Common Procedures

1

• Common Procedures
• For Small Area Forecasting
• Justin Clarke, Arlington County
• Mubarika Shah, Fairfax County
• Greg Goodwin, COG Staff
• Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
• Cooperative Forecasting and Data Subcommittee
• Small Area Task Force
• May 4, 2004

2
Participants

• Information and materials included in this
  presentation were prepared by other members of
  the Small Area Task Force
• Mayra Bayonet, City of Rockville
• Robert Beasley, District of Columbia
• Gary Fuller, City of Falls Church
• Philip Taylor, Prince George's County - M-NCPPC
• Jim Wasilak, City of Rockville

3
Why are we doing this?

• Educational Process
• Preparation for the Round 7 Technical Report
• Small Area (TAZ) Forecasting consistency among
  the member jurisdictions

4
How do we do it?

• Questions Asked
• List of Common Items
• Special session of Round Table Discussion
• Compilation and refinement

5
Findings/StrengthsTime Frame

• Base Year Date
• Population and Households April 1, 2000
• Employment March 2000 (End of First Quarter)
• Year 2000 average sometimes necessary based on
  source data
• Extent of Forecasts
• Data prepared in 5 year increments for 30 years
  from Base Year
• For Round 7 2000 to 2030

6
Findings/StrengthsArea Systems (Geography)

• Jurisdictional totals
• COG Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ)
• using the 2191 Zone or Expanded Cordon
  Transportation Planning Board (TPB) zone system
• Typical procedures to obtain TAZ level data
• Aggregation of TAZ data to a jurisdictional total
• Translation of planning area or Census geography
  data to TAZ level figures
• Disaggregate a total figure down to TAZ
  allotments

7
Next Steps

• Employment
• Standardize base month (3/00, 3/05, 3/10, 3/15)
• Standardize allocation of sectors with COG
  employment categories (Office, Retail,
  Industrial)
• Establish grouping of sectors to respond to
  Regional Reports and Econometric Model
• Provide an allocation guide consisting of a list
  of sub categories of employment types such as
  home based employment
• Determine how to control the double counting of
  jobs at the TAZ level
• (continued)

8
Next Steps (Continued)

• Other Items
• Establish a self check control method for long
  term forecasts such as a Top Down Methodology
• Decide when to use 2005 as a Base Year (Round
  7.1, 8?)
• Review 2191 geography limitations and improve
  boundary locations where possible
• Coordinate with appropriate COG staff and TPB
  Technical Committee
• Alternative Scenarios review need for
  jurisdictional level scenarios

9
Feedback from committee

• Present Draft Report/Findings to the Cooperative
  Forecasting and Data Subcommittee - May Meeting
• Receive written/oral comments from other members
  of the committee by the June Meeting
• Incorporate new comments into final report
  ready for distribution at the July meeting