Emission projections for NEC Gases Irelands approach

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Emission projections for NEC Gases Irelands
approach

• Stephan Leinert, Bernard Hyde, Eimear Cotter

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Overview

• Introduction
• General approach
• Transport
• Agriculture
• Solvents
• Conclusions

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Approach to emissions projections for NEC gases

• Consistency with national energy forecast
• Consistency with GHG projections
• Consistency with inventories (e.g. emission
  factors, car fleet mileage)

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Emissions

• Energy related
• Power generation
• Road transport
• Industrial combustion
• Residential
• Commercial Institutional Services
• Fuel use in agriculture

• Non-energy related
• Agriculture (NH3)
• Agriculture (NMVOC)
• Solvent emissions
• Storage and distribution of oil products

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Source categories for projections
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Energy Forecast Institutional/procedural
arangements
ESRI Economic and Social Research Institute
SEI Sustainable Energy Ireland
EPA Environmental Protection Agency
ESRI Macroeconomic Forecast

• EPA
• Disaggregate fuel data
• Apply emission factors
• gt NEC projections

SEI National Energy Forecasts
ESRI Energy Forecast
Policy assumptions
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Emission Scenarios
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Assumptions underpinning Energy Forecasts

• With Measures and
• With Additional Measures projections
• are both based on ESRI Credit Crunch Scenario
  (2008).
• Economic Shock
• is based on a sensitivity study on the With
  Measures scenario, to give an indication of the
  impact of a further contraction in the economy

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NOx inventories and projections

• Strong decrease in Powergen NOx emissions both
  absolute and as fraction of total projected to
  continue
• Increase of Transport NOx emissons both absolute
  and as fraction of total
• Transport NOx emissions projected to decrease in
  absolute terms will still be major contributing
  sector

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Overview

• Introduction
• General approach
• Transport
• Agriculture
• Solvents
• Conclusions

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Road transport general approach

• Using COPERT 4, v6.1
• Input population, mileage etc
• Consistency with last years inventory e.g.
  mileage and speeds
• Consistency/agreement within about 1 of
  statistical fuel consumption (energy forecast)
  and calculated fuel consumption (COPERT)

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COPERT input car population

• Car fleet
• Start from last inventories population
• Apply decay factor (function of age of car)
• Grow total in line with growth in fuel usage (as
  a starting point)
• Newly registered cars as differential between
  total car number and existing cars
• Assume new cars meet the required standards

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COPERT input car population

• 2007 last inventory year

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COPERT input car population

• 2007 last inventory year

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COPERT input LDV, HDV, bus, coach

• LDV similar to cars
• HDV total number growth at fixed rate (rather
  than in line with fuel forcast)
• Buses/coaches total number growth at fixed rate
  (average over last few years)

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Road transport different scenarios

• With Measures (Baseline) scenario is constructed
  first
• With Additional Measures (White Paper) and
• Economic Shock
• are derived from With Measures scenario
• using With Measures fleet population
• adjusting mileage to achieve agreement between
  statistical fuel use (energy forecast) and
  calculated fuel use (COPERT)

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Road transport challenges

• Balance the aim for consistency with energy
  forecast, and consistency with e.g. inventory
• Fuel tourism
• Data availability

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Other transport

• Rail is not included in the energy forecast.
  Emission projections are developed in
  consultation with Irish Rail.
• Aviation not included in the energy forecast.
  Emission projections are developed in
  consultation with Dublin Airport Authority.
• Navigation emissions are assumed to stay constant.

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Agriculture

• There are a lot of sheep in Ireland

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Agriculture

• There are a lot of sheep in Ireland

Reality is that cattle outnumber sheep and NH3
emissions associated with cattle make up about
80 of NH3 emissions.
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NH3 Agriculture contribution

• Almost all NH3 from agriculture
• Around 80 attributable to cattle, very stable
• Further decrease for total NH3 emissions
  projected
• Fraction attributable to cattle staying at about
  80

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Approach Projections Input Data

• Projected animal numbers, crop areas and
  fertiliser use statistics
• FAPRI Ireland Partnership
• Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute
• Produce objective analysis of agricultural policy
  options based on economic models of commodity
  markets

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Advantages of Irish Approach(Agriculture)

• Use of inventory model to project forward
• Data required and supplied generally at
  aggregation of the inventory
• Transparent and straight-forward
• Easy to implement sub-sector changes and examine
  scenarios

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Overview

• Introduction
• General approach
• Transport
• Agriculture
• Solvents
• Conclusions

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Solvents and other product use

• Paint application
• Degreasing and Dry Cleaning
• Per capita emissions are assumed constant, thus
  growth in line with population growth.
• Chemical Products
• Other Solvent Uses
• Per capita emissions were declining since 1990
  trend assumed to go forward.

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Overview

• Introduction
• General approach
• Transport
• Agriculture
• Solvents
• Conclusions

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Overall conclusionsAdvantages of Irish Approach

• Consistency with inventories/historic data
• Emission factors
• Same model (e.g. NH3 agriculture, road
  traffic/COPERT)
• Consistency with national energy forecast
• Consistency with GHG projections

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Overall conclusionsDisadvantages of Irish
Approach

• Requires detailed activity data statistics (e.g.
  agriculture)
• Transport projection is not straight forward
• Fuel tourism causes conflict between
• Consistency with energy forecast for fuel and
• realistic car population/mileage
• Energy forecast currently at aggregated level (no
  breakdown within fuel types yet)

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• Thank you for your attention.

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Approach Inventory Input Data

• Cattle Sheep Poultry
• Dairy cows Lowland ewes Layers
• Suckler cows Upland ewes Broilers
• Male cattle lt 1 year Rams Turkeys
• Male cattle 1-2 years Lambs
• Male cattle gt 2 years Other livestock
• Female cattle lt 1 year Pigs Horses
• Female cattle 1-2 years Sows in pig Mules and
  Asses
• Female cattle gt 2 years Sows for breeding Goats
• Bulls for breeding Gilts in pig
• Dairy in-calf heifers Gilts notyet served Other
  Data
• Beef in-calf heifers Fattening pigs lt 20kg Manure
  Management statistics
• Fattening pigs gt 20kg Fertilzer use
  statistics
• NH3 emission estimates
• Sludge application to land