CAUSAL STRUCTURES

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CAUSAL STRUCTURES
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RELATIONSHIPS

• Y a X b Straight Line
• Y f(x)
• THINK BASKETBALL
• Pts_Scored f (practice)
• Pts_Scored f(practice, coaching)

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Causal Model

• (Directionality)

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• Mediating variables
• Skill
• Moderating variables
• Fatigue
• Defensive Effort of Opposition

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• What causes what?
• Points scored
• Opportunity to score
• A 2-way relationship
• Cyclic relationship

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• INDEPENDENT VARIABLE
• INTERDEPENDENT VARIABLE
• DEPENDENT VARIABLE

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• SKILLS
• PERFORMANCE
• COACHING

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• OVERPOPULATION
• LIVING IN LOWLANDS
• FLOODS KILL PEOPLE
• OVERPOPULATION
• MOVE TO FARMLANDS
• URBAN POPULATION SO2 SLOWS DOWN CLEANSING RATE OF
  LUNGS
• SO AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS ARE NOT CLEANSED
  QUICKLY
• CANCER

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GROUP DISCUSSIONS

• NUMBER OF IDEAS
• VARIETY OF IDEAS SUGGESTED
• FEAR OF EMBARASSMENT
• AMOUNT OF HORSING AROUND
• NUMBER OF IDEAS GENERATED
• WILLINGNESS TO VOLUNTEER
• QUALITY OF IDEAS
• SELF CONSCIOUSNESS
• UNDERSTANDING OF MATERIAL PRESENTED
• FEELINGS OF BOREDOM
• GROUP CONCENTRATION
• IRRITATION AT SPEAKER

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CAUSAL LOOPS

• DEVIATION-AMPLIFYING LOOP
• VICIOUS CIRCLE
• REGENERATIVE LOOP

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MULTIPLE LOOPS

• WHICH IS THE MOST IMPORTANT? (UNEQUAL IMPORTANCE)
• NODES WITH MOST CONNECTIONS
• LARGEST LOOP CONNECTING THESE NODES
• IS THIS LOOP DEVIATION-AMPLIFYING
• (IF YES, WILL SELF-DESTRUCT, IF NOTHING IS
  CHANGED?)

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EQUAL IMPORTANCE

• NEGATIVE LOOP
• LOOP THAT CONTAINS ODD NUMBER OF NEGATIVE
  ASSOCIATIONS
• READ AGAIN

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UPTIGHT VARIABLES

• UPTIGHT
• AT THE BORDER NOT ABLE TO CHANGE
• WILL NOT CHANGE IN RESPONSE TO OTHER VARIABLES
• SO VARIABLES DEPENDENT ON IT WILL NOT CHANGE
• (FROZEN SYSTEM)

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• BOREDOM??UNDERSTANDING
• SO BORED.
• UNDERSTANDING AT 0.
• STOPPED LISTENING.
• NO LISTEN, NO UNDERSTAND.
• SO CANT BUDGE SYSTEM?
• EXTERNAL VARIABLE.
• ASK QUESTIONS.. GET PERSON ENGAGED, LISTENING.

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• Over a period of time, the original cause can
  disappear.
• (Figures 3.6 and 3.7)

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Reversing Loops

• Change one sign
• Change one direction

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Non-Loops

• List of variables is incomplete
• Variables are step functions
• Time lags

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Discrediting a Cause Map

• Change direction
• Change sign
• Decouple the two variables
• Dissolve variables (there is no such variable)
• Tighten or loosen coupling
• Presence of another variable
• Curvilinear relationship

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The Hawk and the Grouse

• The Hawk was eating sickly grouse, and thus
  preventing the sickness from spreading.

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Self-fulfilling Prophecy

• I believe I can pass.
• You study you pass.
• I dont think I will pass.
• So why bother to study.
• So you fail.

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LESSON

• In trying to understand or predict, look for
• Interdependencies
• Loops
• Strength of ties
• Direction of influence
• They will help you see longer term consequences