Andrew J. Pershing, Cornell University

1
Climate-based Assessment
Forecasting for Ecosystems
in the Gulf of Maine

• Andrew J. Pershing, Cornell University
• Barbara A. Bailey, University of Illinois
• Loretta OBrien, NOAA NEFSC
• Jon K. T. Brodziak, NOAA NEFSC
• Charles H. Greene, Cornell University
• Jack Jossi, NOAA NEFSC

2
Acknowledgements

• Hydrographic Data
• Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Bedford, NS
• Funding
• NOAA Coastal Ocean Program, Synthesis and
  Forecasting
• NSF grant for US participation in ICES

3
Outline

• Motivation
• Applied questions
• Climate variability and ecosystems
• Climate variability in the Gulf of Maine
• NAO--Slope Water--Calanus
• Regime shift in the Gulf of Maine
• Management implications

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Motivation

• Applied questions
• How large is population X? How is it changing?
• Presence/absence of X
• Quality of ecosystem services

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Motivation

• Applied questions
• How large is population X? How is it changing?
• Presence/absence of X
• Quality of ecosystem services
• In most cases, we know the answer for mean
  conditions
• Need information on variability

6
Physical Variability

• Interdecadal climate comes in two flavors
• Interannual
• ENSO
• NAO
• Regime shift
• PDO

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Physical Variability

• Interdecadal climate comes in two flavors
• Interannual
• ENSO
• NAO
• Regime shift
• PDO

Goal is to forecast
8
Physical Variability

• Interdecadal climate comes in two flavors
• Interannual
• ENSO
• NAO
• Regime shift
• PDO

Goal is to forecast
Goal is to detect
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Climate Variability the Gulf of Maine
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Gulf of Maine Climate Variability
1-2 yr
6 mo
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Gulf of Maine Climate Variability
NAO
1-2 yr
RSW Temp.
6 mo
Calanus finmarchicus

• Lags support forecasts
• processes tied to RSW Temp?
• processes tied to Calanus abundance?
• Right whale reproduction

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Gulf of Maine Climate Variability

• NAO-Slope Water-Calanus is nice, but
• just one mode of physical variability
• just one species
• Ecosystem based management requires an
  ecosystem-wide view

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Gulf of Maine Climate Variability

• NAO-Slope Water-Calanus is nice, but
• just one mode of physical variability
• just one species
• Ecosystem based management requires an
  ecosystem-wide view
• So, back to the CPR!

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Regime Shifts in the Gulf of Maine
Calanus finmarchicus
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Regime Shifts in the Gulf of Maine
Calanus finmarchicus
Centropages typicus
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Regime Shifts in the Gulf of Maine
Calanus finmarchicus
Centropages typicus
Oithona spp.
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Regime Shifts in the Gulf of Maine
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Management Implications

• Survival (R/SSB) of 3 stocks was significantly
  different between 1980s and 1990s

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Conclusions

• Two patterns in Gulf of Maine zooplankton
  community
• NAO-Slope Water-Calanus
• Regime shift
• Both patterns are potential management tools
• Future Work
• Whats driving the regime shifts?
• Nonlinear time series analysis