By: Ambassador J. Oerstroem Moeller,

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Meeting Friday October 28, 2005 at University of
Copenhagen
Internationalisation at home - The future of the
University of Copenhagen in the global
knowledge society.Topic The global market for
higher education an Asian perspective.

• By Ambassador J. Oerstroem Moeller,
• Visiting Senior Research Fellow at Institute for
  Southeast Asian studes (ISEAS), Singapore
• Adjunct professor at Copenhagen Business School.
• www.denmark.com.sg/jom.htm

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Prelude.The old poodle, the Leopard, the
Monkey.Key messages - Economic and
technological power. Shift from North America to
Asia.- (Higher) education. Exponential demand.
Main future industry.- The future University.
Multinational company, alliances, M A.
Breaking up.- How does it all link together.-
Globalisation. We take it for granted - but
suppose it isn't.
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a) The economic gravity moves from goods to the
immaterial economy service, entertainment,
audio-visual world, infocom, dream society,
education.b) Consumption patterns changes from
price and cost to values, set of values, ethics,
preferences do we share the same basic
attitude.c) Consumers cease to be just that.
Changes into an asset base for the enterprise
taking a part, an interest, engage themselves in
the evolution of the enterprise, congruous set of
values. They become capital value to be listed on
the asset side of the balance sheet.
I. Global trends controlling higher education.
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d) Staff becomes dichotomised. A transfer market
for the best and the brightest (greed). A wage
squeeze for the water boy (survive if you can).
In short Enterprise-staff becomes
Economics/Costs. Earn the money to keep the best
brains put the wage squeeze/entrenchment on
everybody else so they scream. e) Political
system. OUT ? National perspective consensus
traditional welfare take care of each
individual. IN ? International perspective
values market opportunities for each
individual. Bush/Blair continuation of
Reagan/Thatcher or the crowning touch that augurs
a new political cycle?
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Keywords. Follow the money trail from US to
China and India.a) Measured in official
exchange rates Chinas share of global GNP is
about 3, India about 1,4. BUT PPP gives about
13 respectively about 7. China India equals
80 of US GNP. Add in Japan, Korea and Southeast
Asia and you get to 125.b) China is the
factory of the world, price setter for industrial
goods and offer technology. PPP second largest
economy, largest recipient of Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI). India is the service center
for the world, price setter for service goods and
offers solutions. Fourth largest economy (PPP).
II) Economic shift.
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c) The middle class will be decisive.China.
Number of urban households annual income ?
USdollars 5.000 ? 17,4 in 2005 ? 90 in 2014.
Annual increase 24. Few people realises what
global cities signifies. Trendsetters live in
global cities. At ease inside this cultural
framework. The Hubconcept. Branding, Shanghai,
Beijing, Guangzhou-Hong Kong-Macau, Mumbai,
Kolkatta, may be Tokyo. Subhubs Bangkok, Saigon,
Singapore-Johore, Sydney. Many more.
Centre-Periphery-Hinterland.
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Keywords. Culture?Technology. Total
communication? everywhere, everybody, anything.
Pictures, symbols, text, talk ? Syme.
Nomads.China 402 mio subscribers on mobile
phones end 2005. Fixed line 360 mio. About 103
mio on internet. Broadband user 2005 US 39 mio,
China 34 mio. Prognosis for 2007. China 57 mio
US 54 mio. SMS China 6 billion in ONE DAY! New
language emerges.India 60 million subscribers
on mobile phones. 2 million more every
month.Prognoses 2010. China globally number one
PCs 178 mio. India 80 mio.Cernet2, IPv6. 3G
technology.EU-Commission forecast. About 2010
China surpasses EU ? RD as per cent of GNP.
III. Technological breakthroughs.
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Keywords. Exponential rise in demand. Primarily
from Asia. Market forces.a) Economic
development (rising incomes, middle class)
combined with the Asian cultural tradition (e.g.
Confucianism) stimulates demand almost
enormously. Foreign students in English
language universities are approx 1 million.
Forecast says 2,6 mio in 2020. 56 of all foreign
students from Asia. Forecast for 2020 says 75.
IV. Education.
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b) US after September 11, 2001 became secluded.
Looks upon the outside world as a threat. Until
now US has profited from an open attitude. For
the last three academic years number of foreign
students in US has fallen between 6 and 10
compared to a rising number the years before.
Latest academic year a fall of 8 from China and
4 from India. In year 2000 6.250 Indonesian
students in US. Last year 1.333.The Japanese
system is inward looking. Language and culture.
Problem as the number of students are falling.
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c) New suppliers. UK, Australia, New Zealand. An
example Students from India to Australia 2.800
in 2001-2002 but 9.000 in current academic year.
Malaysia (40.000 to 100.000 plan or
pipedream?)The numbers does it matter? The
international market for higher education is
estimated to 2.200 billion USdollar more than
ten times Denmarks GNP. Education is New
Zealands number 4 industry. Australia gets 25
billion DKK from education. 1/3 of Nobel prizes
to US to immigrants.
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d) According to anecdotal evidence many small and
medium sized American universities faces
financial difficulties. Among other things
because of the short fall of foreign students
oiling the American universities.Illustration.
One of the fastest growing business with 20.000
customers and a revenue of 2 billion USdollars is
Indian tutors helping American high schools
students with their math. Website just in case
www.cbseguess.com/tutors/default.asp
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V. The Universities.Keywords. Market again!
Benchmark. Alliances. Multinational company. M
A. Individual institutes cast off the skin and go
themselves.One ring to rule them all James
Bond! George Patton! a) Universities do not any
longer get a nice big sack of money from Father
Christmas to spend how they like. They must be
able to find the finance themselves. Sell their
products. Concentration. Nothing succeeds like
success, nothing fails like failures.Starallianc
es. To benchmark, to take control of the market,
to force others to follow and adapt after having
made the breakthrough ourselves. The newest one
consists of ten universities. Copenhagen
University among them. BRAVO.
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b) Multinational company. Strategic alliances.
Market share. 1) Establishing yourself abroad.
Singapore Two universities make campus there.
China Several universities moving in. 2)
Attract students to our campus.Intellectual
multinational company attracting students to its
home campus, exporting its structures to other
countries. Next step. Mergers Acquisitions.
Not really seen yet but it will come. University
A buys part of or the whole of university B. The
same pattern as for traditional multinational
company (do it better, sell off the assets,
select the golden egg).
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• c) Staralliances between institutes inside the
  universities running against the traditional
  structure of the university. The institutes able
  to sell products will not be willing to finance
  the institutes not being able to do so.
• d) Off shoring. Multinational companies (e.g
  Boeing, Dupont) ask for bidders to solve their R
  D. Not any longer going automatically to R D
  unit of the company itself. Everybody can supply
  a bid. More than 100 labs in Bangalore base their
  activities on this kind of off shoring. Savings
  and a higher much higher degree of imagination
  for the enterprise. Illustration. Boeing 7E7
  (the dreamliner) wings and fuselage.
  Medtronics.Take a look at www.innocentive.com.
• e) The unanswered question. The university using
  the net?

