BIOFUELS BREAKOUT DUBUQUE

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BIOFUELS BREAKOUT DUBUQUE

• Dennis Keeney
• Senior Fellow
• Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy

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Ethanol The Elephant in the watershed
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CLIMATE CHANGE
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For the Midwest (from IPPC)

• Warming will be greater in winter than summer
• Warming will be greater at night than during the
  day
• A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples
  the probability of a heat wave
• Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer
  now than in 1950)
• More precipitation
• Likely more soil moisture in summer
• More rain will come in intense rainfall events
• Higher stream flow, more flooding

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Climate Change Soil Erosion

• 20 gtprecipitation leads to 37 gterosion
• Runoff gt 10 - 310 for different Midwest
  regions
• Soil loss gt 33 - 274 for different Midwest
  regions

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Water needs for ethanol production

• Ethanol plants consume water during various
  processes in the plant
• 4 gallons water withdraw/gallon ethanol produced
• Require high quality water, usually ground water
• Plants are located close to corn supplies,
  railroads, other infrastructure, not close to
  water
• Siting issues have developed in MN, MO, IL, KS
  and elsewhere
• Climate change indicates a trend to dryer
  weather, affecting both water and grain
  availability

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ETHANOL PLANT LOCATIONS MAY 2008
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BIODIESEL PLANTS 2008
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Corn-based ethanol production compromises goal of
reducing nitrogen export by the Mississippi River
Simon D. Donner, and Christopher J. Kucharik

• gt in corn cultivation required to meet the goal
  of 1536 billion gallons of renewable fuels by
  the year 2022 would gt the annual average flux of
  dissolved inorganic nitrogen by 1034.
• Generating 15 billion gallons of corn-based
  ethanol by the year 2022 will gt the odds that
  annual DIN export exceeds the target set for
  reducing hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico to gt95.

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Potential relative reductions in nitrate leaching
in Corn Belt for specific corn/soybean management
changes
Little to no expected impact - Minor expected
impact Intermediate Expected impact Big
expected impact Huge expected impact

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Probable Renewable Scenarios
Probable Renewable Scenarios 2015Cellulose to
Liquid

• Cellulosic to liquid requires technology
  breakthroughs and higher prices at the farm than
  early projections
• DOE and most other studies show cellulose _at_
  35/ton
• Recent in-field Iowa studies peg switchgrass
  production costs _at_50-65 per acre, plus 25 per
  ton handling/hauling.
• With total costs at 75-90 per ton before farmer
  margins, dedicated Midwest energy crops face more
  challenges than previously estimated

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Trends in Precipitation
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