Energy Dialogue: Transport 20th September 2006

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Energy Dialogue Transport20th September 2006
Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Energy
Science Director Low Carbon Innovation
Centre School of Environmental Sciences, UEA
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Energy Dialogue Transport

• The Energy Review
• Historic Trends
• Technical Issues
• Fuel Efficiency
• New Fuels
• The Social Dimension
• How important is it?
• New Ideas
• Conclusions

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The Energy Review

• Just 3.2 of Review but Transport is 33.1 of
  energy demand
• Mostly what has been done
• Limited on future measures
• Has major omissions

but much with a positive spin.
Band G covers a broad range Base taxation
directly on carbon emission?
Data from Vehicle Emissions Database
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Historic Trends Personal Mobility

• Increase in personal mobility by 400 in 50
  years
• Mostly by car journeys
• Decline in bus travel (but trend now reversed )
• Nearly 50 increase in rail travel since
  privatisation
• represents a saving of 1.5 - 2 millions tonnes of
  CO2 per annum compared to road.

If this travel is replacing road travel!!
Will investment in public transport necessarily
reduce car journeys?
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Historic Trends Freight

• Distance each tonne has travelled has increased
  by
• 223 since 1960
• 20 since 1990
• Is this increase in movement of freight conducive
  to optimum economic growth, energy security, and
  carbon reduction?

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Private Motoring

• Components of Energy Demand in personal
  transport.
• Desire for mobility exceeded fuel efficiency
  improvements until 1990.
• Since 2000 energy consumption approximately in
  balance.
• Need to reduce further increases in mobility if
  CO2 is to be reduced significantly.

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Energy Efficiency Trends
Mean CO2 emissions voluntary targets will not
reach 140 g/km by 2008/09
Trends in car engine size
Consequence of increase in engine size is 2.9
Mtonnes extra of CO2. per annum.
Data from Transport Statistics 2005. Table 2005.
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Size of Car Engines in Market 2006
Percentage of models available compared to social
desire. -ve means less models on market
than people intending to buy.
Size of Choice according to survey
Data Vehicle Emission Database Department of
Transport Report Assessing
the Impact of Graduated Vehicle Excise Duty
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Fuel Consumption and Driver Behaviour

• Car 5 door Toyota Yaris
• Real performance is best at 50 mph. Saves up
  to 15 in fuel consumption cf 70 mph.
• Driver behaviour at low to moderate speeds can
  affect consumption by up to 10

Raising Awareness

• A small car emits equivalent of 1 party balloon
  every 60m.
• Driving just 1.6 miles emits as much carbon
  dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour.

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Technical Issues New Fuels

• Biofuels one part of the solution in near term
  with Fuel Cells in longer Term??

• Biofuel Options
• Biogas
• Bioethanol (5 or 85)
• Biodiesel (5 to 100)
• Vegetable oil
• Benefit
• gt Reduced CO2 and other emissions?

Depending on the pathway, biofuels can have a
major impact in reducing CO2 from
transport.However, other studies give
differing results and clarity and robustness of
methodolgy is needed including Real Road Tests
Overall CO2 emissions for different
fuels/production methods/power trains. Based on
CONCAWE/JRC/EUCAR results as adapted by Andy
Taylor
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Launch of BioEthanol in UK Norwich 15th March
2006
Planning is needed both for vehicles and
infrastructure
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Biodiesel Trials Banham Poultry 2004
First trials ever of fuel economy on the road
using biodiesel 8 Volvo FH12 Trucks 5, 20,
35, 50 biodiesel blends

• Despite reduced calorific value of biodiesel,
  
• fuel consumption remained the same

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Biodiesel Trials Banham Poultry
Driver behaviour

• Driver behaviour can affect performance
• Driver 2 uses 13.8 more fuel than driver 1

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Biodiesel Trials Banham Poultry

• Trials demonstrated other benefits compounding to
  60 saving
• Using 50 uvo biodiesel (40 saving)
• Advanced driver training (15 saving)
  cumulative 49
• Better route/load planning (10 saving)
  cumulative 54
• More fuel-efficient trucks (10 saving)
  cumulative 59
• 
  Total CO2 saving 59
• However
• Widespread availability of biodiesel at this
  concentration and new trucks will take time
• Other actions could be taken in shorter time
  scale
• Advanced driver training (15 saving)
• Better route/load planning (10 saving)
• Total CO2 saving 24

