How Breakthroughs in Information Systems Can Impact Local Decisions

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How Breakthroughs in Information Systems Can
Impact Local Decisions

• Bruce Babcock
• Center for Agricultural and Rural Development
• Iowa State University

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The Problem

• In many areas, agriculture is the main source of
  water pollution.
• But pollution contribution may vary dramatically
  across farms.
• Large variations in pollution quantity lead to
  large variations in the cost of preventing
  pollution.
• Large variations give farmers plausible
  deniability of responsibility for pollution.

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How to Reduce Uncertainty about Cause and Effect?

• Must want to know
• Must have resources to collect data and construct
  models
• Must have unbiased scientists
• Must have time

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Procedure to Reduce Uncertainty

• Must have baseline data about
• agricultural practices being used
• climate
• stream flows
• topography
• other nonpoint and point sources of pollution
• in-stream data about water quality
• Must have models of
• crop growth and nutrient utilization
• movement of nutrients off of farm fields towards
  streams
• movement and degradation of nutrients in streams

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UNBRW Baseline Manure Application Rates (kg/ha)
for Coastal/W. Wheat
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Upper North Bosque River Watershed
Sampling sites Producer locations Subbasins
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CEEOT-LP
Environmental component
manure application. fields
otherland use
Policy scenarios
APEX(field scale)
SWAT(watershed/river basin)
Comparison ofeconomic andenvironmental
indicators
FEM economic costs and returns for
representative farms
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APEX-SWAT Linkage
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APEX manure
application fields
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Input daily APEX edge-of-field
flows, and sediment and nutrient
loadings, at SWAT subbasin outlet
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Average Monthly Flow (m3/s) at UNBRW Outlet
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Average Monthly Soluble Phosphorous (kg) at
UNBRW Outlet
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Outcomes

• Dairies were shown to be major contributors to
  water quality problems
• The only feasible options were to haul manure out
  of the watershed or to expand acreage of
  applications fields
• Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission
  adopted a new TMDL that is 50 below current
  phosphorus levels.
• Everybody now agrees that there is a tradeoff
  between water quality and dairy profits.

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Upper Maquoketa River Watershed
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Upper Maquoketa River Watershed Inventory of
Livestock Operations
a45 dairy, 20 beef cows, 870 hogs, 5 feeder
cattle
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The Problem

• Local watershed council felt that conservation
  funds not being targeted enough
• Water quality was not improving.
• Focus was on controlling erosion
• First-come first-serve for cost shares
• Existing conservation funds could be more
  efficiently used by more targeting.

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Are Cost Variations Important?

• Suppose you have 10 farmers that are polluting a
  stream.
• A filter strip costing each farmer 1000 is the
  preferred method for eliminating pollution.

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What If There Were No Cost Variations?

• Suppose each farm polluted 5.5 units.

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Are Cost Variations Important?

• Yes, but only if the cost savings can be
  captured.
• How can we identify when there are potentially
  big savings from adopting a flexible control
  policy?
• How can we implement a flexible control policy?

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Computer Experiments

• Calibrate crop growth and water flow models
• Simulate alternative control scenarios
• flexible vs inflexible
• targeted vs uniform
• Get a rough idea of the order of magnitude of
  benefits that can be obtained from alternative
  actions

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Results from Maquoketa Study

• Targeting cost shares to induce adoption of
  no-till had a large payoff in reducing P loads.
• Inducing farmers to test for soil P levels before
  replacement applications increased profit and
  water quality
• P based manure application rates

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Upper Mississippi Analysis

• Cannot obtain a complete inventory of operations.
  Must use more aggregate estimates
• Use National Resources Inventory data
• Use National Agricultural Statistics Service data
  for county-level crop and livestock production
• Use USDA Cropping Practices Survey data for cost
  estimates
• Cannot calibrate models as well. Must use
  guidance from individual watershed studies.

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NRI Estimate of Percent Tiled Land
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What Do We Hope to Learn?

• What are the most efficient ways of reducing
  nitrogen loads in the Upper Mississippi River?
• How much will it cost to reduce nitrogen loads?
• What impacts (positive and negative) will
  nitrogen targeting have on other pollutants?
• If local water quality efforts target phosphorus,
  what will be the consequences on nitrogen?