Future Profiles of e-Research

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e-Science
UK
8-11 September, Edinburgh, UK
ALL HANDS MEETING 2008
"Crossing Boundaries"
JISC

• Future Profiles of e-Research

Ian Miles Manchester Institute of Innovation
Research Manchester Business School University of
Manchester Ian.Miles_at_mbs.ac.uk
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WHAT SORT OF BEAST IS e-RESEARCH?
Using e-infrastructure
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WHERE ARE WE WITH e-RESEARCH?
Using e-infrastructure
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WHERE ARE WE WITH e-RESEARCH has
Using e-infrastructure
Implications for the ways in which we can think
about sorts of community and practice, sorts of
application and effect, whether we expect change
to be incremental or (potentially) revolutionary,
how problems and opportunities may be identified
and addressed
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Two other thoughts about these trajectories - 1
Envelope Curves
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The other thought about these trajectories
Trajectory of Hype
Peak of .Inflated ..Expectations
Plateau of Productivity
Slope of Enlightenment
Trough of Disillusionment
Technology Trigger
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In Forsociety, we explored scenarios for
e-Infrastructure

• ForSociety http//www.eranet-forsociety.net/ForSo
  ciety/index.html

What is ForSociety ForSociety ERA-Net is a
sustainable and dynamic network, where national
foresight programme managers co-ordinate their
activities and - on the basis of shared knowledge
on relevant issues, methodologies, legal and
financial frameworks - regularly develop and
implement efficient trans-national foresight
programmes that significantly enrich both the
national and the European research and innovation
systems.
Future dialogues develop understanding of areas where Foresight may be used to assist transnational cooperation e.g. The Future of Nutrition Production, Consumption, Innovation European Energy Future Electronic Infrastructures from ICT to collaborative science and innovation networks Towards a transnational foresight analysis task force for Agronomic Knowledge in ST The dynamics of the national and regional research innovation systems (RIS) and the emergence of the European Research Area (ERA) The future of multinational innovation clusters in Biotechnology and Life Sciences Future dialogue on European infrastructures - Assess tasks for an integrated Europe-wide foresight network on infrastructures
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ForSociety future dialogue

• Small group met and explored alternative
  scenarios for e-infrastructure
• Identified drivers and issues
• Explored 4 scenarios using archetype method
  rather than 22 driver method
• Avoiding Business as usual, asked participants to
  work on identifying PLAUSIBLE paths of
  development that would be better then, worse
  than, or different from expectations
• Uncertainty about the field demonstrated by the
  results that (a) ALL paths of development were
  seen as possible outcomes (we did not take this
  out to wider rating of likelihood or extent of
  realisation) (b) Most interest was generated by
  the futures out there, where the bus doesnt
  run, which were felt to be particularly
  challenging and liable to be realised in one or
  other way!

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Future Dialogue on e-Infrastructures (FORSOCIETY
2006-7)

• Scenarios
• Elephant - Positive development, rapid (faster
  than expected) uptake Research-dedicated e-I
• Tiger ?Utopia - Positive development, rapid
  uptake multipurpose, public-private
  e-infrastructures
• Panther/Snake ?Interesting times -
  Substantially different path of development
• Donkey - Disastrous (much slower than expected)
  development

OSI TCP/IP Linux Internet bubble
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Scenario 1 Elephant - The main theme

• Seamless access to the e-Infrastructure i.e.
  integrated resources (networking, computing,
  data, etc.) and services offered to the
  scientific users
• Users should be satisfied (easy access)
• Without the providers frustration

Drivers

• Grand challenge applications drive the need for
  seamless integration
• EC has a clear integrating role
• Seamless integration provides equal opportunities
  in using the e-Infrastructures

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Scenario 1 Elephant - Issues arising, problems

• Positive features (Strengthening Science and
  Education in Europe) need to be offset by Risks
• Risk to privacy Scientists ambitions vs.
  users/beneficiary privacy (e.g. Medical patient
  records)
• Risk of over-satisfaction / sustainability
• Victims of our own success Who pays at the end?
• Change of social behavior, need for new norms
• Now Reading e-mails when someone presents,
  getting mobile phone calls during the meetings..
  Future Submit job through the mobile phone and
  get results while being
• Health hazards?
• Increasing digital divide? Incl specific
  Countries or applications being left behind.

Open Questions

• Single, general purpose eInfrastructure or
  several interconnected application/discipline-spec
  ific eIs?
• User empowered or not?
• Virtualisation everywhere?

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Scenario 2 Tiger - The main theme

• For eI providers safe investments (equipment
  will have long-term users).
• Focus on core research, industry collaboration
  very easy (same standards, both academia and
  industry have healthy market for computing
  services).
• Larger array of services available, easier to
  launch and access services through common
  standards. New value added services.
• PC will disappear?

