Supply and demand trends Meat Imbizo

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Supply and demand trendsMeat Imbizo

• Johan Willemse
• Ag Economics,UFS
• 2 March 2006

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What are we going to talk about?

• International situation/prices
• Domestic economic growth/diets changing
• SA agriculture is changing
• Meat production and import supplies
• Some implications.

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World meat production -million ton
2005 257,9 Mt
1996 206,6 Mt
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Poultry meat is the most important followed by
pork, then bovine
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Disease will disrupt trade

• USA/Canada still struggle with BSE and export
  bans
• Foot and mouth disease in Brazil (large beef and
  poultry exporter)
• Avian flu in Asia, into Europe now in Africa..
• Disrupting trade and demand(10-40 drop in
  broiler demand)
• Will impact on prices/supply of all meats

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What can we expect?

• Initial analysis indicated
• Limiting of broiler exports-pushing world prices
  higher for all meats
• Limited availability of broiler and beef will
  increase prices in most importing countries, like
  SA
• Australian meat export demand soaring (clean
  meat) as they utilize market opportunities

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However ,consumers are reacting..

• USDA reports that AI fears dropped consumption in
  Middle Eastern countries and neighbours.
• Poultry consumption dropped 40 in Egypt.
• Saudi Arabian consumption down by 30.
• Australian lamb and mutton exports to region
  increased sharply in January 06.

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Latest reactions

• Poultry prices are dropping sharply, as export
  producers(US Brazil) try to find new markets.
• Interrelationship with other meats will impact on
  markets..
• SA broiler import prices are dropping
• How will it influence demand and other meat
  industries in South Africa

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Escalating bird flu crisis jeopardizes global
poultry trade prospects Reduced consumption is
lowering poultry prices and import demand 28
February 2006, Rome - Recent avian influenza
outbreaks in Europe, the Middle East and Africa
have caused dramatic swings in poultry
consumption, increased trade bans and sharp price
declines, FAO said today.
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South African agricultural production are
switching away from field crops to meat as diets
change
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South African strong economic growth drive meat
demand
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Beef in herd building phase and imports part of
supply
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Beef imports are important
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Import prices are dropping
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Mutton imports and Austr. prices
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Pork imports are important
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Poultry imports are important
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Poultry import prices are dropping.
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Concluding remarks

• World meat production, trade , consumption
  patterns will change
• South Africa is a meat importer, with economic
  growth, diets are changing towards higher value
  protein products
• The next year will bring important changes-can
  we manage the impact?

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