactively construct the future. Click below to READ the scenarios and MODIFY them- DISCUSS them- and if you dont like ours, WRITE your own! Tattoo Remorse? Tomorrow's Sponge? Attack of the Autonomous Window Cleaners Brain Drain My Gulag Surviving Brain Enhancement DNA Sewer Shake it Like a Can of Soup Is Someone Tracking Your Every Step? PanOpticon "Now nanotechnology had made nearly anything possible, and so the cultural role in deciding whatshould be done with it had become far more important than imagining what could be done with it." Neal Stephenson "Every time I see an adult on a bicycle, I no longer despair for the future of the human race." H.G. Wells                             

• Naïve product scenarios
• Web-based wiki forum
• Focus on plausibility

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RTTA 3 Scenario Development
Social Scientists
Publics
Nanoscientists Engineers
Which audiences?
Public Policy
Vision and technical Database
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NANOFUTURES
Surviving Brain Enhancement
Implantable chips to relay stored or beamed
information directly into the brain.
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(No Transcript)
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NANOFUTURES
My Gulag
Bar-less prisons that use nano-scale drug
distribution systems, set in prisoners bodies
and triggered by radio frequencies, to
incapacitate potential escapees.
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NANOFUTURES
Nano-scale tagents to stick to, label, and
track anything and any exposure situation.
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RTTA Scenario Development
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ROLE OF NANOSCALE SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS

• Should scientists be involved in vetting the
  scenarios?
• Technical feasibility
• Potential for realization
• Internal consistency
• Logic of development
• How to validate scenarios of the future?
• What does plausibility mean to you?

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REAL TIME TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT at CNS

• Ensemble Mixed Approach
• Anticipatory Governance
• Taking Science, Technology and Society
  Innovation Learning Seriously
• Web address http//cns.asu.edu