Seamless Modeling and Prediction

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Seamless Modeling and Prediction
Jim Hurrell Climate and Global Dynamics
Division, NCAR
BASC/CRC Briefing 17 May 2007
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Background
Fundamental advancements in weather and climate
prediction require improved understanding and
simulation of the complex, multiscale
interactions intrinsic to the coupled system
Courtesy of Julia Slingo
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Background
Utilizing increased computer power
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Background

• Growing recognition of the seamless prediction
• paradigm (e.g., COPES 2005)
• Discussion (spring 2006) among major US modeling
  
• centers (led by Jay Fein)
• Ad Hoc panel put together to
• Describe the seamless prediction paradigm
• Identify major research challenges and
  opportunities
• Draft a white paper as a starting point for a
  broader,
• community discussion of the issues

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White Paper

• August 2006
• Introduction
• Seamless Prediction Paradigm
• Improving climate models
• Upscaling research
• Value of testing models across timescales
• Prediction across scales
• Effect of initial conditions
• Effect of systematic errors
• Predictability
• What predictions should be attempted?
• Techniques
• Verification
• Concluding remarks

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Improving Climate Models
Upscaling Research
Hot Spots STEB Regions
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SST August 2000
1POP Ocean
1/10ROMS nested
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White Paper

• August 2006
• Introduction
• Seamless Prediction Paradigm
• Improving climate models
• Upscaling research
• Value of testing models across timescales
• Prediction across scales
• Effect of initial conditions
• Effect of systematic errors
• Predictability
• What predictions should be attempted?
• Techniques
• Verification
• Concluding remarks

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Decadal Predictability
Courtesy of Tom Delworth
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Thank You!