Air Quality and Energy: Problem or Opportunity?

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Air Quality and EnergyProblem or Opportunity?
NEDRI July 16, 2002
Ken Colburn Northeast States for Coordinated Air
Use Management kcolburn_at_nescaum.org
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Simultaneous Economic Growth and Environmental
Improvement
Sources 1970 - 1999 emissions data is from the
National Air Pollutant Emissions Trend Report,
(EPA, March 2000). Projections for SO2 and NOx
are derived from the Integrated Planning Model
(IPM). GDP data through 2000 is from the Bureau
of Economic Analysis, GDP projections follow
EIAs assumptions in AEO 2001 of 3 growth per
year.
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Starting Point

• Public Officials Job Quality of Life
• QOL
• Healthy Bodies,
• Healthy Economy, and
• Healthy Ecosystems
• Increasingly, the interests of the environment
  and economic well-being are aligned
• So, economic and environmental regulators need to
  align better as well.

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Acid Deposition Levels in the United States
Source US EPA
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Atmospheric Deposition Estimates for Total
Nitrogen, 1996
Source US EPA
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Impact of Ozone on White Pine Health as Measured
by Red Edge Inflection Point (REIP)
NH Forest Products Industry 1.6 billion direct
economic impact annually
Source UNH Forest Watch
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Anthropogenic Mercury Deposition Rates in the
United States
NH Fishing Industry 300 million annual
economic impact
Source USEPA, Mercury Study Report to Congress,
December 1997.
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Visibility Impairment in New Hampshires White
Mountains Mt. Jefferson photographed from AMCs
Camp Dodge at near natural conditions (6
deciviews) and at 90 percentile haze (28
deciviews)

Source Appalachian Mountain Club
Tourism is NHs 2nd largest industry, with 3.5
billion direct economic impact annually
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Temperature Change in New England
1985-1999 (Source NERA, 2001)
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Changes in Dominant Forest Types Under Two
Climate Scenarios
Source U.S. Global Change Research Program
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NEG-ECP Climate Commitment Why Should States
Start? Our Actions Count!

• 1997 GHG Emissions
• NESCAUM States gt Canada, Korea, Italy, Mexico,
  Australia, Brazil, France, Spain
• New York gt Taiwan, Venezuela
• New England gt Netherlands, Argentina
• New Jersey gt Egypt, Belgium, Algeria
• Massachusetts gt Greece, Austria, Denmark, Kuwait,
  Norway, Sweden, Israel, Portugal
• Connecticut gt Switzerland, Ireland, New Zealand,
  Peru
• Maine gt Croatia, Estonia, Tunisia
• New Hampshire gt Lithuania, Jordan, Ivory Coast
• Rhode Island gt Bolivia, Jamaica, Panama, Kenya
• Vermont gt Paraguay, Tanzania, Iceland, Cyprus

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Air pollution and climate change problems largely
share a common root Energy
But can we address Energy without injuring the
Economy?
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Energy Reliability

• Demand-side investments (e.g., energy efficiency)
  are less expensive and more reliable than fixing
  weak links in the supply side (Generation, TD)

• EE enhances reliability of each link vs. having
  the Next Weak Link emerge

• EE load reductions follow load profile well, so
  they diminish peaks

• Slightly lower peaks produce substantial savings
  and avoid costly, little-used, supply-side
  upgrades

• EE reduces environmental impact (e.g., fuel use,
  emissions, need to site new plants and TD lines,
  and future environmental risk)

(Source Efficient Reliability, Cowart/RAP, 2001)
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Energy and National Security

• Energy Security is best served by
• Fewer vulnerable targets like centralized fossil
  plants, nukes, dams, refineries, pipelines, and
  transmission facilities
• More distributed generation (DG)
• Less imported oil
• More energy efficiency, energy conservation and
  Demand-Side Management (DSM)
• National Security better served by
• Above items
• Greater multi-lateralism on all fronts

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An Economic Sea Change is Underway
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Evidence of an Economic Sea Change

• ACEEE Energy/GDP fell 42 from 1970-1999
• Global Business Competitiveness
• Power Quality Reliability is more and more
  important
• Bank of Omaha example (chose fuel cells)
• Companies Need to Reduce Vulnerability to Price
  Shocks, Supply Disruptions, etc.
• Basis of Financial Performance and International
  Competitiveness is Changing (Triple Bottom
  Line)
• Economic Opportunity Who will own the
  patents?
• Dollar cost savings that Energy Efficiency
  provides
• New England High Electric Rates, but
• Low Poverty Rate, Unemployment Rate, etc.
• High Growth in Jobs, Businesses, Per Capita
  Income

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Place Matters More in the New Economy
In an economy where physical assets are not as
important as they used to be, where intellectual
assets dominate, where business can be conducted
from anywhere to anywhere, it would seem that
place should not matter in fact, it matters
more. Places through the quality of life they
offer matter because entrepreneurs and highly
skilled and sought-after workers want to live in
areas with educational, cultural, natural and
civic amenities.1 emphasis added 1 NetworkNH
(a consortium of high tech companies), NH in
the 21st Century, Competing in the New Economy,
December 1, 2000, p. 16. See
http//www.network.com
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Old or New Energy Path?
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Thank you for your time and attention!