CO2 emissions and climate change

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CO2 emissions and climate change Corinne Le
Quéré University of East Anglia British Antarctic
Survey
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C
O
O
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CO2 emissions and climate change
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CO2 emissions
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(billion)
world population

time (y)
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(billion)
world population

time (y)
projections Lutz et al. IIASA 2007
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CO2 emissions (PgC/y)
time (y)
data. G. Marland, CDIAC
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Raupach et al. Canadell et al. PNAS 2007
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( )
( )
F fossil fuel emissions
F F
E
G
P
E energy consumption
E
G
P
G gross world product
P population
per capita wealth
fossil fuel intensity
Raupach, Canadell and Le Quéré, BGD 2008
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F P g h
per capita wealth
fossil fuel intensity
Growth rates ( per year)
?F ? P ? g ?h
F P g h
Raupach, Canadell and Le Quéré, BGD 2008
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F P g h
per capita wealth
fossil fuel intensity
Growth rates ( per year)
Raupach, Canadell and Le Quéré, BGD 2008
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climate change
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global temperature

• Highlights
• 2007 was 8th warmest year on record
• 12 of the 13 warmest years on record occurred
  since 1995

data source Climatic Research Unit
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minimum Arctic sea ice extent
2008
2007
Stroeve et al. GRL 2007
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changes in the earths climate system
energy
water
winds
observed warming trend 1979-2005
Smith and Reynolds 2005 and IPCC 2007
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CO2
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2000-2005 CO2 budget (GtC/y)
atmosphere
4.2
fossil fuel emissions
land use change
land sink
7.2
1.5
2.3
ocean sink
2.2
geological reservoirs
Canadell et al. 2007
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Guy Mingley and Barney Kgope (SANBI), William
Bond (UCT)
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open savanna South Africa
1955
1998
Guy Mingley (SANBI)
Photo Timm Hoffmann , IPC, UCT
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vegetation coverage, last glaciation
Harrison Prentice, 2003
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effect of the 2003 heat wave on the Carbon cycle
Ciais et al., Nature 2005
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2000-2005 CO2 budget (GtC/y)
atmosphere
4.2
fossil fuel emissions
land use change
land sink
7.2
1.5
2.3
ocean sink
2.2
geological reservoirs
Canadell et al. 2007
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anthropogenic carbon inventory
1750-1994
Sabine et al., 2004
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direct measurement of air trapped in ice
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atmospheric CO2 (ppm)
1850
280
180

650 thousand years
Siegenthaler et al. 2006
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atmospheric CO2 (ppm)
2008
385
1958
1850
280
180

650 thousand years
Siegenthaler et al. 2006
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Alert (Canada)
Mauna Loa observatory (Hawaii)
Palmer (Antarctica)
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Alert (Canada)
atmospheric CO2
Palmer (Antarctica)
time (y)
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Alert (Canada)
atmospheric CO2
Palmer (Antarctica)
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Atmospheric Inverse Model
Cmeasured ? Cmodeled Af co
model and approach Christian Rödenbeck
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change in Southern Ocean CO2 sink
expected trend
CO2 sink (PgC/y)
Le Quéré et al. 2007
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trend in oceanic pCO2 1981-2007 (uatm/y)
2.8
1.6
0.4
data from Takahashi et al., DSR (2008) Feely et
al., 2006, Schuster and Watson, 2007, Takahashi
et al., 2006 longest data series from Richard
Feely, Cathy E. Cosca, Rik Wanninkhof, David W.
Chipman, Colm Sweeney, Andrew Watson, Dorothee C.
E. Bakker, Ute Schuster, H. Yoshikawa-Inoue,
Masao Ishii and T. Modorikawa, Y. Nojiri, Jon
Olafsson, C. S. Wong., Arne Kroetzinger, Bronte
Tilbrook, Truls Johannessen and Are Olsen.
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trend in oceanic pCO2 1981-2007 (uatm/y)
2.8
1.6
0.4
data from Takahashi et al., DSR (2008) Feely et
al., 2006, Schuster and Watson, 2007, Takahashi
et al., 2006 longest data series from Richard
Feely, Cathy E. Cosca, Rik Wanninkhof, David W.
Chipman, Colm Sweeney, Andrew Watson, Dorothee C.
E. Bakker, Ute Schuster, H. Yoshikawa-Inoue,
Masao Ishii and T. Modorikawa, Y. Nojiri, Jon
Olafsson, C. S. Wong., Arne Kroetzinger, Bronte
Tilbrook, Truls Johannessen and Are Olsen.
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Changes in CO2 sink quantified with a model

• NEMO General Circulation model
• 1.5ox2o resolution
• 31 vertical levels
• calculated vertical mixing
• NCEP daily forcing

• PISCES-T ecosystem model
• 2 phyto, 2 zoo., 2 particles
• Fe, P, and Si
• (Buitenhuis et al., GBC 2006)

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change in Global Ocean CO2 sink
expected trend
CO2 sink (PgC/y)
model
Time (y)
Le Quéré, Takahashi, Buitenhuis, Rödenbeck
Sutherland, in prep.
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Trend in ocean CO2 sink (PgC/y per decade)
40 of recent trends in ocean CO2 sink
attributed to human activities
Le Quéré, Takahashi, Buitenhuis, Rödenbeck
Sutherland, in prep.
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the Airborne Fraction ?atm CO2 CO2 emissions (FF
Land Use)
Airborne fraction
(p 0.89)
1960 1970 1980 1990
2000
time
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
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warming of the climate system is unequivocal
as is now evident from observations of increases
in global average air and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
global average sea level
IPCC 2007
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marine ecosystems
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atmosphere
CO2
chemical reactions

ocean
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ocean color from SeaWiFS satellite
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biological activity
these respond to changes in temperature
these respond to ocean acidification
these are affected by fisheries and habitat
changes. They sustain the higher marine organisms

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ocean biodiversity (phytoplankton groups from
PHYSAT)
Alvain et al. 2005
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Plankton functional types from the PlankTOM10
model
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(billion)
world population

time (y)
projections Lutz et al. IIASA 2007
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(billion)

world population
time (y)
projections Lutz et al. IIASA 2007