Research Needs for AMY 20082009:

1
Research Needs for AMY 2008-2009 CLIVAR/AAMP
perspective
Bin Wang
Second AMY08 International Workshop 9-3-4 2007,
Bali
Acknowledgements CLIVAR/AAMP
2
CLIVAR/A-AMP

• Co-Chair
• Bin Wang and Harry Hendon
• Cobin Fu, In-Sik Kang,
• Jay McCreary, Holger Meinke,
• Rajeevan, Takehiko Satomura, Andrews
  Schiller, Julia Slingo, Ken Sperber, Peter
  Webster

3
Gaps First Pan-WCRP workshop

• Global Phenomena
• diurnal cycle
• annual cycle,
• intraseasonal oscillation,
• atmospheric moisture distribution and transport
• aerosol-monsoon-cloud interaction
• Model processes surface fluxes, planetary
  boundary layer and cloud.
• Land surface better observations of land surface
  conditions, roles of atmosphere-land coupling in
  developing monsoon precipitation,
• Ocean improve (and sustain) observations
  importance of air-sea interaction and ocean
  processes in modeling of ISO and ENSO-monsoon
  relationship
• Regional foci processes over the Maritime
  Continent, Pacific cold tongue and western
  boundary currents, and Indonesian through flow.

4
Year of coordinated Observing, modeling and
ForecastingAddressing the Challenge of
Organized Tropical Convection
This proposed activity arose out of a
recommendation by the THORPEX/WCRP/ICTP Workshop
on Organisation and Maintenance of Tropical
Convection and the MJO, held in Trieste in March
2006. It was presented at the WCRP/CLIVAR SSG
Meeting in Buenos Aires in April 2006. Based
on positive feedback from the WCRP Director and
the SSG, the SSG asked that the proposal be
developed in cooperation with THORPEX, GEWEX,
CEOP, AAMP, WOAP, WMP, etc. If implemented in
2008, this initiative could be a WCRP
contribution to the UN Year of Planet Earth and
compliment IPY.
5
Key Issues AAMP is addressing

• What determines the structure and dynamics of the
  annual cycle (AC) and diurnal cycle (DC) of the
  coupled atmosphere-ocean-land system? How to
  remedy the major weaknesses of climate models in
  simulation of the AC and DC?
• How predictable is the monsoon interannual
  variability (IAV)? How to improve the dynamic
  monsoon seasonal predictions?
• What cause monsoon Intraseasonal Variability
  (ISV)? How to overcome the major challenges to
  modeling and predict monsoon ISV?
• What are the major modes of interdecadal
  variation of the monsoon system?
• How and why will monsoon system change in a
  global warming environment?
• What is priority for future field and modeling
  studies and for improving observing and modeling
  strategy of the monsoon system?

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Modeling/prediction of Global Monsoon Domain
Number of Model
The monsoon precipitation index (shaded) and
monsoon domain (contoured) captured by (a) CMAP
and (b) the one-month lead MME prediction. (c)
The number of model which simulates MPI over than
0.5 at each grid point.
7
Performance of MMEs in Hindcast Global
Precipitation
Temporal Correlation Skill of Precipitation
8
Asian-Australian Monsoon Predictability
S-EOF of Seasonal Mean Precipitation Anomalies
The First Mode 30
The Second Mode 13
9
Hot places of land surface feedback
Koster et al. 2004
10
Need to understand Multi-Scale Interrelation In
Monsoon ISO
Slingo 2006 THORPEX/WCRP Workshop report
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Global Monsoon Changes (1948-2004)
Wang and Ding 2006, GRL
Annual Mean Precipitation
In the last 56 years global land monsoon shows a
weakening trend. However, in the last 25 years,
Oceanic monsoon rainfall increases while land
monsoon unchanged.
12
Monsoon Research Needs

• Observation
• Modeling
• Prediction
• Future changes

13
Observation

• Field campaign for observing specific phenomena
  e.g., organization of convection, multi-scale
  structure of ISV. (Monsoon trough and Maritime
  Continent)
• Supper station for validating and improving
  models
• Provide ground truth for calibrating Satellite
  measurements.
• Promote integrated usage of satellite
  observations to study , e.g., 3-D structure and
  multi-scale interaction in ISV.
• Improve long-term monitoring network in tropical
  IO-WP and maritime Asia.
• Improve and develop new reanalysis datasets that
  use new satellite observations, e.g., land data
  assimilation, ocean data assimilation.

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Modeling

• Design monsoon metrics for assessing model
  performance and identify key modeling issues.
  Provide one-stop data source for cross-panel use.
  
• Develop effective strategy for improving model
  Physics.
• Determine directions for developing next
  generation climate models. High resolution
  modeling
• Encouraging use of forecast type experiments to
  evaluate models and study climate sensitivities.
• Use large-domain CR or CSR simulation to provide
  surrogate data for studying convective
  organization, and mulit-scale interaction.

15
Prediction

• Better understand physical basis for seasonal
  prediction and ways to predict uncertainties of
  the prediction.
• Improve representation of slow coupled physics.
• Improve initialization scheme and initial
  conditions in ocean and land surface.
• Develop new strategy and methodology for
  sub-seasonal monsoon prediction.
• Design metrics for objective, quantitative
  assessing predictability and prediction skill.
  Improve MME prediction system.

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Assess Future Changes

• Coordinate IPCC AR4 monsoon assessment to address
  how and why AA-M system will change in a global
  climate change environment.
• Role of the monsoon-aerosol interaction and land
  use in future monsoon change.
• Use MME approach to study the sensitivity of the
  monsoon to external and anthropogenic climate
  forcing.
• Coordinate MME experiments to investigate
  sub-seasonal to interannual factors that
  influence extreme events, such as TC.
• Determine coherent structure and dynamics of the
  global monsoon system on Dec/Cen time scales and
  their linkage to ocean.

17
Modeling/Prediction (AAMP)

• Coordinate CGCM/RCM Process study on MJO/ MISO
  (MC-SEA) AAMP/MAHASRI, CIMS
• Develop Multi-model ensemble Regional Climate
  prediction experiment with CGCM, RCM, GLACE in
  collaboration with MAHASRI, APCC, and MAIRS to
  determine impacts of the land surface data
  assimilation, land surface processes, and
  land-atmosphere interaction on monsoon seasonal
  prediction
• Coordinated experiment on high resolution climate
  model simulation of hurricane/Typhoon activity.
  (NASA/GMAO Sieg Schubert)

18
Thanks
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AAMP-MAHASRI Coordinated GCM/RCM Process study
onMonsoon ISO and onset (SEAMC)

• Integration of observation and modelling,
  Meteorology and Hydrology
• Domain MCSEA (70-150, 15S-40N)a critical
  region for monsoon ISO influence
• Phenomenon and Issues ISO, and its interaction
  with diurnal cycle, meso-scale and synoptic scale
  regulation. Onset of monsoon (summer and winter)
  impacts of Tibetan Plateau land surface processes
• Design Driving field, Output, validation
  strategy and Data,
• Participating model groups both AGCM and RCM,
  each 4-5

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MME Downscaling Seasonal Prediction Experiment

• Develop effective strategy and methodology for
  RCM downscaling
• Assess the added values of RCM MME downscaling
  
• Determine the predictability of monsoon
  precipitation
• Large scale driving 10 CGCM from DEMETER and
  APCC/CliPAS models