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We will use an atmospheric model with Arctic specific physics. Includes NOAH land surface model ... Wolf Creek. 195 Km2. Caribou-Poker Creeks. 104 Km2. Kuparuk ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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1
Detection and attribution of changes in the
hydrologic regimes of the Mackenzie, the Kuparuk
and the Lena River Basins
 Larry D. Hinzman University of Alaska
Fairbanks   Amanda Lynch University of
Colorado   Kenji Yoshikawa University of Alaska
Fairbanks William Gutowski Iowa State
University Philip Marsh National Hydrologic
Research Center
John Cassano University of Colorado   Douglas L.
Kane University of Alaska Fairbanks   Matt A.
Nolan University of Alaska Fairbanks  Yuji
Kodama Hokkaido University Richard
Janowicz Indian and Northern Affairs
2
The objectives of this research are to detect and
document changes in the storage of freshwater in
the Arctic regions of the Western Canadian,
Alaskan, and Eastern Siberian Arctic, to ascribe
those changes to their land cover or climate
source, and assess the impacts of past and future
variations in storage components on freshwater
inputs into the Arctic Ocean. We intend to
characterize the changing hydrologic regime
spatially to facilitate accurate projections of
future hydrologic conditions and to develop a
numerical modeling capability that 1) accurately
captures contemporary climatic and hydrologic
dynamics, 2) projects reasonably accurate
responses to future scenarios and 3) incorporates
well documented algorithms that will be
distributed to other modeling groups wishing to
include dynamic land surface processes in arctic
regions.
3
Objectives - document changes in the storage of
terrestrial freshwater in the Arctic regions of
the Western Canada, Alaska, and Eastern Siberia -
attribute the cause of those changes - accurately
project future hydrologic conditions by
validating and applying several
spatially-distributed numerical models of
atmosphere and surface hydrology - assess the
impacts of past and possible future variations
4
Atmospheric Modelingwith the pan-Arctic MM5
  • Pan-Arctic MM5 (PAM)
  • We will use an atmospheric model with Arctic
    specific physics
  • Includes NOAH land surface model
  • Used in NCEP climate and weather prediction
    models
  • Predicts soil moisture, soil and skin
    temperature, snowpack depth, snow water
    equivalent, and heat and moisture fluxes
  • Includes explicit treatment of frozen ground
  • Polar specific model physics for clouds,
    turbulence, and sea ice
  • Atmospheric physics from the Polar MM5
  • Horizontal resolution of 10-50 km
  • Pan-Arctic and SHEBA domains - 50 km
  • Mackenzie, Kuparuk, and Lena watersheds - 30 and
    10 km

5
Atmospheric Modeling
  • Large watershed domains
  • Mackenzie, Kuparuk, and Lena watersheds
  • 30 km horizontal resolution
  • Smaller watershed domains
  • Indicated with red boxes in these plots
  • 10 km horizontal resolution
  • Provide atmospheric forcing data for detailed
    hydrologic modeling with TopoFlow

6
Atmospheric Modeling
  • Initial Simulations
  • Sept 1997 - Sept 1998(SHEBA year)
  • Increased data for model validation
  • Coordinated with ARCMIP
  • International model intercomparison project
  • Purpose of simulations
  • Model validation with a focus on
  • Snow cover
  • Surface fluxes
  • Atmospheric circulation

7
Trail Valley Creek, NWT
8
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12
Trail Valley Creek 63 Km2
Caribou-Poker Creeks 104 Km2
Wolf Creek 195 Km2
Tania Creek 8 Km2
13
Kuparuk River Watershed 8000 Km2
14
Konngakut River
McCall Glacier
Hulahula River
15
(No Transcript)
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