Triangle Conference on Peak Oil and Community Solutions

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Triangle Conference on Peak Oil and Community
Solutions

• Duke University
• March 25, 2006

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Co-sponsored by NCPowerdown and the Duke
University Greening Initiative.Keynote address
by Larry Shirley, State Energy Office Director

• How will the global peak in oil production
  affect our community and change our lives? What
  can we do to prepare ourselves, our families and
  friends?

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Presenters Directory

• Presentations on energy, transportation, food
  production, and planned communities speakers
  included
• Patricia Allison, Earthaven Ecovillage
• Giles Blunden, Carrboro Collaborative Development
  Association
• Rachel Burton Lyle Estill, Piedmont Biofuels
• Shawn Fitzpatrick, NC Solar Center
• Mike Lanier, Orange County Agricultural Extension
  Agent
• Tami Schwerin, Chatham Marketplace Coop
• Tim Bennett and Sally Erickson, Director and
  Producer, What a Way to Go

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Production of oil has been greater than
discoveries for a quarter century
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What is Peak Oil?

• Peak Oil is the simplest label for the
  problem of energy resource depletion, or more
  specifically, the peak in global oil production.
  Oil is a finite, non-renewable resource, one that
  has powered phenomenal economic and population
  growth over the last century and a half. The rate
  of oil 'production,' meaning extraction and
  refining (currently about 84 million
  barrels/day), has grown in most years over the
  last century, but once we go through the halfway
  point of all reserves, production becomes ever
  more likely to decline, hence 'peak'. Peak Oil
  means not 'running out of oil', but 'running out
  of cheap oil'. For societies leveraged on ever
  increasing amounts of cheap oil, the consequences
  may be dire. Without significant successful
  cultural reform, economic and social decline
  seems inevitable.

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Why does oil peak? Why doesn't it suddenly run
out?

• Oil companies have, naturally enough, extracted
  the easier-to-reach, cheap oil first. The oil
  pumped first was on land, near the surface, under
  pressure, light and 'sweet' (meaning low sulfur
  content) and therefore easy to refine into
  gasoline. The remaining oil, sometimes off shore,
  far from markets, in smaller fields, or of lesser
  quality, takes ever more money and energy to
  extract and refine. Under these conditions, the
  rate of extraction inevitably drops. Furthermore,
  all oil fields eventually reach a point where
  they become economically, and energetically, no
  longer viable. If it takes the energy of a
  barrel of oil to extract a barrel of oil, then
  further extraction is pointless.

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M. King Hubbert - the first to predict an oil
peak.

• In the 1950s a U.S. geologist working for
  Shell, M. King Hubbert, noticed that oil
  discoveries graphed over time, tended to follow a
  bell shape curve. He posited that the rate of oil
  production would follow a similar curve, now
  known as the Hubbert Curve (see figure). In 1956
  Hubbert predicted that production from the US
  lower 48 states would peak in 1970.

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Big Oil Denies Reality

• Shell tried to pressure Hubbert into not making
  his projections public, but the notoriously
  stubborn Hubbert went ahead and released them. In
  any case, most people inside and outside the
  industry quickly dismissed Hubbert's predictions.
  In 1970 US oil producers had never produced as
  much, and Hubbert's predictions were a fading
  memory. But Hubbert was right, US continental oil
  production did peak in 1970/71, although it was
  not widely recognized for several years, and only
  with the benefit of hindsight.

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The Looming Energy Crisis

• No oil producing region fits the bell shaped
  curve exactly because production is dependent on
  various geological, economic and political
  factors, but the Hubbert Curve remains a powerful
  predictive tool.
• Although it passed by largely unnoticed, the U.S.
  oil peak was arguably the most significant
  geopolitical event of the mid to late 20th
  Century, creating the conditions for the energy
  crises of the 1970s, leading to far greater U.S.
  strategic emphasis on controling foreign sources
  of oil, and spelling the begining of the end of
  the status of the U.S as the world's major
  creditor nation. The U.S. of course was able to
  import oil from elsewhere, and life continued
  there with only minimal interruption. When
  global oil production peaks however, the
  implications will be far greater.

