Navy

1
Navy NOAA Joint Ocean and Coastal Modeling and
Forecasting

• Marie Colton
• National Ocean Service
• 2 October 2006

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Outline

• Goals and Objectives
• Purpose
• Issue
• Background
• Intersecting Issues
• Summary
• Recommendations

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Overarching Goals and Objectives

• Goal A global perspective on oceans and coasts
  through shared development and implementation of
  a national capability in operational ocean and
  coastal modeling and forecasting
• Objectives
• Coordination of internal, external, and
  interagency communications and agreements
• Definition of NOAA and Navy ocean and coastal
  modeling and forecasting strategy
• Identification of and action along Navy/NOAA
  intersections

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Purpose

• Explicit definition of Navy and NOAA commitments
  for partnership in community modeling and
  forecasting
• Status of activities to identify actions and
  intersections
• Agency and joint strategies and way forward
• Solicit direct agency feedback to ensure
  continuity of effort and visibility
• NOAA AAs of cognizant offices
• Navy CNO/CNMOC (McGee), Oceanographer, SPAWAR,
  CNR ONR, NRL

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Issue

• Ocean/Coastal Community Modeling Requirements
  Definition Navy/NOAA
• Missions remain separate
• Requirement Overlaps identified for effectiveness
• Common approaches developed
• Articulate and align capabilities to increase
  technical support for Navy and NOAA ocean/coastal
  forecasting
• Develop system of consistent compatible ocean
  models that pass information and scale from
  global to regional to very local
• Specific projects to quickly advance cooperation
  and coordination process

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Issue

• Who is involved
• 4 NOAA Line Offices (NESDIS, NOS, NWS/NCEP, OAR)
• 5 Navy Offices (CNMOC, FNMOC, NAVO, ONR, NRL)
• What is involved
• Ocean Modeling Action Plan (NOAA SAB)
• Tri-Agency Atmospheric Modeling Partnership
  (National Unified Operational Prediction
  Capability)
• IOOS Development Plan
• Navy/NOAA Memorandum of Agreement (2004-2014)
• NOAA Environmental Modeling Program

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Background

• Navy AMOP Meetings
• September 2005 (Naval Observatory), February 2006
  (Pearl Harbor), September 2006 (Stennis Space
  Center)
• March 29, 2006 Joint Planning Session, NOAA
  Headquarters, Silver Spring
• June 13-14, 2006 Joint Workshop, Stennis Space
  Center

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Intersecting Issue 1Operational Ocean Modeling
and Forecasting

• Key Activities
• Data availability, access, and distribution
• Concept of operations (CONOPS)
• Shared development environment
• Shared products and services

• Key Approaches
• Demonstration project align satellite altimetry
  observing requirements
• Portal for ocean modeling outputs (NCDC)
• Operational backup and data assimilation
• Earth System Modeling Framework

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Developing NOAA Strategy
Operations
Research
Products and Services
Phenomena of Interest
Observing Systems
ENSO Update
Time
Time
HAB Bulletin
Giant Bluefin Tuna
Space
Space
Operational Ocean and Coastal Forecast
Guidance NOS, NWS Ops
Observations OSSE IOOS, NESDIS, OAR, JCSDA
Data Assimilation OSE NESDIS, NWS, OAR, JCSDA
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Current NOAA Infrastructure for Modeling and
Forecasting
OBSERVATIONS
Satellite
In situ
OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION
COASTAL OCEAN BOUNDARY SPECIFICATION
CLIMATE FORECAST
OCEAN FORECAST
MODEL ATTRIBUTES Global to Regional Scale
MODEL ATTRIBUTES Global to Regional Scale
MODEL ATTRIBUTES Regional to Local Scale Rapidly
Relocatable
Shared history, coding, and data processing
OPERATIONAL OCEAN FORECASTS
Climate Forecast System
Real-Time Ocean Forecast System
Coastal Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System
http//tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/models.html
http//cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/
http//polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/
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Intersecting Issue 2Ocean Model and Forecast
Development

• Key Activities
• Standardization of models
• Data assimilation
• Shared development environment
• Model validation and evaluation

• Key Approaches
• Model characterization HYCOM, ADCIRC, ROMS, WW3,
  SWAN, Tides, PC Tides
• Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
• Model test beds and performance metrics
• User/developer groups

