Population Status and Habitat Modeling

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Population Status and Habitat Modeling of
Marbled Murrelets in the Area of the Northwest
Forest Plan
Mark H. Huff, US Fish and Wildlife
Service Martin G. Raphael, Pacific Northwest
Research Station Sherri L. Miller, Pacific
Southwest Research Station S. Kim Nelson, Oregon
State University Jim Baldwin, Pacific Southwest
Research Station
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Key Members of the Marbled Murrelet Effectiveness
Monitoring Team
Diane Evans-Mack Gary Falxa Beth Galleher C.J.
Ralph Chris Thompson Craig Strong Rich Young
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Bio Sketch--Marbled Murrelet
Federally listed 1992, threatened in WA, OR, CA
Distribution Pacific Coast of North America
Breeds April-July up to 50 mi inland from
coast (non-breeding, coastal waters) Nesting
lays egg w/o nest uses substrate (e.g., moss)
on large tree branch Habitat conifer forests w/
large trees
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Zone stratification
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Effectiveness Monitoring for Marbled Murrelet

• Plan Objective provide for persistence

• Monitoring Objective status and trends

Plan-wide evaluations Multiple scales
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Murrelet Monitoring Approach
Population at Sea
Potential Nesting Habitat
Unified design Standardized methods
Model habitat relations and trends
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Marbled Murrelet biology S. Kim Nelson At-sea
population monitoring status and trends Sherri
L. Miller Habitat modeling (spatial and
non-spatial) Martin G. Raphael and Mark H. Huff
Murrelet Concurrent Session
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Population Status and Trends

• Transect surveys
• from boats

• Coastal waters adjacent to Plan

May through July, 2000-2003
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What Does a Population Value of 22,000 Marbled
Murrelets Mean?
Estimated Mean Population (4 years)
Relative Population among Conservation Zones (4
years)
Relative Density among Conservation Zones (4
years)
22,000 birds 95 C.I. /- 5,000

• For a given day

• Nearshore (lt 4.9 mi)

• Suggests that only a small fraction of the total
  population uses this portion of range

No significant change
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Marbled Murrelet Population By Region
Alaska 860,000
British Columbia 55,000-78,000
PNW 17,000-27,000
2-3 of population
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Is the Plan Area Murrelet Population Stable,
Increasing, or Decreasing?

95 CI
Inconclusive after 4 Yrs of Surveys Detect 5
Change w/ 9 Survey Yrs (95) Detect 2 Change w/
15 Survey Yrs (95)
No statistically significant trend
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Habitat Modeling
Spatial (map) habitat suitability Satellite
imagery Habitat suitability classes Two
approaches Amount and distribution
Non-spatial Statistical model Predict
habitat suitability (classes) Estimate amount
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Spatial Habitat Modeling
(1) Expert Judgment Reclassified 22
established vegetation mapping classes
into 4 classes of suitable nesting
habitat (2) Ecological Niche Factor
Analysis Compute habitat suitability scores
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Spatial Habitat Modeling
Federal landshigh quality potential nesting
habitat Most in reserve land
allocations (gt80) In Reservesmost in WA
(44) least in CA (20)
Exclude National Parks most in OR
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Spatial Habitat Modeling
Federal landshigh quality potential nesting
habitat Province scale-- most in
Olympic Peninsula (20)
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Spatial Habitat Modeling
All landshigh quality potential nesting
habitat 40 on non-federal lands
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Spatial Habitat Modeling
All landshigh quality potential nesting
habitat First 10-year period of the Plan
Habitat loss to fire and harvest Rate higher on
non-federal lands
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Habitat Modeling (Non-spatial)
Predictions Higher probability of murrelet
nesting habitat being occupied Closer to
the sea Relatively flat topography Less
solar radiation (topographically cooler)
Lower conifer density (gt10 in dbh) Higher
large conifer basal area (gt30 in dbh)
Only 13 land area (600K ac.) had odds
gt known nesting habitat 99.8 in Zone
1 55 land area had near zero odds
Prediction equation habitat suitable for nesting

1) Calculate odds inventory grid locations as
nesting habitat 2) Use grid location odds to
estimate amount of nesting habitat

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Habitat Modeling (Non-spatial)
Suitable nesting habitat
State Highest Oregon Lowest California
Province Highest Olympic Peninsula
Oregon Coast Range Oregon Klamath Mts.
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Is Marbled Murrelet nesting habitat being
maintained and restored on federal lands?
After 10 Years its too early to determine. More
than 80 of high quality habitat are in reserves.
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Implications of the New Habitat Models?
? Revised amounts and distribution of
Potential Nesting Habitat
? Simple Habitat Classification (Suitable/
Unsuitable) succeeded by Suitability Classes
and GradientsVersatile
? Most Suitable Habitat is in Inland Zone 1
Zone 2 has a low likelihood for nesting
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First Plan-wide Estimates
using consistent baseline data
Potential Nesting Habitat
Population
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The End