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Implications of Road Transport Fuel Obligation
for 2010

• In UK it is 5 substitution of biofuels by
  volume. Should it be 5 by energy?
• Will the buy out money necessarily end up
  promoting UK projects as with Renewable
  Obligation?
• Significant quantities of wheat are exported
  which could be used for bioethanol.
• Land Area required for 5 by volume
• 10000 12000 sq km (similar to NFU figure of
  1.2 Mha)
• or 4-5 of total land area of UK.
• area of Norfolk, Suffolk, and part of
  Cambridgeshire combined
• Opportunities for use of co-products- animal
  feed/power generation
• What happens if RTFO is increased further? Is
  land area requirement sustainable?

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Personal Mobility Does Public Transport reduce
car travel?
More use of car gt more total distance
travelled. Greater distance by train gt greater
use of car. Compare UK with Germany switch
UK car journeys to public transport at German
levels. saving by train
1.01 M tonnes
saving by bus 0.74 M
tonnes Reducing mobility desire 9.22
M tonnes
Suggests overriding issue is increased desire for
mobility rather than significant switching of
mode of transport.
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Investment in Public Transport

• Invest in Public Transport and get people out of
  their cars?
• Norwich Orbital bus scheme - 1.2 million
• Links railway station, hospital, University, City
  Centre with places near Ring Road.
• Not that popular yet. People still using their
  cars. Fare 1.65 return car park charges
  at hospital often considerably more.

B

• Smart Dynamic Bus Routing?
• Bus Service A gt B
• People at C not served
• Divert route via C
• increased journey times less popular with A gt B,
  particularly if people only occasionally get on
  at C.
• Dynamic Routing on demand
• extension of Trinidad Route Bus
  System

C

• Mobile phone SMS
• Intelligent bus stops

A
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Social Issues Lift SharingOur congested
roads are full of empty seats

• Car travel (2004 statistics)
• 679 billion passenger kilometres
• 398 billion vehicle kilometres
• Average occupancy 1.71.
• Raising this to an average of 2 would save
• 9.9 Mtonnes CO2.

Lift sharing/car pooling is very cost effective,
can help combat social exclusion, and enhance the
effectiveness of public transport. Increasing
average car occupancy is a very cheap way of
saving CO2 and reducing car use.
The UK leader in lift sharing, Liftshare.com is
based in Norfolk Aim CO2, Car Occupancy 2 52
million km shared each year.
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Social Issues First car share club in East
Anglia
However, some research of Cambridge scheme by
Prof. Crawford Brown suggests that much of use is
additional use not replacement use.
EDP, June 2, 2006
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Providing Public with more information

• Impact of carbon emissions
• Petrol receipt from Denmark

• Individuals often go for budget airlines for the
  cheap weekend break in Europe. Is this
  rational?
• e.g. Paris for weekend break

29th Sept - 2nd Oct 29th Sept - 2nd Oct 29th Sept - 2nd Oct 27th Oct - 30th Oct 27th Oct - 30th Oct 27th Oct - 30th Oct
BMIBaby EasyJet Eurostar BMIBaby EasyJet Eurostar
Return Tickets 95.00 86.18 124.00 9.00 56.58 79.00
Airport Taxes 55.20 14.50   55.20 14.50  
LondongtAirport 8.00 22.40   8.00 22.40  
CDG gt Gare du Nord 13.00 13.00   13.00 13.00  
Total 171.20 136.08 124.00 85.20 106.48 79.00
Total Time 0405 0415 0300 0405 0415 0300
Prices as per respective WEB Sites on 19th Sept.
2006
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Conclusions

• Significant opportunities exist for reducing CO2
  using biofuels.
• Government needs clearer statements on its
  commitments e.g.RTFO.
• Why not a requirement of 5 by energy content?
• Where will buy out money go?
• Will it promote industry in UK?
• Land requirements in post 2010 ideas from
  increased RTFO?
• Issues of fuel efficiency need addressing more
  effectively
• Reverse trend towards large engine cars
• Revisit the banding system and related taxation

• Social Dimension must not be overlooked.
• Better education/awareness - driver behaviour.
• Address issue of continual increases in desire
  for mobility.
• Could provide more rapid and cheaper method to
  reduce CO2?

"If you do not change direction, you may end up
where you are heading."
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist
philosopher