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VI. What links it all together.

• Keywords. Values and economics (costs, savings)
  in new roles.
• Virtual structures. Identity becomes more fluid.
  Join those with identical values regardless of
  where they live.
• Virtual enterprise, virtual university,
  supranational. Controlled by

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• Values. Students link to the university having
  congruous values as the customer links to an
  enterprise having congruous values. You look for
  those driving in the same lane.
• Capital. Amount of money to keep the talent
  determines whether you are in champions league to
  compete on ideas or in division 4 competing on
  price and costs.
• Costs. If compete on costs ruthless battle to
  suppress wages. Outsourcing.
• Enterprises and universities will break up from
  inside because of off shoring and out sourcing.
• The basic parameters become less national, more
  international. Loyalty, identity, solidarity out
  of geographical straitjacket and traditional
  structures. Values.
• Look at USA religion.
• Look at El Qaeda.

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VII. Globalisation.

• Keyword. Globalisation primarily almost
  exclusively an economic, technological
  logistically phenomenon. Not having made its mark
  on our mentality..
• a) Globalisation undoubtedly produces a higher
  growth than any other model. Most people accept
  to give up some of their identity to get a share
  of that higher growth.What happens if or when
  the growth starts to splutter and/or inequality
  deepens so that a rising number of people do not
  get a lift in their living standard. We sold our
  soul for..yes for what?All figures suggest
  that inequality is rising. My forecast is that
  after almost 15 years as a golden age, growth
  will start to fall at least in the US.

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• b) What are the danger signals
• Elite versus majority of population.
• Politicians starting to ask could another model
  works as well?
• People starting to ask the same question (where
  is the beef for us?)
• Rich and well educated or poor and poorly
  educated. Latest anecdotal evidence from US.

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• c) We have taken globalisation for granted
  because it has been the only model and an
  enormously successful one since 1945. But recent
  events e.g. France in Europe, the stronger
  nationalism in the US and in Japan (Japan versus
  China) shows that this is not the case.
• Todays shiver
• Globalisation at a climax in 1890s. Global
  depression in the 1930s.
• War unthinkable, written around 1900. World War I
  starts in 1914.
• Civilised humanity, what the historian Barbara
  Tuchman called The Proud Tower around 1900.
  Interwar period evil ideologies worshipped mass
  murder and practised it.

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• d) What are the alternatives?
• Let us hope that NOIC will not carry the
  day. That our politicians are wise enough to
  detect danger signals (Those who understand the
  language of the birds can become minister).

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• Who are we?
• J. Ørstrøm Møller
• www.oerstroemmoeller.com