Do you believe in global warming Jane Doe, OU Sophomore, Elk City, OK

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Do you believe in global warming?(Jane Doe, OU
Sophomore, Elk City, OK)

• 1. to accept as true or as speaking or convey
• the truth
• 2. to have religious faith, to believe
  in God
• 3. to think, to suppose (I believe its
  raining)
• Oxford American
  Dictionary, 1979

where believe is defined as
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GLOBAL WARMING

• A Planetary Scale issue involving transfers of
  radiation between the Sun, Earth, and Space
• Lets assume Earth has no atmosphere solar
  radiation is absorbed by Earths surface (egg
  shell thin) and immediately returned to Space as
  terrestrial radiation no heat storage occurs
• The Earths surface must have a temperature that
  supports this radiation balance
• That temperature is -18C (0F) whereas the
  present global average surface
• air temperature is 15C (59F)
• The difference of 33C (59F) is due to the
  NATURAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT

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(No Transcript)
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CHANGES IN GREENHOUSE
GASES (over last 10,000 years)
CARBON DIOXIDE
Red from atmospheric samples Other Colors
from ice cores
METHANE
NITROUS OXIDE
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COOLING
WARMING
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GLOBAL WARMING
Circles yearly values Black curves decadal
averaged Blue areas uncertainty intervals Red
sea level from satellites
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SIMULATED VERSUS OBSERVED TEMPERATURE
(1900-2000)

Red Area Range of model simulations including
natural and anthropogenic forcings
Black Line Decadal averages of observations
Blue Area Range of model simulations using
natural forcings
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SIMULATIONS FOR 2000-2100

Different Emission Scenarios
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REGIONAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY

• With possible exception of high latitudes (say,
  beyond 60), most of what can happen already has
  occurred.
• Global warming will be manifest regionally as
  changes in
• FREQUENCY
  DURATION
• INTENSITY
  SEASONALITY
• of regional climate phenomena with which we have
  familiarity ALREADY

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TEMPERATURE SIMULATIONS FOR DECADES OF 2020s and
2090s
(C)
ANNUAL
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PRECIPITATION SIMULATIONS FOR 2090s VERSUS 1980s
1990s
December-February
June-August
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FIRST IPCC (1990) SIMULATIONS
JUNE-AUGUST TEMPERATURE
JUNE-AUGUST PRECIPITATION
FOR CO2 DOUBLING
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DISAPPEARANCE OF LAKE CHAD
1963
1973
2001
1987
From A. Gore, An Inconvenient Truth, 2006
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RAINFALL CHANGE IN SAHELIAN WEST AFRICA 1941-2005
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Journal of Climate (August 15, 2006) Article pp.
39894008 Detection and Attribution of
Twentieth-Century Northern and Southern African
Rainfall Change
Martin
Hoerling
NOAA/Earth System Research
Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado James Hurrell
National Center for Atmospheric Research,
Boulder, Colorado Jon Eischeid NOAA/Earth
System Research Laboratory, Boulder,
Colorado Adam Phillips National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado ABSTRACT
The spatial patterns, time history,
and seasonality of African rainfall trends since
1950 are found to be deducible from the
atmospheres response to the known variations of
global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The
robustness of the oceanic impact is confirmed
through the diagnosis of 80 separate 50-yr
climate simulations across a suite of atmospheric
general circulation models. Drying over the Sahel
during boreal summer is shown to be a response to
warming of the South Atlantic relative to North
Atlantic SST, with the ensuing anomalous
interhemispheric SST contrast favoring a more
southern position of the Atlantic intertropical
convergence zone. Southern African drying during
austral summer is shown to be a response to
Indian Ocean warming, with enhanced atmospheric
convection over those warm waters driving
subsidence drying over Africa. The
ensemble of greenhouse-gas-forced experiments,
conducted as part of the Fourth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
fails to simulate the pattern or amplitude of the
twentieth-century African drying, indicating that
the drought conditions were likely of natural
origin. For the period 200049, the ensemble mean
of the forced experiments yields a wet signal
over the Sahel and a dry signal over southern
Africa. These rainfall changes are physically
consistent with a projected warming of the North
Atlantic Ocean compared with the South Atlantic
Ocean, and a further warming of the Indian Ocean.
However, considerable spread exists among the
individual members of the multimodel ensemble.
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KYOTO PROTOCOL
Sense of Senate Resolution 1997
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APPROVED 95-0
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U.S. ENGAGEMENT SINCE KYOTO

• 1. Strong scientific contributions by individuals
  and groups, including by civil servants in
  federal agencies and university scientists
  receiving federal funding.
• 2. Manifest in recently released Fourth
  Assessment of IPCC which was acknowledged by
  NOAA Administrator (political appointee).
• BUT
• 3. U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)
  produced little more than a few Assessment
  Reports.
• 4. On the policy, technology, alternative energy,
  and regulatory sides .?
• 5. PEW Foundation survey identified U.S. lack of
  response to global warming as second reason
  (after Iraq War) for declining U.S. respect in
  World.

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Do you believe in .?
Conservative Christianity
Evolution Global Warming Stem Cell Research
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Do you believe that ?

• U.S. Scientists have played their part thus far?
• U.S. politicians and diplomats now have important
  leadership roles to play to the point of
  statesmanship?