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So when will oil peak globally?

• Hubbert went on to predict a global oil peak
  between 1995 and 2000. He may have been close to
  the mark except that the oil shocks of the 1970s
  slowed our use of oil. As the following figure
  shows, global oil discovery peaked in the late
  1960s. Since the mid-1980s, oil companies have
  been finding less oil than we have been
  consuming.

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54 of 65 Oil Producers have already peaked.

• Of the 65 largest oil producing countries in the
  world, up to 54 have past their peak of
  production and are now in decline, including the
  USA (in 1970/71) and the North Sea (in 2001).
  Hubbert's methods, and variations on them, have
  been used to make various projections about the
  global oil peak, with results ranging from
  'already peaked', to the very optimistic 2035.
  Many of the official sources of data used to
  model oil peak such as OPEC figures, oil company
  reports, and the USGS discovery projections, upon
  which the international energy agencies base
  their own reports, can be shown to be very
  unreliable. Several notable scientists have
  attempted independent studies, most notably Colin
  Campbell and the Association for the Study of
  Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO).

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ASPOs Analysis
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Regular oil peaked in 2004

• ASPO's latest model suggests that 'regular' oil
  peaked in 2004. If heavy oil, deepwater, polar
  and natural gas liquids are considered, the oil
  peak is projected for around 2010. Combined oil
  and gas, as shown above, are expected to also
  peak around 2010. Other researchers such as
  Kenneth Deffeyes and A. M. Samsam Bakhtiari have
  produced models with similar or even earlier
  projected dates for oil peak. Precise predictions
  are difficult as much secrecy shrouds important
  oil and gas data.

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Independent studies agree.

• Other quite different types of analysis have
  provided supporting evidence to these 'early
  peak' scenarios, most notably UK Petroleum Review
  editor Chris Skrebowski's Oilfields Megaproject
  reports, and energy banker Matthew Simmons'
  analysis of Saudi Arabian oil fields.
• The effects of natural gas peak are more
  localized due to the economic and energetic
  expense of liquefying and transporting natural
  gas as LNG. Both British and North American
  natural gas production have already peaked, so
  these nations may be facing dual energy crises.

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What does Peak Oil mean for us?

• Our industrial societies and our financial
  systems were built on the assumption of continual
  growth growth based on ever more readily
  available cheap fossil fuels. Oil in particular
  is the most convenient and multi-purposed of
  these fossil fuels. Oil currently accounts for
  about 43 of the world's total fuel consumption
  PDF, and 95 of global energy used for
  transportation PDF. Oil is so important that
  the peak will have vast implications across the
  realms of geopolitics, lifestyles, agriculture
  and economic stability. Significantly, for every
  one joule of food consumed in the United States,
  around 10 joules of fossil fuel energy have been
  used to produce it.

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The Hirsch Report

• A risk mitigation study on Peak Oil was released
  in early 2005, commissioned by the US Department
  of Energy. Prepared by the Science Applications
  International Corporation (SAIC), and titled
  Peaking of World Oil Production Impacts,
  Mitigation and Risk Management PDF, it is
  known commonly as the Hirsch Report after its
  primary author Robert L. Hirsch. The executive
  summary of the report warns that "as peaking is
  approached, liquid fuel prices and price
  volatility will increase dramatically, and,
  without timely mitigation, the economic, social,
  and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable
  mitigation options exist on both the supply and
  demand sides, but to have substantial impact,
  they must be initiated more than a decade in
  advance of peaking." Emphasis added.
  Unfortunately nothing like the kind of efforts
  envisaged have yet begun.

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But it's just oil - there are other fossil fuels,
other energy sources, right?