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Intersecting Issue 3Technologies and Standards

• Key Activities
• Source code
• Standard tools and utilities
• Standard inputs
• Standard outputs

• Key Approaches
• Common configuration management
• Software and information technologies
• Databases
• Static inputs and forcing functions
• Data exchange formats
• ESMF

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Intersecting Issue 4Transition Methodology

• Key Activities
• Recommend metrics for common validation and
  intercomparison of models
• Transition plans development to operations
• Coordinate system development and transition

• Key Approaches
• Follow-on workshops
• Mapping across Navy and NOAA transition plans
• NOAA Transition Board
• Navy Rapid Transition Process
• Technical readiness levels

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Define Current Infrastructure for Common Modeling
and Forecasting
Hardware Software Config. Management NOAA Capabilities Navy Capabilities Programs
HYCOM Working group
ADCIRC Working group
WW3 Working group (Planned)
GFDL Models
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Intersecting Issue 5Coordination and Program

• Ensure chains of command are informed and
  continue to support the process
• Maintain a steady flow of results and adjust
  coordination accordingly
• Agreements for shared products or services or
  proposed joint efforts

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Recommendations

• Internal Establish NOAA Administrative
  Ocean/Coastal Modeling Oversight Panel
• Dialogue on ocean model/forecast requirements
• Resource support for ocean modeling working
  groups
• Coordination among appropriate NOAA goals and
  programs
• Oversight on end-to-end ocean/coastal forecasting
  systems
• Joint Articulate and align Navy and NOAA
  requirements and approaches
• Complete individual and joint Navy-NOAA
  ocean/coastal forecasting CONOPS
• Standardization of models (HYCOM, ADCIRC, WW3,
  ROM)
• Data Assimilation (expand JCSDA to include
  ocean/coastal activities)
• Development of technical approaches to common
  issues
• Joint high-level meeting for agency direction to
  ensure continuity of effort and visibility
• Formalize NOAA and Navy ocean forecasting
  activities (annexes to MOA, Tri-Agency)
• Develop communications plan for joint statement
  on Navy-NOAA community ocean modeling effort
• External Integrate with external partner
  strategies
• Provide guidance to IOOS Modeling and Analysis
  Steering Team, sponsor community modeling
  workshops
• Ocean Research Priorities Plan
• ESMF

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Alternative 1

• Ad hoc coordination with NOAA matrix and Navy
• Pros
• No funds needed
• No obligations necessary (flexible)
• Cons
• Doesnt meet urgency of need for operational
  ocean and coastal modeling and forecasting
• Proliferation of options to solve problems
  independently
• Technical issues not solved efficiently
• One NOAA common voice not heard
• No clear message to external community
• Cannot guarantee commitments or quality

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Alternative 2

• Formalized NOAA AMOP to work with Navy AMOP to
  address technical issues
• Ocean Model development, characterization,
  standards
• Ocean Observations and assimilation OSSE, OSE
• Data distribution and analysis
• Products and services
• IT coordination (hardware and software)
• Pros
• Completes NOAA end-to-end parallel mechanism for
  discussing ocean and coastal forecasting
  requirements, CONOPS, approval of research to
  operations, and technical execution
• Establishes clear mechanism for negotiating ocean
  community modeling commitments with external
  partners, including Navy
• Ability to fund, schedule, and execute
  implementation activities
• Cons
• May be construed as another governance committee,
  but must be characterized as an implementation
  body

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Summary

• Navy/NOAA working together to establish common
  ocean and coastal modeling and forecasting
  frameworks for future success
• Building on mutual and unique strengths in
  operational oceanography and coastal services
  through examination of existing efforts
• Providing harmonized environmental models for
  external communities to focus on and provide
  physical basis for ecological forecasting

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Extended Discussion

• Communications
• NOAA Strategy
• Integration

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CommunicationsDeveloping Synergies Within and
Outside NOAA

• Global ? Local physical ocean modeling
• Coordinate with Navy research and operations
  (CNMOC/FNMOC/NAVO, NRL, ONR)
• Via NOAAs Environmental Modeling Program (???)
• Advancing ecosystem modeling and forecasting
• Alignment of NOAA research and operations (NESDIS
  STAR NMFS NOS CO-OPS, CSDL, NCCOS NWS NCEP
  OAR)
• Engaging the external modeling community
• IOOS Modeling Caucus and Modeling Analysis
  Steering Team (MAST)
• JSOST Ocean Research Priorities Plan
  Forecasting subtopic
• National governance
• Development of Tri-Agency NUOPC

