THE FUTURE OF RURAL AMERICA THROUGH A SOCIALDEMOGRAPHIC LENS

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THE FUTURE OF RURAL AMERICA THROUGH A
SOCIAL-DEMOGRAPHIC LENS

• DAVID L. BROWN
• DEVELOPMENT SOCIOLOGY
• CORNELL UNIVERSITY

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What I Will Do Today

• Examine four dimensions of social-demographic
  change over the last 30 years
• Some would have been predictable in 1970, others
  are distinct breaks with the past
• Discuss the implications of these changes for the
  future of rural America
• Population change induces changes in other
  aspects of community and society
• Changes are contingent on
• Strength of local social organization
• The macro political economy
• The policy environment

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Basic Perspective

• Structural Change, not stability, is the typical
  situation in rural America
• The social-demographic lens
• Demographic change affects Social Structure and
  vice versa

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Structural Change, not stability, is the typical
rural situation

• Four dimensions of rural socio-demographic change
• Changing population size and increased
  demographic diversity
• Changing rural livelihoods
• Heightened rural incorporation within expanding
  metro regions
• Winners and losers new opportunities, persisting
  disadvantage

Population Change And Rural Society
Edited by William Kandel
and David L. Brown
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I. Changes in Population Size Demographic
Composition Since 1970
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Rural Population Size Change
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Why the Decreasing Share?

• International migration is an increasingly
  important component of US growth
• Majority goes to urban areas
• Rapidly growing rural counties are creamed off
  into the urban category
• Rural residual is slower growing

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What About Urban to Rural Internal Migration?

• Many researchers expect long term Population
  Deconcentration?
• Rural-Urban Convergence Plus Preference for
  Smaller Places
• I Predict
• Deconcentration Only When the Rural Economy is
  Relatively Strong
• Over the long term internal migration will NOT
  affect rural share of total population
• Declines at one time will cancel Gains in another
• And international migration will continue to go
  primarily to urban destinations

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Rural Aging
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Ethnic Diversity Hispanic Population Growth
Redistribution
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Hispanic Population Growth
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II. Changing Livelihoods
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Changing Rural Dependence on Selected Types of
Economic Activity
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Non Met wage as Met
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Economic Structure of Rural America
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Increased Rural Commuting

• Are rural areas becoming increasingly
  residential ?

Where do rural people work, shop, and obtain
services? Where do rural people participate
in civil society?
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Amenity-Based Development
Only 5 Pct. of rural jobs, but much more
important In many places.
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Retirement Destinations Are Not All in the South
and Southwest
Where will baby boom retirees live? More
rural retirement destinations?
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Retirement Destinations

• Retirement migration induces migration at working
  and younger ages
• Doesnt contribute to population aging as much as
  might be expected
• Retiree migrants have relatively high income and
  effectively demand professional services,
  consumer goods, etc.
• Retiree migrants participate in local civil
  society, voluntary organizations, etc.
• So, both economic and social benefits

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What are the Implications of High Dependence on
Recreation Tourism?

• Recreation dependent areas have higher average
  income than other rural counties,
• But what about income distribution?
• Well paying, secure jobs for some persons, but
  low wage, seasonal jobs for many others

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Metropolitan Expansion will Incorporate More
Rural Areas
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Metropolitan Expansion

• Suburban expansion began around the 1920s in the
  US
• 236 of 298 new metropolitan counties in 2000
  were peripheral additions to existing MSAs
• Wasteful sprawl or managed growth?
• Lots of variation across areas

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What about Farming and Farmland?

• No evidence of accelerated farmland conversion
• No reason to expect acceleration in future
• Some forms of farming do well in the citys
  shadow

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New Opportunities vs. Persistent Disadvantage?

