Regional%20Climate%20Modeling:%20A%20Tool%20for%20Decision-Makers

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Regional Climate ModelingA Tool for
Decision-Makers

• Eugene S. Takle
• Agronomy Department
• Geological and Atmospheric Science Department
• Iowa State University
• Ames, Iowa 50011
• gstakle_at_iastate.edu

Institute for Science and Society Iowa State
University 4 May 2004
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Outline

• Evidence for global climate change
• Future atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations
• Simulations of global climate and future climate
  change
• Implications for stream flow and
• nutrient loss
• International collaboration for understanding
• water and energy cycles
• Summary

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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2004
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2040
2004
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Stabilization at 550 ppm
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Business as Usual (fossil intensive) 2100
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Associated Climate Changes

• Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr
• Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes
  decreased by 2 weeks in N. Hemisphere
• Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased
  in extent by 10-15
• Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar,
  mountainous regions
• Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N.
  Hemisphere
• Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents
• Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges
• Snow cover decreased by 10
• Earlier flowering dates
• Coral reef bleaching

Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2001 Report
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Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes,
1999 Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.
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Source Jerry Meehl, National Center for
Atmospheric Research
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Source National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2001 Report
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40 Probability
5 Probability
Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2001 Report
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Climate Change Projected for 2100
Rapid Economic Growth
Slower Economic Growth
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IPCC Summary for Policy Makers

• An increasing body of observations gives a
  collective picture of a warming world and other
  changes in the climate system
• Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to
  human activities continue to alter the
  atmosphere in ways that are
  expected to affect the climate

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IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, contd

• Confidence in the ability of models to project
  future climate has increased
• There is new and stronger evidence that most of
  the warming observed over the last 50
  years is attributable to human
  activities

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IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, contd

• Confidence in the ability of models to project
  future climate has increased
• There is new and stronger evidence that most of
  the warming observed over the last 50
  years is attributable to human
  activities

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IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, contd

• Confidence in the ability of models to project
  future climate has increased
• There is new and stronger evidence that most of
  the warming observed over the last 50
  years is attributable to human
  activities

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IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, contd

• Anthropogenic climate change will persist for
  many centuries
• Further action is required to address remaining
  gaps in information and understanding

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http//www.grida.no/climate/vital/38.htm
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Climate Surprises

• Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation
  (Greenland melt water)
• Breakoff of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

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Antarctica
Greenland
Ice Volume
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Warm
Cold
Climate
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Regional Climate Change for the US Midwest

• Observed and projected changes in climate
• Impact on water quantity and water quality
• Policy implications

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For the Midwest

• Warming will be greater for winter than summer
• Warming will be greater at night than during the
  day
• A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples
  the probability of a heat wave
• Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer
  now than in 1950)
• More precipitation
• Likely more soil moisture in summer
• More rain will come in intense rainfall events
• Higher stream flow, more flooding

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Sub-Basins of the Upper Mississippi River Basin
119 sub-basins Outflow measured at Grafton, IL
Approximately one observing station per
sub-basin Approximately one model grid point per
sub-basin
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Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)

• Long-term, continuous watershed simulation model
  (Arnold et al,1998)
• Assesses impacts of climate and management on
  yields of water, sediment, and agricultural
  chemicals
• Physically based, including hydrology, soil
  temperature, plant growth, nutrients,
• pesticides and land management
• Daily time steps

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SWAT Output with Various Sources of Climate Input
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Validation of SWAT Annual Stream Flow at
Grafton, IL
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Validation of SWAT Monthly Stream Flow at
Grafton, IL
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RegCM2 Simulation Domain
Red global model grid point
Green/blue regional model grid points
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Annual Stream Flow Simulated by SWAT Driven by
the RegCM2 Regional Climate Model with NNR
Lateral Boundary Conditions
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Mean Monthly Precipitation Simulated by the
RegCM2 Regional Climate Model with NNR Lateral
Boundary Conditions
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Seasonal Stream Flow Simulated by SWAT Driven by
the RegCM2 Regional Climate Model with NNR
Lateral Boundary Conditions
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Warming Hole
C
DTmax (JJA)
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Ten-Year Mean Precipitation Generated by the
RegCM2 Regional Climate Model Driven with HadCM2
Global Model Results for the Contemporary and
Future Scenario (2040s) Climate
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Ten-Year Mean Monthly Stream Flow Generated by
the RegCM2 Regional Climate Model Driven with
HadCM2 Global Model Results for the Contemporary
and Future Scenario (2040s) Climate
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Comparison of Simulated Stream Flow under
Climate Change with Various Model Biases
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Relation of Runoff to Precipitation for Various
Climates
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Regional Climate Modeling for Informing Policy on
Water Quality

• How does the combination of climate change and
  land use impact water quality?
• Use nitrates and sediment as indicators
• What alternative land management strategies will
  improve water quality?
• What policies need to be
• implemented to achieve this water
• quality improvement?