• To evaluate other energy sources it helps to
  understand the concepts of Net Energy, or the
  Energy Returned on Energy Invested ratio (ERoEI).
  One of the reasons our economies have grown so
  abundant so quickly over the last few generations
  is precisely because oil has had an unprecedently
  high ERoEI ratio. In the early days of oil, for
  every barrel of oil used for exploration and
  drilling, up to 100 barrels of oil were found.
  More recently, as oil recovery becomes more
  difficult, the ratio has become significantly
  lower. Certain alternative energy 'sources' may
  actually have ERoEI ratios of less than one, such
  as some photovoltaics and most methods of
  industrially producing biodiesel and ethanol.
  That is, when all factors are considered, you
  probably need to invest more energy into the
  process than you get back.

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Hydrogen Fuel

• Hydrogen, touted by many as a seamless
  solution, is actually an energy carrier, but not
  an energy source. Hydrogen must be produced using
  an energy source such as natural gas or nuclear
  power. Because of energy losses in
  transformation, the hydrogen will always contain
  less energy than was invested in it.

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Wind Hydro-Power

• Some alternatives such as wind and
  hydro-power have much better ERoEI, however their
  potential expansion may be limited by various
  physical factors. Even in combination it may not
  be possible to gather from renewable sources of
  energy anything like the amount of energy that
  industrial society is accustomed to. Richard
  Heinberg uses the metaphor that whereas fossil
  fuels might be considered a massive energy
  inheritance, and one spent perhaps unwisely,
  renewables are much more akin to a hard won
  energy wage.

Small-scale Hydro Power
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What can be done?

• Many people are working on partial solutions at
  various different levels, but there is probably
  no cluster of solutions which do not involve some
  major changes in lifestyles, especially for the
  global affluent. Peak Oil presents the potential
  for quite catastrophic upheavals, but also some
  more hopeful possibilities, a chance to address
  many underlying societal problems, and the
  opportunity return to simpler, healthier and more
  community oriented lifestyles.

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The Post Carbon Institute Outposts.

• The Post Carbon Institute is a think tank devoted
  to exploring the implications of, and preparing
  for, Peak Oil, focusing on relocalization. They
  write, the most important initiative of the Post
  Carbon Institute is working with groups of
  concerned citizens to prepare their community for
  the Post Carbon Age. These groups are Outposts in
  the sense that they are community-based
  extensions of the Post Carbon Institute they
  operate autonomously yet receive guidance and
  electronic infrastructure from the Institute.
  Outposts work cooperatively in their local
  community to put theory about living with less
  hydrocarbons into practice while sharing
  knowledge and experiences with the global network
  of outposts. www.postcarbon.orgwww.relocalize.n
  et

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The Community Solution

• Many excellent resources are available through
  the website of this US based organization
  "dedicated to the development, growth and
  enhancement of small local communities... that
  are sustainable, diverse and culturally
  sophisticated."
• The Community Solution has organized two recent
  grassroots Peak Oil conferences, and has
  developed a case study of Cuba, a country which
  has relatively successfully adapted to an
  artificial oil peak. www.communitysolution.org

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Permaculture

• Permaculture is a 'design science' which can
  allow us to live in relative abundance with
  minimal resource use. Permaculture principles can
  be used to functionally redesign social systems,
  built environments, ecological and agricultural
  practices for energy descent. David Holmgren's
  recent book, Permaculture Principles and
  Pathways Beyond Sustainability, deals explicitly
  with the global oil peak and proposes
  permaculture as the best set of strategies for
  dealing with 'energy descent'. www.permaculture.o
  rg.auwww.holmgren.com.au
• Local www.earthaven.org

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Intentional Communities

• Intentional Community (IC) is an inclusive term
  for ecovillages, cohousing, residential land
  trusts, communes, student co-ops, urban housing
  cooperatives and other related projects and
  dreams... ICs represent one of the sanest ways of
  dealing with energy peak.www.ic.orggen.ecovillag
  e.orgwww.cohousing.org

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Where can I get more information?