• New Opportunities
• Recreation
• Retirement destinations
• Commuter areas
• Persistent Disadvantage
• Areas
• Delta, Appalachia, Indian Land, Rio Grande Valley
• Population groups
• Racial and ethnic minorities
• Female headed families

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HIGH-POVERTY NON-METRO COUNTIES, 1959-1999
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Poverty rates for select groups
Poverty rates by family type, 2002 People living
in female-headed families have highest poverty
rates
Poverty rates by race and ethnicity, 2002
Nonmetro Blacks, Native Americans, and
Hispanics have highest poverty rates
Note Percent of people in families, either
primary or related subfamily, who are poor.
Note Hispanic is defined as anyone who is
Spanish, Hispanic, or Latino. All Race
categories exclude Hispanics. Native Americans
includes American Indians, Eskimos, and Aleuts.
White, Black, and Native American categories
exclude persons who respond with multiple races.
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Persistent Poverty is Self Perpetuating

• Function of
• past legacies
• contemporary public and private sector failures
• No reason to expect persistent poverty areas to
  do better in the future?
• Historical legacies are too strong
• Contemporary class and race structures constrain
  pathways out of poverty
• No political will to ameliorate this situation

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What Will Americas Rural Population Be Like in
the Future?

• Pop 1. Smaller percentage of nations
  population
• 2. Older, more ethnically diverse
• Econ 3. Dependence on goods production will
  stabilize, but job quality will deteriorate
• 4. Service sector growth will specialize
  in amenity and aging related niches
• 5. Residences will be increasingly
  separated from the location of employment
• Urbanize 6. Metropolitan areas will strengthen
  their social and economic dominance
  over rural areas
• 7. Farming in the citys shadow will
  continue to succeed
• Poverty 8. Both geographic and socioeconomic
  inequality will persist, and perhaps
  deepen

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Implications of Past Trends Expected futures

• The impacts of changes in population size,
  composition and geographic distribution are not
  automatic.
• Contingent on
• Local social structure
• Macro structural environment
• Policy environment

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Population Change Affects other Aspects of
Community Well Being

• Population
• Change
• Size
• Composition
• Distribution

• Social Economic
• Well Being
• Unemployment
• Poverty reduction
• Land conversion
• Service provision

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Population Impacts are Mediated by Local Social
Economic Structure

• Population
• Change
• Size
• Composition
• Distribution

• Social Economic
• Well Being
• Unemployment
• Poverty reduction
• Land conversion
• Service provision

Local social economic structure
Local structure mediates the impact of population
change on well being
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Localities are Embedded in Macro Structural
Policy Environments

• Policy Choice
• Efficiency
• Equity

• Population
• Change
• Size
• Composition
• Distribution

• Social Economic
• Well Being
• Unemployment
• Poverty reduction
• Land conversion
• Service provision

Local social economic structure

• Macro economy
• Polity
• Devolution
• Privatization
• Globalization

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Community Well Being is Contingent on Strong
Social Structure

• Local Social
• Economic
• Structure
• Civic community
• Social capital
• Inclusiveness
• responsiveness

• Social Economic
• Well Being
• Unemployment
• Poverty reduction
• Land conversion
• Service provision

Should rural developers admonish places to
become more social?
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Why is Effective Community More Likely to Emerge
in Some Populations?

• Local Social
• Economic
• Structure
• Civic community
• Social capital
• Inclusiveness
• responsiveness

• Social Economic
• Well Being
• Unemployment
• Poverty reduction
• Land conversion
• Service provision

Historical Political Legacies Contemporary Con
straints Facilitators
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The Rural Policy Choice

• Rural Places are Inefficient Do Not Merit
  Support
• Promote and Facilitate Rural Development

OR
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The Rural Policy Choice

• Rural Places are Inefficient Do Not Merit
  Support
• Capital and labor should be encouraged to move
  from inefficient to more efficient locations
• Public support of inefficient economies reduces
  the nations overall growth, and diminishes
  spread effects
• No sentiment for home places. Places are simply
  sites of production -- interchangeable
• Workers will gladly move between local economies
  to increase their economic security
• Rural Development Should Be Promoted and
  Facilitated
• Communities have intrinsic value, not simply
  sites of production
• Places where people meet the challenges of daily
  life
• Places where personal identity is formed and
  affirmed
• Policy should promote retention and attraction of
  economic activity to these places, regardless of
  their economic inefficiency

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Social-demographic changes can either enhance or
diminish rural well being

• Challenges Will Not Become Opportunities Unless
• There is an informed public debate that results
  in a clear strategy for public and private
  actions and investments
• Social science can contribute to this debate by
  examining the historical roots and contemporary
  institutional structures and social processes
  that result in new opportunities on the one hand,
  and persisting disadvantage on the other

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THANK YOU
Population Change and Rural Society
edited by William Kandel
and David L. Brown