Daniel Rutledge, Landcare Research

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Development of Spatial Decision Support Systems
to Support Long-term Integrated Planning
Daniel Rutledge, Landcare Research Garry
McDonald, NZCEE Market Economics Michael
Cameron, University of Waikato Graham McBride,
NIWA Jacques Poot, University of Waikato Frank
Scrimgeour, University of Waikato Robbie Price,
Landcare Research Derek Phyn, Environment
Waikato Hedwig van Delden, RIKS Beat Huser,
Environment Waikato Bruce Small, AgResearch Liz
Wedderburn, AgResearch Tony Fenton, Alchemists Ltd
International Congress on Modelling
SimulationUniversity of Canterbury11 December
2007
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What do we want for the future?

• Depends on
• Whom you ask
• How far ahead we look
• (amongst other things)

Despite different individual opinions, values,
desires, utilities, increasingly we express a
desire to become sustainable.
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New Zealand Policy Context

• Resource Management Act 1991The purpose of
  this Act is to promote the sustainable management
  of natural and physical resources.(Section 3)
• Local Government Act 2002 this Act provides
  for local authorities to play a broad role in
  promoting the social, economic, environmental,
  and cultural well-being of their communities,
  taking a sustainable development approach.
  (Section 3)Prepare Long-Term Council Community
  Plans

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Environmental
Cultural
WELL-BEINGS
Economic
Social
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While laudable in principle,how do we become
sustainable? How do we plan for it? How do we
measure or monitor it? What will it take?
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What will it take?
The common theme throughout this strategy for
sustainable development is the need to integrate
economic and ecological considerations in
decision making. World Commission on
Environment and Development Our Common Future,
1987
The fundamental task in front of us over the
coming decades is to redesign our
socio-political-economic system in ways that
reintegrate the dependencies between people and
our underpinning ecological systems. Dr. J.
Morgan Williams, Former NZ Parliamentary
Commissioner for the Environment
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Environment Waikato Long-Term Council Community
Planning
Local authorities within the Waikato area have
made a commitment to work together to promote the
well-being of their communities, consistent with
the principles of sustainable development. This
commitment is in the form of a signed triennial
agreement. (Page 9) Our environmental
resources therefore need to be managed
sustainably, so that our regions prosperity and
growth can continue for the long-term. (Page 24)
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Choosing Regional Futures

• Develop and apply planning and communication
  tools to make informed choices for the future

Funded from 2006-2010 by NZ Foundation for
Research, Science Technology
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Waikato 2006

• Population 387,700 (Statistics NZ June 06 est.)
• Households 145,100(Statistics NZ June 06 est.)
• Land Cover
• Agriculture 55.2
• Natural 28.2
• Forestry 14.4
• Urban 1.1
• Other 1.0
• GDP 12 Billion(2003 GDP 3 annual growth)
• Ecological Footprint 9 ha
• Businesses 34,000

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Waikato 2026?

• Population 426,800 (39,100, Statistics NZ 2026
  med. est.)
• Households 169,400(24,300 Statistics NZ 2036
  med. est.)
• Land Cover
• Agriculture ?
• Natural ?
• Forestry ?
• Urban ?
• Other ?
• GDP 33 Billion(2003 GDP 3 annual growth)
• Ecological Footprint ?
• Businesses 50,000 ?

?
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CRF Objectives

• Process and communication focus
• ? linked to EW Community Outcomes LTCCP
  process
• ? explore plausible futures (scenarios)
• ? develop and trial a Deliberation Matrix
• 2) Building a spatial decision support system
• ? support the planning communication in
  Objective 1
• ? integrate economy, environment, society (
  culture?)
• ? track indicators across space and/or time
• ? explore trade-offs, win-wins, limits

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• Climate change impacts are bigger than expected
• The economy is weaker and slower growing than
  anticipated

• New Zealand has more people than expected
• Less money from government

GDP (profit)
Crowded House
Sleeping In
Natural Capital (resources)
mine
maintain
NatureCounts
Science Society
How we measure wealth in Waikato

• Science and scientists become more important for
  economic growth
• More things are known about what you as an
  individual are doing more things are known about
  what companies are doing

• New Zealanders discuss and understand the value
  of nature in a new way
• Economic growth comes from biological and life
  sciences

GPI (people)
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Objective 1 Deliberation Matrix
Strategies / Scenarios
Stakeholders
Values / Indicators
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Why an SDSS?