• Several articles already published on this site
  provide good introductions to this topicThe
  coming global energy crunch. A great introductory
  article by Aaron NaparstekPlan War and the
  Hubbert Oil Curve, an interview with Richard
  HeinbergThe Petroleum Plateau by Richard
  Heinberg on the current plateau in world oil
  production.Debunking the mainstream media's lies
  about oil by Dale Allen Pfeiffer The oil we eat
  by Richard Manning looks at modern agricultures'
  dependence on fossil fuels
• There are some great introductory websites
  likeWolf at the Door A Beginner's Guide to
  Oil Depletion - available in French, Polish and
  English.Life After The Oil Crash a question
  and answer style introduction. Peak Oil Center -
  a very concise introduction.

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Break Out Sessions

• Doers at the Cutting Edge

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Energy

• Shawn Fitzpatrick, NC Solar Centerserves as a
  clearinghouse for solar and other renewable
  energy programs, information, research, technical
  assistance, and training for the citizens of
  North Carolina and beyond. http//www.ncsc.ncsu.ed
  u
• Dr. Ed Cox, NC Sustainable Energy Assoc.serves
  as a clearinghouse for action on sustainable
  energy alternatives here in NC.http//www.ncsusta
  inableenergy.org

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Transportation

• Lyle Estill Rachel Burton, Piedmont Biofuelsa
  cooperative where people can buy clean, renewable
  biodiesel fuel. http//www.biofuels.coopLocal
  Blue Ridge Biodiesel in Asheville
  http//www.blueridgebiofuels.com
• Patrick McDonough, The Village Projecta
  community design facilitation
  organization.http//www.thevillageproject.com

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Food

• Aaron Newton, Land Planner and Community
  Gardener
• Tami Schwerin, Chatham MarketplaceChatham
  Marketplace is a co-op grocery that will be
  located in Chatham Mills, an 80,000-square-foot
  former textile mill located just north of
  Pittsboro, NC. It will offer a full selection of
  organically and sustainably grown produce as
  much as possible from local growers.
  http//www.chathammarketplace.com

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Intentional Communitiesand Low Impact Lifestyle

• Patricia Allison, Earthaven Ecovillagean
  aspiring ecovillage in a mountain forest setting
  near Asheville, North Carolina. We are dedicated
  to caring for people and the Earth by learning,
  living, and demonstrating a holistic, sustainable
  culture. www.earthaven.org
• Giles Blunden, Carrboro Collaborative Development
  Associationestablished in 2001 to fill a void in
  the market place for consciously designed
  neighborhoods that address critical issues of
  environmental impact, walkability, and the
  building of relationships in new neighborhoods.
  http//carrborocollaborative.com

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Video Resources

• How Cuba Survived Peak Oil by The Community
  SolutionHow Cuba adjusted after the fall of the
  Soviet Union and the cutoff of its oil
  imports.http//www.communitysolution.org/cuba.htm
  l
• What a Way to Go - Life At the End of Empireby
  Tim Bennett and Sally Ericksonhttp//www.whataway
  togomovie.com

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Our in-car community

• Patricia Allison permaculture teacher
  consultant from Earthaven Ecovillage in Black
  Mountain.
• Peggy Earthaven intern?
• Jerome Chambless founder of Zap-A-Doo, a
  biological preparation that contains a
  bio-diverse mixture of micro-organisms plus the
  essential nutrient supplementation necessary to
  completely recycle animal waste without the
  production of foul odors. 
• Andrew Allenbaugh economist with a background
  in environmental services, disaster relief
  efforts, and customer support marketing
  services.
• Alan McRae founder of McRae Management Corp, a
  computer management consulting firm, with a
  specialty in application software, network
  security, and internet marketing. Also,
  lodgekeeper webmaster of Maggies Place
  BB/Retreat Center in Waynesville.

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Conference Follow Up

• With Spring coming, what actions can we take to
  improve sustainability in our lives in our
  communities?
• How can we help each other to reach a larger
  audience with our skills, products, services and
  creative ideas?

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The End

• Feel free to distribute this, edit it and help
  motivate others to get involved in sustainability.