Drivers

• Globalisation
• Grand challenge applications drive the need for
  seamless integration which provides equal
  opportunities in using the e-Infrastructures
• EC has a clear integrating role
• Shared commercial interests (incl. research
  community) and understanding. Immediacy, low
  cost IT services. Driven by profit motive where
  both large and small companies see advantages for
  business efficiency, etc.
• Commodification of services as academics see
  benefits Big firms are prepared to go beyond
  traditional data centres (outsourcing these data
  centres to the grid) SMEs have access to IT
  power on pay per use basis
• Economies of scale important issues of
  security and quality solved in widely acceptable
  ways. Trust in and desire for advanced
  technology
• Low cost specialisation of services -
  Agent-auction mechanism.

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Scenario 2 Tiger More info

• Storylines
• Bootstrap as we did with Internet and web, from
  RD community to wider use
• The first limited applications will be
  public/private initiatives
• Self-propelling development others want to
  emulate network externalities.
• Commodification and de facto standards for a
  second layer of services control of usage,
  payments and micropayments
• Virtues Problems
• Scenario seen as having mostly virtues, but.
• Privacy?
• Legal problems?
• Critical factors
• Open de facto standards for metering and secure
  billing for services.
• International resolution of legal problems like
  IPR, patents, licensing
• Avoidance of national hegemony control of
  underlying infrastructure protectionism as
  important parameters
• Barriers like protectionism, security and trust

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Scenario 3 Panther - The main theme

• Traditional infrastructure providers become
  irrelevant.
• Research might be stuck with obsolete
  technologies
• From society perspective opportunity, crisis.

Drivers

• Open and difficult scenario with several possible
  routes to it
• Much in common with Tiger, but stress on new
  factors influencing economies of scale (technical
  innovation, large emerging countries)
• Mixed model with public private sector
  participation - but industry has superior
  momentum that forces public sector to apply it.
  New classes of research(er)?
• Storylines
• Market discontinuity some player offers the
  world very low cost data centre/computer facility
  could be Sony thin client server or Google
  sales platform In Plan 9 from Outer
  Playstation, the idea is that of using a
  powerful processor like Playstation with some
  open source software as a cheap and accessible
  platform for all sorts of applications. Another
  model is BOINC. Another is P2P and Planetlab
  the model here is that all Playstations are left
  on and used as elements in a distributed
  computing system (like the SETI project) a
  data swarm which would be user driven, and
  perhaps be difficult due to problems of
  authentication and control

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Scenario 3 Panther - Varieties

• Storylines 2
• Changed technological paradigm, e.g. quantum
  computing or similar major architecture change,
  massive data storage (exabytes for a few euros)
  meaning that we only need data grids (unless
  local storage prices are also radically reduced)
  much individual P2P multilateral activity.
• Going East E and SE Asia (China, Japan, Korea)
  driven market driven mechanism outgrowing from
  manufacturing to a new trading tool, new IPR from
  Asia-centred computing science quasi Grid-based
  computing sold to all suppliers in China market
  spreads worldwide, driven by economies of scale
  and low costs, together with the market strength
  of C21st major growth centre (?).
• Virtues Problems
• New opportunities for new types of businesses
• Handling investments on technologies that become
  obsolete overnight danger of triggering a
  recession.
• Europe might have difficulties in adapting to
  technology that has been developed in different
  environment (e.g. facing the copper limit in
  interconnecting systems).
• Policies Ensure contact between cutting-edge
  research and infrastructure providers.
• Uncertainties incl Barriers in, e.g., power
  consumption. (resistance to leaving processors
  turned on all the time).

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Scenario 4 Donkey - The main theme

• Total inability of e-Infrastructure to fulfill
  user requirements

Drivers

• Grand challenge applications fail to drive the
  need for seamless integration
• No grand challenges left or no funding for these
• EC stops funding for research infrastructures
• Nations gradually discourage collaborative
  research
• Nations gradually discourage research funding
• Electronic war
• Immense spam, virus, denial of service attacks,
  electronic pollution in the air, etc. )
• Technical failures in computer science to provide
  integrations (e.g. scalability issues)
• Legal issues work as a barrier (privacy, IPR,
  etc.)
• Risk of massive Single Point of Failures
• Destruction of a major memory chip factory led to
  a major memory price increase and corresponding
  computer configurations

Implications

• Stall research development need toKeep openness
  and co-operativeness Awareness and rapid actions
  on behalf of governments in case of undesired
  events Maintain a democratic basis of governance
  on the political, social, market, and regulatory
  aspects

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Implications

• Where are we? This will have a major impact on
  what sorts of mapping and assessment, forecasting
  and planning, we undertake. Can evaluation and
  research into e-research elucidate? What methods
  for planning follow?
• How distinguishable is e-research from a whole
  range of other factors shaping research?
• If the range of alternative futures really is so
  wide, how best to develop strategy and monitor
  progress?
• How far are there liable to be different futures
  for different fields?
• What are the new paradigms that may elude
  established categorisation and measurement, and
  how can these be identified and shaped (for what
  goals?)?

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End of presentation