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Developing NOAA Strategy

• Starting from existing capabilities
• Physical models
• Considering user requirements
• Coordinating activity in support of NOAA
  Environmental Modeling Program
• Regional approach to management
• Ecosystem forecasting alternative (Ecosystem
  Goal)
• Next-generation integrated basin-scale
  operational ocean modeling system
• Interface to ecosystem modeling and forecasting
  efforts

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Current NOAA Infrastructure for Modeling and
Forecasting
OBSERVATIONS
Satellite (AVHRR, JASON, QuikSCAT)
Satellite (Altimetry, SST)
In situ (ARGO, Buoys, Ships)
In situ (ARGO, Buoys, C-Man, NWLON, River Gage)
Data Cutoff
CFS 2 week data cutoff
RTOFS 24 hour data cutoff
OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION
Coastal Ocean Boundary Specification
CLIMATE FORECAST
OCEAN FORECAST
RT-OFS-GODAE NOPP EMC
CFS-GODAS NCO/ODA EMC NOPP-JPL (ECCO)
ODAAS NOS/CSDL/CO-OPS NWS/EMC/NCO
Shared history, coding, and data processing
OPNL OCEAN FORECASTS Climate Forecast
System Real-Time Ocean Forecast System
MOM-3 ? MOM-4 ? GUOM
HYCOM ? GUOM
Coastal Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System
http//tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/models.html
http//cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/
http//polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/
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Current Infrastructure for Modeling and
Forecasting

• Mostly physics modeling and data assimilation
• Working towards integrating ecological modeling
• Downscaling from global to regional to local
  models
• Need to promote existing operations within and
  outside of NOAA

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Developing NOAA Ocean and Coastal Modeling and
Forecasting StrategyEcosystems Modeling

• Starting from existing capabilities
• NOS Modeling Prioritization Project
• Considering user requirements
• Coordinating activity in support of NOAA
  Ecosystem Goal Team
• Regional approach to management
• Ecosystem forecasting alternative
• Connections to Navy ecosystem modeling needs
• Water quality, ocean optics, rivers and
  estuaries, marine mammals
• Seamless suite of products and services

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NOAA Coordination
Draft NOAA Ecosystem Modeling and Forecast
Products (Operational, In Development, and Needs)
Population dynamics
Invasive species suscept.
Ocean color/primary production
Risks/exposure
YEARS
FORECAST TIME FRAME
Decision support tools
Socioeconomic models
Socio-economic models
Larval trans./MPA design
Spill planning
Climate effects/food web
Disease transmission
Ecosystems (SLR, multiple stressors, hypoxia,
change)
Climate effects/water level
Resource harvest
USER GROUPS
Geomorphology
Geomorphology
MONTHS
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
Restoration
Particle trajectory (pollution, invasive species,
HAB, sediment, multimedia/multipath
sources) Biological/physical coupling
Hypoxic zone formation
Recovery curves
HABs (formation, upwelling, regional monitoring
prediction)
DAYS
Shellfish bed closures
Oil weathering
Oil weathering
Toxicity
Toxicity
Flood forecasts
Storm surge
Levels, currents, S T
REAL TIME
TRANSPORTATION
COASTAL HAZARDS
WATER QUALITY HUMAN HEALTH
COASTAL HABITATS
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Recommendations

• Complete NOAA, Navy, and joint CONOPS for
  operational ocean and coastal modeling and
  forecasting
• Standardization of models (HYCOM, ADCIRC, WW3,
  ROM)
• Coordinate among appropriate NOAA goals and
  programs
• Specify continued NOAA-wide involvement
• Resource support for working groups
• Recognition of and dialogue on requirements
• Clarify IOOS roles and responsibilities in
  community modeling development (Modeling and
  Analysis Steering Team)
• Resource support for community modeling workshops
• Formalize NOAA and Navy governance in ocean and
  coastal modeling and forecasting
• Technical cooperation via annexes to MOU
• Programmatic coordination via Tri-Agency NUOPC
  and other means
• Develop communications plan

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Schedule of Significant Events and Milestones
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Additional and Expanded Slides
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Background

• Navy AMOP Meetings September 2005 (Naval
  Observatory) and February 2006 (Pearl Harbor)
• March 29, 2006 Joint Planning Session, NOAA
  Headquarters, Silver Spring, MD
• Purpose Develop a plan of action and milestones
  for short-term joint activities
• Outcomes Identified two important questions,
  how will we coordinate? and what are the
  details of the models?
• June 13-14, 2006 Joint Workshop, Stennis Space
  Center, MS
• Purpose Answer how will we coordinate?
  question
• Outcomes Identified four issue areas for
  further cooperation and coordination
• Relevant Statements, Policies, and Opinions
• Ocean Action Modeling Plan (NOAA SAB)
• Navy/NOAA Memorandum of Agreement (2004-2014)
• Tri-Agency Agreement (National Unified
  Operational Prediction Capability)
• IOOS Development Plan

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Technical Issue 1Operational Ocean Modeling

• Data availability, access, and distribution
• Coordinated satellite altimetry requirements
• Common portal for static and time-dependent
  boundary data bases
• Common portal for archive of model output
  products
• Announce availability of lateral boundary
  conditions supporting regional and coastal models
• Shared processing requirements
• Concept of operations (CONOPS)
• Operational backup of existing operational ocean
  modeling and data assimilation
• Shared development environment
• Implementation of ESMF for coupling operational
  modeling systems
• Shared products and services
• Definition of requirements (geographic and
  temporal scales)

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Technical Issue 2Ocean Model Development

• Standardization of models
• Endorse existing developer/user groups for HYCOM
  and ADCIRC
• Encourage new developer/user group for wave
  modeling (WW3, SWAN)
• ROM and POM?
• Data assimilation
• Promote Navy NOS ocean representation on JCSDA
  Management Oversight Board
• Shared development environment
• Implementation of ESMF for coupling operational
  modeling systems
• Model validation and evaluation
• Process for joint review and recommendation of
  products for future coordinated development
• Announce intention to coordinate development of
  ocean and coastal models
• Creation of model test beds and evaluation
  metrics

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Technical Issue 3Technologies and Standards

• Source code
• Encourage coordination and further development of
  ESMF core software
• Common configuration management approach
• Standard tools and utilities
• Workshop to review and recommend common
  supporting software and technologies
• Standard inputs
• Static and time-dependent boundary data bases
• Capability for access to common atmospheric
  forcing
• Standard outputs
• Workshop to review and recommend standardized
  data exchange formats and standards

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Phenomena of Interest
100 yr
Climate
Decadal Oscillations/ Fish Regime Shifts
10 yr
ENSO
1 yr
Mesoscale phenomena
Fronts, Eddies, Filaments
Seasonal MLD Biomass Cycles
1 mo
Phytoplankton Blooms
Coastally trapped waves
1 wk
Temporal Scale
Plankton Migration
Synoptic Storms, River Outflows, Sediment
Resuspension
1 day
Internal Tides
Langmuir Cells
1 hr
Surface Tides
Individual Movement
Turbulent Patch Size
Inertial/Internal Solitary Waves
1 min
Molecular Processes
1 sec
Surface Waves
10-3 m
10-2 m
10-1 m
100 m
101 m
102 m
103 m
104 m
105 m
106 m
107 m
Spatial Scale
Adapted from Dickey (2003). J. Marine Systems
40-41 5-48.
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Observing Systems
100 yr
Moorings, Bottom Tripods, and Shore-based and
Offshore-based Platforms
HF Radar
10 yr
Satellites
1 yr
Drifters, Floaters, Gliders
AUVs
1 mo
Submarine Ship Mapping
1 wk
Planes
Temporal Scale
1 day
1 hr
1 min
1 sec
10-3 m
10-2 m
10-1 m
100 m
101 m
102 m
103 m
104 m
105 m
106 m
107 m
Spatial Scale
Adapted from Dickey (2003). J. Marine Systems
40-41 5-48.
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High Resolution Coastal Domains(Demonstrates
interface between Shelf and Coastal models)
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In DevelopmentOperational Coastal Models

• Observations Long and short range radar, SAR,
  SeaWIFS, Lidar (already using altimetry, SST,
  and in situ obs C-Man, NWLON, river gages)
• Data Assimilation CTDs, SST, Altimetry, Fronts,
  Surface radars

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NOAA Coordination