Marine Science in Alaska Symposium:

1
Marine Science in Alaska Symposium
THE ARCTIC OCEAN
6 September 2005
2
United States Arctic Research Commission

• Seven Commissioners appointed by the
  President
• NSF Director, Ex-officio Member
• Advise the President and the Congress
• Arctic Research Policy Act of 1984
  (USARC Interagency Arctic Research Policy
  Committee)
• Integrated National Research Policy

3
5 Major Research Priorities 2005-06

• Studies of the Arctic Region and Global Change
• Studies of the Bering Sea Region
• Research on the Health of Arctic Residents
• Research of Civil Infrastructure
• Natural Resources (Oil on Ice Research)

Coming in 2007- 08 Goals IPY Priorities
4
Changing Marine Access in the Arctic Ocean
Marine Science in Alaska Symposium Anchorage 25
January 2006
Lawson Brigham Vice Chair, PAME Deputy
Director, USARC usarc_at_acsalaska.net


5
The Maritime Arctic of Today

• Modes of Arctic Marine Transport
• Destinational Regional
• Trans-Arctic
• Trans-Arctic with Transshipment
  
• Intra-Arctic

6
(No Transcript)
7
Timeless Arctic Marine Transport
8
Icebreaker Transits to the NP Trans-Arctic
Voyages (1977-2005)

• 61 transits to the North Pole (49 Russia,
  5 Sweden, 3 USA, 2 Germany, 1 Canada, 1
  Norway)

17 ships to the NP in 2004 2005 7
trans-Arctic voyages (1991, 1994, 1996, 2005)
25 May 1987 A Walk Around the World!
9
Arctic Sea Ice TransformationsSignificant to
Marine Transport
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

• Extent 3 decrease per decade
• Multiyear Ice/Perennial Pack Ice 7
  decrease per decade
• Thickness 14 to 32 reductions reported
• General increase in the length of the ice melt
  season

10
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
Sea Ice
Observational data show a decrease of coverage
16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

• Decrease is
• largest in
• summer
• Decrease is
• largest since
• late 1980s

Sea Ice Extent (million km2)
Sea Ice Extent (million km2)
Chapman Walsh (2003)
11
16 September 2002
12
16 September 2003
13
16 September 2004
14
6 September 2005
15
16 September 2002
16 September 2003
16 September 2004
6 September 2005
16
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Climate model
projections of sea ice extent 2000 - 2100
March
September
MAR
SEPT
B2 IPCC Moderate Global Scenario
17
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
18
The Northern Sea Route
Year-round Navigation
INSROP (1999)
Ob and Yenisey Rivers
19
Distance Hamburg to Yokohama (nautical miles)
Northern Sea Route 6,920 Suez Canal
11,073 Panama Canal 12,420 Cape of Good Hope
14,542
INSROP (1999)
20
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
75 ice cover
Icebreaking capability
50 ice cover
25 ice cover
21

• ACIA Key Finding 6 Reduced sea ice is very
  likely to increase marine transport and access to
  resources.

22
CCSM September Ice Thickness
September Ice Concentration
Holland 2005
23
Arctic CouncilArctic Marine Shipping Assessment
(AMSA)

• Reykjavik Declaration, 4th Ministerial (Nov
  2004)
• Request PAME to conduct a comprehensive Arctic
  marine shipping assessment as outlined in the
  AMSP under the guidance of Canada, Finland, and
  the United States as lead countries and in
  collaboration with the EPPR working group and
  other working groups of the Arctic Council and
  Permanent Participants as relevant.

24
AMSA Key Points

• AMSA Natural Follow-on to
• - Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)
• - Arctic Marine Strategic Plan (AMSP)
• Inclusive - Host of Stakeholders
• - Many Outside Arctic Council the Arctic
• Circumpolar, yet Regional (Large Marine
  Ecosystems) and Local Focus
• Member State Commitment Support with Data
  Collection Effort
• AMSA web site www.pame.is

25
Arctic Council PAME-led Arctic Marine Shipping
Assessment

• Lead Countries Canada, Finland, and USA
• Timeline 2005 2008
• Survey Instrument for CY 2004 Data
• Inclusive Participation Member States,
  Permanent Participants, Working Groups of the
  Arctic Council Council Observers Industry IMO
  Ship Classification Societies Research
  Organizations Non-Arctic Stakeholders (examples
  Japan, Germany, UK) and Others

26
Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment

• Task 1 - View of Todays Arctic Marine Shipping
  Situation (Data from Member States)
• Task 2 - Projections of Maritime Activity Based
  on ACIAClimate Economic Scenarios (2020
  2050)
• Task 3 - Impacts (Social, Environmental,
  Economic) of Todays and Future Arctic Marine
  Activity
• Recommendations for the Member States and the
  International Maritime Community

27
AOS 94
28
Selected Issues for the Future of the Arctic Ocean

• UNCLOS Enclosure of the Arctic Ocean
• Potential Usage Conflicts Arctic Waterways (ex.
  ship noise / migration patterns / hunting)
• Mandatory Arctic Ship Structural Standards and
  Rules for Arctic Mariners
• Technological Developments Future Arctic Ship
  as a Sealed System
• Requirements Detailed, Regional Sea Ice Records
  (ex. Historical sea ice trends in Alaskas
  coastal seas)
• Extraordinary Changes in Arctic Sub-arctic
  Marine Ecosystems
• New Requirements for Enforcement Presence

29
Todays Maritime Arctic (200 nm EEZ)
(Macnab 2000)
30
Hypothetical Maritime Arctic (After UNCLOS Arctic
76)
(Macnab 2000)
31
Selected Issues for the Future of the Arctic Ocean

• UNCLOS Enclosure of the Arctic Ocean
• Potential Usage Conflicts Arctic Waterways (ex.
  ship noise / migration patterns / hunting)
• Mandatory Arctic Ship Structural Standards and
  Rules for Arctic Mariners
• Technological Developments Future Arctic Ship
  as a Sealed System
• Requirements Detailed, Regional Sea Ice Records
  (ex. Historical sea ice trends in Alaskas
  coastal seas)
• Extraordinary Changes in Arctic and Sub-arctic
  Marine Ecosystems
• New Requirements for Enforcement and Presence

32
The Maritime Arctic of the Future?
Fishing
2
2025
3
1
Su?
2050
Su
Su?
2030
2015
Fishing
Improving Coastal Access