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Maquoketa Watershed
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Scenario 1 all Agriculture
Scenario 2 all Forest
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Scenario 3 N. half Agric. and S. half Forest.
Scenario 4 S. half Agric. and N. half Forest.
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Scenario 5 Upper half Agric. and lower half
Forest.
Scenario 6 Lower half Agric. and upper half
Forest.
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Scenario 7 Main channel basins - Agric.
Scenario 8 Main channel basins - Forest.
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Fractional changes in mean annual flow and yield
under various scenarios normalized by the
fractional change in area from all-agricultural
for the scenario.
Scenario 1995 (normal year) 1993 (wet year) 1988 (dry year)
Flow Sediment yield Nitrate
Scenario 1 - - -
Scenario 2 -0.01 1.00 0.99
Scenario 3 -0.02 0.42 0.52
Scenario 4 0.00 0.55 0.48
Scenario 5 -0.03 0.75 0.60
Scenario 6 0.03 0.21 0.40
Scenario 7 -0.02 0.68 0.74
Scenario 8 0.02 0.28 0.25
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Fractional changes in mean annual flow and yield
under various scenarios normalized by the
fractional change in area from all-agricultural
for the scenario.
Scenario 1995 (normal year) 1993 (wet year) 1988 (dry year)
Flow Sediment yield Nitrate
Scenario 1 - - -
Scenario 2 -0.01 1.00 0.99
Scenario 3 -0.02 0.42 0.52
Scenario 4 0.00 0.55 0.48
Scenario 5 -0.03 0.75 0.60
Scenario 6 0.03 0.21 0.40
Scenario 7 -0.02 0.68 0.74
Scenario 8 0.02 0.28 0.25
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Improving Regional Climate Models

• Project to Intercompare Regional Climate
  Simulations
• Transferability Working Group of GEWEX

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Project to Intercompare Regional Climate
Simulations (PIRCS)
PIRCS Mission To provide a common framework for
evaluating strengths and weaknesses of regional
climate models and their component procedures
through systematic, comparative simulations PIRCS
Co-Directors
Ray Arritt rwarritt_at_iastate.edu Bill Gutowski
gutowski_at_iastate.edu Gene Takle
gstakle_at_iastate.edu
http//www.pircs.iastate.edu/
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PIRCS Participating Groups

• Danish Met. Inst. (HIRHAM4 J.H. Christensen,
  O.B. Christensen)
• Université du Québec à Montréal (D. Caya, S.
  Biner)
• Scripps Institution of Oceanography (RSM J.
  Roads, S. Chen)
• NCEP (RSM S.-Y. Hong)
• NASA - Marshall (MM5/BATS W. Lapenta)
• CSIRO (DARLAM J. McGregor, J. Katzfey)
• Colorado State University (ClimRAMS G. Liston)
• Iowa State University (RegCM2 Z. Pan)
• Iowa State University (MM5/LSM D. Flory)
• Univ. of Maryland / NASA-GSFC (GEOS M.
  Fox-Rabinovitz)
• SMHI / Rossby Centre (RCA M. Rummukainen, C.
  Jones)
• NOAA (RUC2 G. Grell)
• ETH (D. Luethi)
• Universidad Complutense Madrid (PROMES
  M.Gaertner)
• Université Catholique du Louvain (P. Marbaix)
• Argnonne National Lab (MM5 V3 J. Taylor, J.
  Larson)
• St. Louis University (Z. Pan)

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La Plata
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Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment
OBJECTIVES
Determine the hydrological cycle and energy
fluxes by means of global measurements of
observable atmospheric and surface properties.
Model the global hydrological cycle and its
impact on the atmosphere, oceans, and on the land
surface.
Develop the ability to predict the variations
of global and regional hydrological processes and
water resources, and their response to
environmental change. Foster the development
of observing techniques, data management, and
assimiliation systems suitable for operational
application to long-range weather forecasts,
hydrology, and climate predictions.
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Phase II Primary Science Questions
Updated GEWEX Science Questions

• Are the Earths Energy Budget and Water
• Cycle Changing?

Is the Water Cycle Accelerating?
2. How do Processes Contribute to Feedback and
Causes of Natural Variability?
3. Can We Predict these Changes on up to S - IA?
4. What are the Impacts of these Changes on
Water Resources?
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CSEs
GAME
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Summary

• Regional climate models demonstrate sufficient
  skill to be useful for driving some climate
  impacts assessment models for the purpose of
  informing policy makers and decision-makers of
  vulnerabilities and opportunities associated with
  future climate change

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For More Information

• See my online Global Change course
• http//www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
• Contact me directly
• gstakle_at_iastate.edu