• Long-term integrated planning and resource
  management are examples of wicked or
  unstructured problems
• Characterised by
• Multiple actors
• Multiple values views
• Multiple outcomes possible
• High uncertainty

• An SDSS helps address unstructured problems
• Integrates society, economy, and environment
• Identifies links feedbacks
• Sets limits explicitly (e.g., only so much land,
  water, soil)
• Demonstrate importance of where in addition to
  what and how much
• Potential for aggregation/disaggregation

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Example ill-structured problem

• To be recognised as a District with
• A growing and vibrant community where cultural
  diversity is celebrated.
• A diverse, sustainable economy that provides full
  employment.
• A safe and healthy society, where people can
  achieve their goals.
• A pristine, sustainable environment. South
  Waikato District Council LTCCP, Page 15

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The Process
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The CRF SDSS should

• Focus on science and integration, not technology
• Address a range of issues in an integrated manner
• Be robust and relatively quick
• Consider space explicitly
• Be adaptable to other regions in NZ.

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CRF SDSS Considerations
Scope
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Scientific Considerations

• Interdisciplinary
• Systems approach
• Spatially-explicit
• Multi-scale
• 30-50 year temporal horizon

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SDSS Systems Approach
Society
Economy
Environment
Systems models track stocks flows over time
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Goods
Society
Economy
Labour
Wastes
Environment
Resources
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Technological Considerations

• Multiple data types sources
• Integration of different models with different
  origins
• Portability/adaptability
• Speed/ease of use under different settings (i.e.
  use in community engagement or only behind the
  scenes)

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RIKS GEONAMICA Framework

• Stand-alone application
• Systems models
• Multiple spatial temporal scales
• Model components from partners incorporated
  directly (no passing of data)
• History of development and use

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Organisational Considerations

• Regional District/City Councils
• Primary customer
• Want to use SDSS otherwise why bother
• Deliver sooner rather than later
• Portability
• Research
• Ability to address a range of issues
• Flexibility for simple to complex

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Project Structure
End User Networks
Advisory Group
Universite de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines
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SDSS Design by Triangulation
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Choosing Futures WaikatoCommunity Themes
Outcomes

• Sustainable Environment - The Waikato region
  values and protects its diverse, interconnected
  natural environments.
• Quality of Life - The Waikato region is a great
  place to live, providing the services and
  opportunities we need to live well.
• Sustainable Economy - The Waikato region balances
  a thriving economy with looking after its people,
  places and environment.
• Culture Identify - The Waikato region
  identifies with - and values - its land, air
  rivers and waterways, mountains, flora, fauna and
  its people.
• Participation Equity - The Waikato region
  builds strong informed communities and has a
  culture that encourages people and communities to
  play their part.

Too difficult to interpret focused on set of 75
core MARCO indicators
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Qualitative Scenarios Key Drivers

• World
• Climate Change increased instability, extremes,
  and spatial variation
• Population migration trends, potential climate
  refugees
• Market changes number, size, access, consumer
  preferences, locations
• Globalisation RD investment
• New Zealand
• Population older, increasing proportion of
  Maori, Pasifika, and Asians decreasing
  proportion of Pakehas/Europeans
• Lifestyles changing expectations, influence of
  technology
• Economy agricultural intensification, new
  metrics, bio-economy
• Energy availability, affordability, mix of
  renewable/non-renewable
• Housing affordability, increasingly urban
  culture
• Waikato Region
• Land use intensification change trends
  management and influence on intensity of
  flooding, erosion, slips
• Auckland urbanisation pressures
• Economy agricultural intensification
• Governance continued devolution versus greater
  central authority

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4 Comparison Regions

• Auckland
• 1/3 of NZ population
• Highly urban and urban expansion affects Waikato
  to the south
• Large source of internal tourism for the Waikato
• Bay of Plenty
• Proximity to Waikato
• One major urban centre (Tauranga)
• Focused more on horticultural than pastoral
• Horizons (Wanganui-Manawatu)
• Similar major land uses (agricultural, forestry)
• One major urban centre (Palmerston North)
• Canterbury
• Similar major land uses (agricultural, forestry),
  increasing dairying
• One major urban centre (Christchurch)
• Water supply/allocation an issue

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Draft SDSS System Design
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3 Examples Based on the SDSS Prototype
Dairy Expansion
Dairy Decline
Village Life
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SDSS Goodness of Fit
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What We Want to Achieve

• Planning tools that inform communities
• Tools expose links and trade-offs
• Councils use these tools

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Conclusions (so far)

• Successful development requires active and
  on-going organisational commitment
• Tension exists between design flexibility and
  prioritisation
• Spatially-explicit systems model approach should
  help unite different models approaches
• Technical integration offers adaptive potential
  simplifies end-use but generates additional
  overheads and requires willingness of researchers
  to relinquish some control.

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Thank you!
Universite de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines